Redrow Share Discussion Threads

[bigbobjoylove] 25/9/2007 18:06

shows the desperation these builders have in flogging houses.

[bigbobjoylove] 25/9/2007 14:15

Even in the good times housebuilders have only ever commanded a maximum pe of 7/8. What about the bad times that has started happening for the builders, a pe of 4 at most.
Last years EPS was 52.9p last year they only matched the previous year, h2 presented a fall in earnings. Next year completely different ball game, well some think housebuilders could see profits halved i think they may do maybe 60% of this years. So worst they could do next year would be eps of 25p maybe a lot less and best say 31p. Suddenly they look very expensive, look where the shares have come from rather than where they've been. Below 200p is not unachievable and a very realistic proposition right now. These stocks are getting de-rated all the time, Redrow looks to have alot further to fall than most. Longer term 120p is not a silly price given the housing market looks dire.

[jamesgkenny] 24/9/2007 14:17

devon lad..CR
well done,

not holding and no position just wondering how much further to fall, all the showhouses are seeing very low to no footfall as the interest rate debate/ northern wreck fiasco take their toll

[cockneyrebel] 11/9/2007 10:14

Don't exactly sound upbeat going forward do they?

CR

[cockneyrebel] 05/9/2007 13:53

Have any holders taken a good look at the recent statement?

H1 was up over H1 last year but if you look H2 was actually down on H2 last year looking at the annual sales figures.

Reckon it's a risk holding RDW ahead of the results in a week's time.

CR

[jamesgkenny] 08/8/2007 15:21

devonlad
not looking like thats a great move hope it was just small devon potatoes, barratts in for this now methinks

[devonlad] 24/7/2007 15:32

Evening standard gets paid loads of money from people selling houses, price crash is happening for sure. Spoke to an estate agent, all homes in our area are going below the advertised price and that is in Devon, possibly the strongest growing house market in the last 10 years in the UK. Shorting RDW down to £4 as it is building a whole load of homes nearby, trying to sell them at ridiculous prices and they aren't selling!!!!

[redtelephone] 21/7/2007 09:25

redtelephone - 19 Jul'07 - 14:04 - 842 of 843 edit


Price boom for London's luxury homes
Evening Standard
19 July 2007, 9:25am

Quick - get into NTA ( Northacre) before the results in August.

redtelephone - 19 Jul'07 - 14:04 - 843 of 843 edit


Price boom for London's luxury homes
Evening Standard
19 July 2007, 9:25am

The value of luxury homes in London has continued to soar despite rising interest rates which have sent a chill through the rest of the housing market.
The Building Societies Association said mortgage approvals in Britain tumbled 22% last month to £4.7bn following five interest rate increases in less than a year.

But upmarket estate agent Savills said 62% of London homes priced at more than £4m in the first half of the year were sold to overseas buyers.

Prices in areas such as Mayfair, Belgravia, Kensington and Chelsea have risen 29% in the past 12 months.

'While interest rates fears and affordability pressures are starting to bite the mainstream housing market, the prime housing market is still being driven by a different set of factors,' said Harriet Black, associate director of residential research at Savills.

Quick - get into NTA ( Northacre) before the results in August.

[jamesgkenny] 07/6/2007 13:23

true but why is share price down? the market thinks interest rates have arrested demand, todays rate news should be a driver for this but....I can see 500 coming before a rerating

[uk113106] 06/6/2007 11:35

End of year is June, it is very common for builders to reduce, offer incentives to buy coming upto year end, in fact best time to buy a new house is now.

[jamesgkenny] 06/6/2007 11:33

bargain territory normally, although many builders are now heavily discounting properties on some of the slower selling sites like in the bad old days... not uncommon to see 15% on offer, many in-house valuers are routinely marking down by similar numbers

[mike24] 04/6/2007 13:26

another qtr % rise coming up which is not needed,
which just increases equity withdrawals, debt paying off debt
barc snowed under with requests for loans, yet mortgage applications falling,
the bid rumours av disappeared,

croc wos an ace with this share, don't predict nothin, follow the trend

[bigbertie] 08/5/2007 09:40

that rumour evaporated quickly!

[bigbertie] 04/5/2007 21:07

so what happened this morning? I have searched for relevant news / comment but found nothing. Nice rise anyway.

edit - ah, it's the old Persimmon rumour again, but then there have also been rumours over the weekend of Persimmon bidding for Taylor Woodrow, and even for Berkeley! I don't think I'll order the champagne yet.

[t1mbob] 04/5/2007 11:07

strong day for redrow - m and a activity.

there was talk that the taylor woodrow wimpey merger would be announced today so wait to see what that throws up but hasnt had much affect on them today.

[jamesgkenny] 03/5/2007 15:49

interest rate rises and long shadow of barratt-david wilson homes merger,remains a buying opportunity at anything under 600

[t1mbob] 19/4/2007 09:27

Whats going on here?? all the houseys down - but redrow fallen from 665 to 615 in a matter of days!

loosing my nerve - anyone have any views as to why the drop?

[bigbertie] 17/4/2007 10:12

Redrow performance looking a bit feeble compared to today's numbers from Bellway. RDW do have a longer landbank, but if land prices fall...........

[bigbertie] 10/4/2007 11:04

Persimmon CEO and FD have just sold shares (in Persimmon). Clearly they are not about to launch a bid for anyone (or they would not have been allowed to trade). So I am guessing there will be no bid for RDW till at least the autumn. (Barratt, TWOD and WMPY are all too busy anyway, and private equity would probably prefer to buy a bigger landbank, or a niche player). All IMHO of course, but I'm afraid I have sold again for now.

Edit - actually just checked the landbank - it's not too bad. However the forward p/e is already they same as MacCarthy & Stone when they were bought on the highest multiple ever for a major builder, so not much more upside. Anyway good luck to all - the price seems to be recovering now! All just IMHO as always.

[mike24] 05/4/2007 11:55

debt heading for 1.5 trill
london housing chart in an almost vertical straight line up
massive civil servants wage bill

and merv is still sitting on the fence, what a balls up
NZ lowest mortgage rate 7.99% and the prop market still red hot,

onwards and upwards, well for another month

[nigelbarker] 30/3/2007 11:50

is something happening

[mistertibbs] 29/3/2007 16:41

I thought hbos held a stake in gladedale? Are they the bandits that bought C & M on the cheap a few years ago when I held them?

[manrobert] 29/3/2007 08:14

10 bob.thanks for that.it may be of interest that jack petchy recently bt a 2.5% stake through his investment co.treffnick.he is usually a good judge of asset values and generally invests in property companies and motor dealers.