Renalytix Share Discussion Threads

[mr roper] 05/4/2022 10:57

Analyst updates post last weeks earnings call.
HC Wainwright reiterate their $30 target
BTIG cut to $15
JPM cut to $8

[74tom] 04/4/2022 09:54

I have no problem whatsoever with not issuing guidance if it's too early to be sure of what you should be guiding to & I actually thought the analysts questions & tone were markedly more positive than the December call.

They are 'vendorized' in 16 VA centres which is well ahead of expectations (Vendorization means the process to officially make a party into a vendor in order to transfer VA funds to that party.) Once testing kicks off in each of those then it should dramatically increase run rates - just averaging 10 tests a week per hospital would equate to $1.8m revenue per quarter...

Add in commencement / scale up of testing in Wake Forest, Atrium, University of Utah, Singing River, St Joseph's Health + Mount Sinai and it's clearer as to why JM seems quite confident they can hit their 2023 street revenue target (Stifel has $39.1m). That would be just over 40k tests per annum or 800 per week. In Sinai alone they are targeting 300 per week in the next quarter.

So yes, the next few quarters are crucial to proving they can execute, but they've got all of the ingredients to do so. A major strategic partner would also really help catalyse the share price recovery(Stryker or Insulet has to be a candidate with the new non-exec director buying $500k in the financing round)

[mr roper] 04/4/2022 09:08

Wasn’t overly impressed by the call last week and that’s the first time I’ve said that. Could sense the analysts getting frustrated over lack of guidance and lack of any colour from mgmt to help them.

I think the next two quarters are critical regarding some forward guidance and recognisable metrics.

[andypar] 03/4/2022 19:17

From the conference call last week it would seem that revenue is maybe a quarter behind the streets forecast.

Q1 $500k (July - sept 21)
Q2 $700k
Q3 $1m ?? (street forecast $1.7m)
Q4 $1.7m ???

I think revenue will take off in Q1 (July/Aug/Sept 2022) to around $6m. Renal is still not prepared to issue guidance, not surprisingly as it is still early days.

We can expect a deal to be announced with a major strategic partner in the next few months.

[andypar] 03/4/2022 17:13

It would appear that Millenium are capping the price in the US. It could get very expensive very quickly if they allow the price to rise, sentiment to change, investors buying more etc etc.

[cisk] 01/4/2022 17:41

one of the nice things with the price going up - apart from us long holders keeping the faith, is that Millennium will be heavily out of the money!

Yes RENX will need to raise further cash at some point. Yes it's new. Yes there are a lot of unknowns.

But: if you believe that the combination of AI and medicine is the next game changer - then RENX is probably a good stock to have.

[74tom] 01/4/2022 17:14

It certainly is, however we've all seen how quickly it can turn around. If we can get some volume then it might get interesting - you'd think now would be the perfect time for an institutional investor that took shares in the US IPO at $13.50 to double down - the story hasn't changed, it's just taking longer to get going due to Covid.

[lottsgold] 01/4/2022 16:55

Looking better in the US

[1jat] 31/3/2022 18:40

It seems news gets a big UK mark up that is scythed down when the US opens….

[toffeeman] 31/3/2022 15:35

And wish I had waited

[nimbo1] 31/3/2022 15:04

quite the swing!

[toffeeman] 31/3/2022 10:42

I did buy a few this morning :)

[nimbo1] 31/3/2022 10:38

Well I am pleased renx got their money and price is up a bit - first thing I have bought which has seen a small increase in quite a while. Hope it holds. I would like to see more revenue coming through for renx - as always the case in these roll outs feels like it takes forever but in the real world things take a lot of time. Its why it could be v valuable if they get it right and the platform is widely used... execution in this sort of area is incredibly time consuming, expensive and hard = moat.

At these sorts of prices its a bet with asymmetric upside. Over 5 years you'll make 10x or more or renx will fail to achieve what they are aiming to.

[74tom] 31/3/2022 09:59

"Millenium increased their short on March 15th - worth watching the FCA data tomorrow."

Worth watching NASDAQ this afternoon ;)

[toffeeman] 31/3/2022 09:39

Millenium increased their short on March 15th - worth watching the FCA data tomorrow.

[74tom] 31/3/2022 09:34

"We now estimate the current serviceable, patient population with insurance payment availability for KidneyIntelX testing at greater than one million."

This is the standout figure today in my opinion, a realistically serviceable TAM of >$950m...

I estimate they need to hit $17m per quarter in revenue to reach operational breakeven ($12m loss currently, assuming a 70% gross margin on testing once they scale, stable overheads).

So they basically need to access around 7% of their current TAM per annum to reach breakeven.

That's 72k tests a year / 18k a quarter / 1400 a week.

Remember their target with Sinai alone is 300 by the end of the current quarter.

Very much looking forwards to getting more colour on this afternoon's call, but all the clues are there...

[longshanks] 31/3/2022 09:33

The market appears to like the results. I have to say I nearly fell out of bed when I saw the level of cash burn!!This is a fast growing business with a decent product so hopefully this investment in sales feeds through to a dramatic increase in revenue before the remaining cash runs out. The limited placing was probably due to investors expressing an interest rather than any need.

[hpcg] 31/3/2022 09:08

PUGUGLY - I disagree about the price of the fund raise having been known for a long time. It was obvious the company needed more money and that puts off buyers and encourages sellers, hence the price drift.

I bought back in in a small way this morning. Spread is pretty off putting. I'll most likely restrict myself to the US market from now on.

[mr roper] 31/3/2022 08:15

Yup, all about the ramp up and execution now. Cash worries consigned to the wayside.

[wan] 31/3/2022 07:58

Very good news to get the fundraise out of the way, which was no doubt weighing on the share price.

I note the following too -
In the fiscal second quarter, we made a number of one-time investments pertaining to the recruiting, equipping, training and deploying of our salesforce, and associated marketing and other expenses to enable them to be most successful in the field. We are happy with the sales infrastructure we now have in place to pursue the large VA and commercial hospital revenue that is available to us. Much of this is included in one-time expenses that are not repeating, and indeed our quarterly burn rate is already reduced versus fiscal Q2, and we plan to exercise continued prudent cash discipline.
(END)

Testing volumes came in under expectation (mine was already set for a slow start), but volumes are already confirmed as increasing in Q3, and clearly with more systems come on stream, testing will increase further and accelerate again as additional hospital systems begin to come on stream into fiscal 2023 (commencing July 2022) and beyond.

[pugugly] 31/3/2022 07:50

"$3.625 per Ordinary Share (c.276 pence)- Now how long has this been known?

Now we know why the share price has been so weak recently - Someone somewhere must have been leaking. (imo)

[74tom] 31/3/2022 07:43

Wasted? I mean the breakdown is in note 9… the vast majority ($23m) was spent on labour + professional fees building out the sales teams etc, as testing revenue scales we should see operational leverage coming through…

Excellent news on the funding, just 2.2m new shares issued today which include 1.7m to Sinai + management, notable that Christopher Mills has bought 551k / £1.6m. The convertible loan terms are also very good indeed, especially the ability to up the conversion floor price.

Millennium should have fun buying 1m shares back!

[pilkersa] 31/3/2022 07:34

Looks like they wasted a vast amount on admin. Too much foie gras for the top team. Hopefully they will spend this money more sensibly

[mr roper] 31/3/2022 07:22

Fundraise taken care off. Cash runway for 24mths.
Results generally look decent but more interested in the future than the past.

Looking forward to the call this afternoon on KidneyIntelX rollout progress. Already online at 16 VHA centres and estimated patient market already above 1m patients. Plenty low hanging fruit