Regal Petroleum Share Discussion Threads

[j drama] 23/12/2012 05:16

This should be a good time for RPT/Energees director Alexey Timofeyev to present at the annual Ukrainian conference with SV-53 in production & the initial results of the new well MEX 105 known.
Notice the bi-line of the conference re action on increasing local gas production.
If we're looking at potentially 3,000+ boepd production by then he can say that RPT has doubled it's production:)

[j drama] 21/12/2012 20:03

Interesting day of trades, 110k sells went through at 30p but bid & offer remained unchanged.
A buyer accumulating or a buy order being filled IMO.

[jojo_jo] 21/12/2012 18:36

29% is a good strategic holding, being just below the mandatory bid threshold, yet close enough to buy the requisite additional shares to trigger such a bid. It is also close to the 50.1% required to (usually) get control, and, if 70% or 75% of votes/shares are required to take over the business, 29% effectively blocks any other party buying it. So, a very good (and quite common) holding level for a predator company.
IMPO/DYOR

[officerdigby] 21/12/2012 10:43

J Drama 21 Dec'12 - 05:42 - 13682 of 13683 0 0


It can't be to just make a profit, the numbers are too small.
Even if they paid 38p & sold out at 150p it would only be a profit of around £100m (two unlikely extremes IMO).
Sorry I can't see it just being a passive investment.


Too small for them but perfect for me!. ;-).

[j drama] 21/12/2012 05:42

I would agree but why would A1 be interested in buying just a 28.65% share in RPT?
They would have no power & the amounts to them are peanuts both in production & value.
It can't be to just make a profit, the numbers are too small.
Even if they paid 38p & sold out at 150p it would only be a profit of around £100m (two unlikely extremes IMO).
Sorry I can't see it just being a passive investment.

I also can't see Energees & A1 getting on at all, their comment re RPT needing 'quality management' is a slap in the face for a start.
Energees appear to be angels compared to A1.

I expect that we will see it all come to a head after the next production update around Feb.Soon after IMO A1 will make an offer to Energees.

[buy and hold] 21/12/2012 05:27

J Drama,
imo the things are more simple.
The guys have a huge of money (after selling their share in TNK-BP) and they want to invest .
They prefer to do this in countries they know better ,instead to west.

[j drama] 21/12/2012 02:31

RPT realised $422 per m3 in the last interims, inline with the 2012 value quoted above.
The proposal would appear to be a Russian disincentive to what Ukraine is trying to do which is become more gas independent (I.e import less Russian gas).
Buy more Russian gas to get a discount & produce less rather than more locally.
Effectively paying money to continue buying Russian gas.

I wonder if the Russian Oligachs interest in RPT is a play to get control & stop the planned up scale in production?
If it is, it would be a further indication of the potential of RPT's licences.

[j drama] 21/12/2012 02:16

Gazprom hints at 17% yoy cut in gas price for Ukraine in 2013
Gazprom (GAZP RX) might agree to reduce the natural gas price for Ukraine to USD 352/tcm in 2013, Interfax reported on Dec. 18, citing its source familiar with the matter. The embedded supply volume for 2013 is 40 bcm, according to the source. The allegedly offered price is 16% below of what's assumed in the 2013 Ukrainian budget  (USD 421/tcm). The average gas price that Ukraine will pay in 2012 is estimated at USD 423/tcm. 



Concorde Capital: The discount looks unexpectedly generous for Ukraine, while the theoretical price is not beyond the market: the current gas spot price in the EU, which is EUR 27.4/MWh, is equivalent to USD 335/tcm of Russian gas. The key question is why has this news leak appeared and what political concessions from Ukraine are expected to secure this price: integration with Customs Union and sale of Ukrainian gas transit system are among the straightforward ones.

The key implications if the deal is done:

- Profit erosion of independent gas producers: Kulczyk Oil (KOV PW), JKX Oil & Gas (JKX LN), Cadogan Petroleum (CAD LN) and Regal Petroleum (RPT LN).  The companies' natural gas selling price is pegged to the price of Russian imports. This, combined with a 50% increase of the natural gas royalty for local producers effective Jan. 1, indicates a high risk of profit decline in the sector.

- Profit boost of gas-intensive companies: Ferrexpo (FXPO LN) will gain 3.1% in EBITDA; Metinvest's (METINV) EBITDA would be 4%-5% higher from the move, and Astarta (AST PW) stands to benefit in 2.9% of its EBITDA.

- Revived for chances to renew cooperation with the IMF: Ukraine's image and budget liquidity will benefit. The government's reluctance to raise gas tariffs for households is among the key milestones in IMF discussions.

- Inflated risks for Ukraine's independence from Russian political influence

The fly in the ointment of Gazprom's offer is gas volume: Ukraine needs to import about 33 bcm of gas annually, which is 18% below Gazrprom's  tentative proposal. The discount at a higher supply volume makes Ukraine's total gas bill unchanged, thus leveling Gazprom's generous proposal for Ukraine's current account.

   

[buy and hold] 20/12/2012 10:33

The market looks like to step awaiting some good news,imo...

[j drama] 20/12/2012 08:24

Much better spread today, only 1p.

[mark knopfler] 18/12/2012 18:19

I wonder if Pope pitched up perhaps, possibly preceding the perpendicular precipice.

[targatarga] 18/12/2012 16:28

at least were rising slightly into the close!

[mark knopfler] 18/12/2012 14:30

Or yesterdays close was the pre agreed level at which the27% transaction took place.

[j drama] 18/12/2012 13:02

The rise yesterday took nearly 1m of volume, that has been wiped out today by volume of 127K.
Either the MMs are playing a blinder or there were some decent sized sellers as a headwind yesterday.

I guess we're back to waiting for further developments....

[mark knopfler] 18/12/2012 11:51

The grand old duke of moscow....

[j drama] 18/12/2012 11:43

Trading it?
You have to be joking. I'm a long term holder, fotunately we're not far off my average.

What today clearly illustrates is that if you have a decent sized position & you want to sell you need to do so while the share price is still rising.
It's pretty obvious that whoever was buying yesterday (& day before) stopped once the share price got to the 41-42p level & after that the share price started tanking.

[mark knopfler] 18/12/2012 10:06

Good shout JD. I got it wrong again!

[mam fach] 18/12/2012 10:02

No smoke without fire.
None of us know what is going on behind the scenes.
Sit back & enjoy the roller coaster ride.

[sos100] 18/12/2012 10:02

j drama you sound like your trading this!

[j drama] 18/12/2012 09:55

Down 6% on 50k of volume.

[j drama] 18/12/2012 08:34

If there there is very low volume the share price will fall back on small sales unless there is an order from a big buyer. It's happened too many times here, 10%+ fall on less than 50k sales.Look how it fell back from 42p yesterday.
There also likely to have been some T trade buys the last few sessions.
All IMO but I think the chances are it'll finish the year below 40p, I hope I'm wrong.

[mark knopfler] 18/12/2012 08:28

I dont. I suspect the majority of the shares bought recently are not for a 10p ish return....

[j drama] 18/12/2012 08:25

Spread back to 2.5p so it looks like the buyers & the fireworks have ended.
I expect some profit taking & fall back from those who bought in the last few sessions.