Renalytix Share Discussion Threads

[74tom] 16/3/2022 17:42

Would love to see it, they've got it back under $6 again now - I suspect our best bet is someone like Randy Baron deciding to load the boat or convincing another fund to do so - he was massively bullish as recently as October last year and there has been nothing but positive news since (share price at publishing was $22)



Ps. Just checked Shortracker and they're now up to 1.31%, so another ~45k shares sold on the open market on Monday alone.



Have the lost control of their Algo?!

[wan] 16/3/2022 16:58

74tom...I do try ;-)

I don't do social media as such, but what we need now is a social media hype from those millennial and Gen Z investors in the US that trashed short bets a few months ago with a massive short squeeze. And for good measure JM to make an appropriate announcement and finish the job off.

I can imagine it now, "Small company Renalytix, a company already improving and saving lives, is being unfairly shorted by a large corporate global investment management firm." Keep buying ;-)

[74tom] 16/3/2022 15:12

Ps. Really interesting post as always @Wan, you do some impressive research :)

[74tom] 16/3/2022 15:12

Millennium International are getting very greedy IMO. Up to 1.25% short as of 14th March, up from 1.11% on the 9th, that means they sold ~100k shares in 3 trading days.



I'd also bet they were behind the flood of sell orders on NASDAQ a couple of minutes before close last night & again this afternoon.

The problem they have is that if they stop selling then the share price will rebound from such low levels, so they have to keep selling and getting in deeper.

You can also bet that JM will do all he can to boost the share price or look at alternatives to equity funding if they continue to sit on the price.

An equity investment from a big pharma deal would be ideal... If AZN invested $25m for a 10% stake it would set the cat amongst the pigeons...

[hichom] 16/3/2022 13:41

Millennium Partners is probably betting they will run out of cash before mkt sentiment changes. Assuming they need a buffer of 2-3 qtrs, a $10 million/qtr cash burn means they will have to raise again around end of June.

[mr roper] 16/3/2022 08:59

Good spot, wan

[wan] 16/3/2022 08:55

I just noticed that I forgot to add the following connection/news release -

Renalytix AI PLC
19 May 2021

ATRIUM HEALTH, WAKE FOREST BAPTIST HEALTH, WAKE FOREST SCHOOL OF MEDICINE AND RENALYTIX PARTNER TO ADVANCE KIDNEY HEALTH

Partnership marks a long-term commitment to reducing impact of kidney disease in large populations via integration of earlier risk assessment paired with comprehensive disease management

NEW YORK, CHARLOTTE AND WINSTON-SALEM, N.C., May, 19 2021 -- Renalytix AI plc (LSE: RENX) (NASDAQ: RNLX), Atrium Health, Wake Forest Baptist Health and Wake Forest School of Medicine announced a partnership to implement an advanced clinical care model designed to improve kidney health and reduce kidney disease progression and kidney failure in high-risk populations.

"Detecting patients at risk for rapid progression of kidney disease at early, treatable stages is challenging. This effort is critical to optimizing care and improving outcomes using kidney protective medications, specialist referrals and lifestyle changes," said Barry I. Freedman, M.D., John Felts Professor and Chief of Nephrology at Wake Forest School of Medicine and Chief Medical Officer of Health Systems Management, Inc., the operator of Wake Forest Baptist's outpatient dialysis clinics. "KidneyIntelX can help us better allocate clinical resources across Atrium Health's southeastern service region. Patients with diabetic kidney disease at high risk for progression to the need for dialysis or a kidney transplant can be detected earlier and receive intensive blood pressure, blood sugar, cholesterol and lifestyle management and referral to specialists. We expect the outcomes to be very positive for our patients and for our health system."

"The partnership with Renalytix is a significant milestone in carrying out our commitment to continually innovate to improve population health in our region," said Terry G. Williams, Chief Population, Corporate and Government Affairs Officer of Atrium Health and executive leader in iQ Healthtech Labs. "Initiatives focused on the generation of unique data-driven insights to improve patient outcomes enable us to deliver effective education and care pathways to improve care and outcomes. Together, we are innovating to achieve clinical excellence and are laying the foundation for patient and physician access to advanced prognostic precision medicine in a major chronic disease."

"Our commitment to advancing kidney health with KidneyIntelX is strategically aligned with Atrium Health and Wake Forest Baptist Health's goal to advance care delivery using innovative precision medicine guided care," said James McCullough, Chief Executive Officer, RenalytixAI. "Renalytix values this opportunity to demonstrate clear, informative evidence of the value of a comprehensive care solution in a region of the United States particularly challenged by diabetic kidney disease. That evidence is important for clinicians, patients, regulators and payers."

Full release -

[wan] 16/3/2022 08:05

Food for thought.

Recall 'part' of Renalytix strategy -

Expand Our Product Portfolio.
We believe there are significant opportunities to expand our technology platform through incremental version releases of KidneyIntelX as well as through extending KidneyIntelX application into additional populations of CKD patients beyond those with diabetes, including patients of African ancestry with the APOL1 high-risk genotype. We also intend to develop solutions for use in other large chronic disease patient populations, like cardiovascular disease.

