Renalytix Share Discussion Threads

[faz] 15/2/2024 21:42

Its an AI product, ie it uses algorithms to project and test scenarios relating to the diseases that can affect kidneys and then indicate which is these is the likeliest path for the patient under scrutiny. Someone told me off on here for reducing it to excel macros but I believe thats what it is at the end of the day. And really it is not an invention but an application. If others can build alternative pathways to produce the same diagnosis where is the value? I suspect that is the issue.

[jonjoalex] 15/2/2024 17:37

It may be a world class product (or it may not be) but doctors have been reluctant to use the tests hence the miserable sales volumes. Other products have also come onto the market in the last few years that help in the fight against kidney disease that may make the Renalytix product redundant. The recent share price movement is not based on fundamentals.

[idomeneo] 15/2/2024 17:05

One of the early tells was that the FD and MD were selling $ms in August 2021 at $14. Part of it was the madness of covid and everything going to the moon.

The board might have argued that they waited forever to get an answer from the FDA. The problem with that is that they have had that approval for a long time now, and even though they appeared to be trying to get their ducks in a row so that they could start selling as soon as approval came through, they failed to make any sales subsequently. At the end of 2021 they were forecasting $19.8m sales for 2022 and $64.5m for 2023. It looks as though the doctors are not interested in this product.

This board has had a number of people posting bullish comments relentlessly for years. There was also a "secret" board which is always the sign of an over-hyped company. I think there is a general belief that if a)there is a perceived market for the product and b)there is FDA approval, then these two things guarantee success. The problem is In the US you need a massive team to go and sell a product to physicians and you can't do that as a tiny company with limited cash. Plus I don't think the product will ever sell in profitable quantities.

[markth126] 15/2/2024 16:25

Can someone please say in a nutshell why the drop from £12 to 10p? Just generically, clearly more than markets? What happened or was it just overhyped nonsense

[faz] 15/2/2024 14:56

For those with no business experience posting here, or who have never managed an M&A operation. You dont make an offer on a business losing $38m a year by making them an offer equivalent to market cap. And you certainly dont do it if their sales are miniscule and have not grown in spite of FDA clearance. There is no business here and the market cap is a chimera. If a company thought they could turn this nonsense into a profit they certainly would not make an offer reflective of that profit nor its potential. There are no assets to strip this down to a lean mean cash cow; there is only bad management of a tiny niche product. A hype and a pension plan, but not for investors I suggest.

[babbler] 15/2/2024 10:45

You don't need to wait for 1430. It's down 28% pre market there.

[latifs100] 15/2/2024 10:38

waiting for usa reaction, at 2.30

[firestarter1] 15/2/2024 08:34

Pumpers buying at 70p got smashed

[mortal1ty] 15/2/2024 08:32

This product has been on the market for a long time now. I appreciate it takes time to sort out insurance etc but to only be doing this amount of sales is pathetic. That s why they won't get funding. 20 million is not a small amount to raise from a small cap funds.

[angus17] 15/2/2024 08:27

They have known about the funding issue for months and months. if they haven't sourced funding by now then deserve to fail. With the potential of this product and the market etc etc how can they not get funding. I reckon the deal is in the bag. lets roll the dice and see.

[genierub] 15/2/2024 08:24

Recover your losses in SALT.

Just gone parabolic at 100p.

PARTNERED WITH AGI!!!!

[babbler] 15/2/2024 08:13

As I said.... Hope you all sold the meme ramp last few days. Doesn't matter if in higher you sell ramps to rebuy when ramps end.

[mortal1ty] 15/2/2024 08:12

oh yeh, good point. So they effectively won't be able to pay salaries in a few weeks.

[homebrewruss] 15/2/2024 08:00

Wasn't it 2 months of cash left at the end of December?
Even less now?

[mr roper] 15/2/2024 07:48

That is not a great report. Sales revenue is terrible.

[mortal1ty] 15/2/2024 07:31

So 2 months maximum of cash left...

[mortal1ty] 15/2/2024 07:29

This needs a 50% dilution just to survive another year lol.

[babbler] 15/2/2024 07:13

Cash and cash equivalents totaled $5.6 million as of December 31, 2023. Administrative expenses for the six months ended December 31, 2023 were $18.4 millionHmmm

[mr roper] 14/2/2024 13:14

Sales are the key. If they cant get significant sales growth at Mt Sinai..they will not be able to do it elsewhere without a partner with a)deep.pocketa and b) an existing sales network.

As for cash..they must be operating on fumes. A raise is coming. BTIG probably helping them out with that.

[1jat] 14/2/2024 10:42

Where is this heading?

The recent bounce implies there may be a future for the company, The prospects were bleak with Chapter 11 insolvency likely and this is still the default position if no new cash is raised.

So the future is:
1 insolvency
2 a sale/takeover
3 some funding is obtained
3a the company limps along but the sales fail to materialise and we go back to square 1
3b sufficient funds are raised to enable the company to reach profitability! And there is commercial success

For current shareholders a takeover is immediately the best option although it does mean giving up on 3b (however illusory that future might be.

[zen12] 14/2/2024 07:59

US bounce $1.41 close up 6%!

[waltzing] 13/2/2024 23:55

How many shares did you get for £10.70 ?

[toffeeman] 13/2/2024 17:41

>>pilkers me too

[pilkersa] 13/2/2024 16:59

I paid £10.70 for mine back in 2021!