Additional data factors can be added to the KidneyIntelX algorithm to address different target populations. For example, the next generation test is being developed to address the increased incidence in kidney disorders amongst individuals of African ancestry by incorporating genotyping for APOL1.

Renalytix believe many patients will benefit from the use of KidneyIntelX for multiple tests throughout the course of treatment to provide ongoing risk assessment, enabling care pathway optimization, escalation of treatment and long-term disease management. Further, published data suggests the population of patients that could benefit from our solutions will continue to grow along with the anticipated increase in the occurrence of type 2 diabetes, a significant risk factor for developing CKD, and obesity, the primary driver of type 2 diabetes. We also intend to extend KidneyIntelX application into additional populations of CKD patients beyond those with diabetes, including patients of African ancestry with the APOL1 high-risk genotype.

In this regard, I note the following article by Renalytix Co-Founder, Girish N. Nadkarni, MD -

March 15, 2022

Sharing genetic testing with patients of African ancestry can improve kidney outcomes

“The magnitude of decrease in systolic blood pressure, as well as the proportion of individuals with APOL1 high risk that made positive lifestyle changes, was surprising and gratifying,” Nadkarni told Healio.

Full article -

Connecting a few more dots -

Wake Forest University Health Sciences and Barry Freedman have rights to an issued US patent related to APOL1 genetic testing.

Rapid APOL1 genetic testing services are based on the research of Barry I. Freedman, MD, John H. Felts, III Professor and Chief of Nephrology at Wake Forest. Freedman is an active clinician-researcher whose research focuses on genetic causes of kidney and cardiovascular disease, hypertension and type 2 diabetes, particularly in African-Americans; as well as clinical outcomes in chronic kidney disease and after renal transplantation.

Dr Freedman is part of Renalytix Scientific Advisory Board.

Renalytix recent announcement -

Renalytix Launches myIntelX, Providing National Physician Access to KidneyIntelX Testing Platform
March 9, 2022

myIntelX will be launching in conjunction with KidneyIntelX going live at Atrium Health, and will expand testing services across all Renalytix healthcare provider partners


About Atrium Health

Atrium Health is a nationally recognized leader in shaping health outcomes through innovative research, education and compassionate patient care. Atrium Health is an integrated, nonprofit health system with nearly 70,000 teammates serving patients at 37 hospitals and more than 1,350 care locations. It provides care under the Wake Forest Baptist Health name in the Winston-Salem, North Carolina, region and Atrium Health Navicent in Georgia. Atrium Health is renowned for its top-ranked pediatric, cancer and heart care, as well as organ transplants, burn treatments and specialized musculoskeletal programs. A recognized leader in experiential medical education and groundbreaking research, Wake Forest School of Medicine is the academic core of the enterprise, including Wake Forest Innovations, which is advancing new medical technologies and biomedical discoveries. Atrium Health is also a leading-edge innovator in virtual care and mobile medicine, providing care close to home and in the home. Ranked among U.S. News & World Report’s Best Hospitals for cancer treatment and in eight pediatric specialties, Atrium Health has also received the American Hospital Association’s Quest for Quality Prize and was the recipient of the 2020 Centers for Medicare & Medicaid Services Health Equity Award for its efforts to reduce racial and ethnic disparities in care. With a commitment to every community it serves, Atrium Health seeks to improve health, elevate hope and advance healing – for all, providing more than $2 billion per year in free and uncompensated care and other community benefits.

[homebrewruss] 15/3/2022 20:12

Have you timed it perfectly Nimbo? A good day in the states or maybe that's just you buying :)

[idomeneo] 15/3/2022 16:49

74tom

1. That was in response to the mention of shorters by another poster.
2. It is a fact that US politicians of both parties insider trade. See this from a professor at Wharton on Zeroes Tv "At his big-data forensic accounting lab at Wharton, Professor Dan Taylor reveals a lot of shocking info:

Insider Trading is near record levels
Congress has better stock trading than pros
Yet, enforcement is no where!"
3. Growth companies are fine in a bull market when they can tap shareholders

Looks like pharma is catching a bid today in the US, so all boats are rising.

[nimbo1] 15/3/2022 15:53

Made my first re-entry buy on Nasdaq today.

[74tom] 15/3/2022 15:51

Sure, it’s a fact that on 5th March you said;

‘I think the short interest is focusing on Theranos /AI as reasons why FDA does not happen.’

On the 6th March you also said;

“The problem is that both Dems and Reps trade what they want when they want so would have had knowledge of MCIT maybe a year or more before it happened.“

So what was that implying? Insider trading?

Today you said;

“from your timings that could mean we run out of money without a placing.“

You could say that about every growth company that isn’t cash flow positive.

I’ll not be engaging anymore as it’s pointless. Pleased to see what is hopefully the start of some support on NASDAQ at $6, will return to posting here when there is more clarity on the future.

[faz] 15/3/2022 15:47

I think comments here are now reflecting the reality of what we hope this company is managing ie a balance between expansion of revenue and cash to drive it. Of course what could not be planned is the bear market for risk. Having had the world manage the biggest risk over the last two years, now compounded by Russia's needless aggression, the risk perceived here had proved to much for many. If the science was good then it remains good, but I along with seemingly lots of others ditched between 800p and 600p, when I thought a bounce might happen, because of the commercial risk -
- that they got the business wrong while getting the science right; that FDA approval would be secured way back; that more clients would be placing orders, that Nasdaq placing, in whatever form, would support better than AIM. If I were in now I'd stay in- what is there to lose? I'll go back in when FDA approval or some other material event happens to assure me the science can be materialised b the team in charge into a commercial success.

[74tom] 15/3/2022 12:57

Idomeneo, your posts remind me of a troll on a football forum pretending to support a team when they actually hate them. What you are saying is akin to going on a Spurs forum and posting that you think Harry Kane will leave on a free transfer or that he's going to retire at 28 to focus on other opportunities.

It's complete nonsense to suggest RENX will run out of money, just like it was nonsense to say that raising $50m will double the share count or that shorters are here because they think RENX is like Theranos. Nobody who was invested here would be talking such rubbish, so please quit with the 'we' and go find something else to troll!

[wan] 15/3/2022 12:11

Idomeneo...That's a bit of a silly statement to make!

Aside from the fact that the management have been increasing fixed costs on the basis of line-of-sight or receipt of revenues, you would need evidence to understand what that revenue generation was looking like now and going forwards to fully understand cash burn.

The revenue evidence and forecasts are important, in my view they are coming very soon.

[idomeneo] 15/3/2022 11:48

Wan - from your timings that could mean we run out of money without a placing.

[idomeneo] 15/3/2022 11:27

I have it in front of me on Stockopedia, or more up to date 72m* £2.21 ie £159m. A mere £16m less than the close last night. I'm assuming that the credit markets get worse (in Europe people are defaulting already). Risk appetite is on the floor. By the time we raise it could be halved or more again. I've lived through things like this several times, until the raise never assume that the bottom is in, and even then it probably still won't be. Next went down to 9p ish in the post 87 crash. What happens if they have to fill the pockets of a broker with shed load of shares and warrants to get the thing away? If it's such good value it would be reflected in the price.
Chris Mills owns 12.69%. He's in the market using his money to buy other stuff e.g. Rockwood Realisations etc, so he is choosing not to. Why?

[wan] 15/3/2022 11:16

When dealings commenced in the UK Renalytix had just raised funds at a price of £1.21 per share, but that was back in 2018, and arguable Renalytix have materially evolved since then (far too many individual elements/achievements to reference).

But with markets now clearly in a different place, a catalyst announcement might be needed, including revenue insights, before going back to the market. Certainly I am expecting ordering/revenue forecasts to start featuring very soon (and the market certainly needs it!).

Fwiw, I am minded to expect a slow start in terms of KidneyIntelX ordering from September 2021 (well and truly baked in), but with conversion and ordering picking up in the second quarter (Ending Dec 2021), and for a notable ramp being experienced in the 3rd quarter (Jan-Mar 22), with insights providing confidence of sustainable growth in physician ordering going forwards (e.g. VA Sales Ramp).

I appreciate that we are in challenging times, but at some point the realisation will sink in that it could cost a lot more than the current market cap to develop a company that would emulate one in Renlytix position, including but not limited to IP, commercialisation started, and the advanced state of pending FDA approval!

[idomeneo] 15/3/2022 08:52

Two weeks ago you would have paid up to 360p, today it's 240p to sell, halved in a month. In the United States there isn't a single holder that is in the money as the price is well below the first day trading. I remember the bear market of 2000-2002 for small caps just kept grinding down. We need a change in market sentiment, sector sentiment then FDA plus sales to get this moving. The more we go down, the worse the dilution gets. They could need to double the share count to get $50m dollars away.

[74tom] 14/3/2022 20:05

I think they know that right now it’s an easy win, institutions like Amati aren’t going to be getting sign off for the type of material purchases that would turn this around & new retail investors will assume it’s a basket case and stay away.

Like I said last week, in the biotech bear market of H2 2016 Exact Sciences fell from $30 to $5, they even raised cash at $23 in the July but it made no difference in the short term.

First step to recovery is finding support, however it’s anyones guess where that will be as the NASDAQ share price is at an all time low…

[idomeneo] 14/3/2022 16:48

74tom It's always better to buy this tomorrow! Considering the overhyped stuff that is in this sector I'm surprised to think that this is the best short for them. Perhaps they know something we don't. All very perplexing. Worst day in its sector. Again.

[homebrewruss] 14/3/2022 16:37

200p the natural conclusion of the chart head and shoulders?

[74tom] 14/3/2022 15:46

I doubt they would have been able to raise £60m on AIM... it certainly is bottomless on NASDAQ though, on course for a 12th straight daily decline. I'd assume the shorts have a target price in mind but it will start to get silly soon...