Redrow Share Discussion Threads

[bigbertie] 24/6/2005 11:26

Yearend loomimg. There should be a statement at the start of July. Crest and Berkeley statements have been better than I had expected. With Debut Homes powering ahead and the higher dividend RDW should be good. Here's hoping.

[bigbertie] 03/6/2005 21:29

Well my last post seems to have killed discussion on here! Anyhow a nice rise of nearly 20% since early May. I would be tempted to take profits but things seem to be going well for RDW and they are an obvious target in the next housebuilder takeover which must be imminent IMHO.

[bigbertie] 12/5/2005 21:06

ydderF - the basis of booking sales is stated in each company's report. I think most book a sale on legal completion (I have just looked at Barratt's report and they do). Crest Nicholson used to book revenue on plastering but changed to "build completion" a few years ago.

Edit - and Westbury report. (Turnover is) "contract price from legally completed new properties......and land sales where unconditional contracts have been exchanged."

The statements about a % of annual target being met are quite different, and you need to read exactly what each company says. In March Barratt said that completed sales plus committments equated to 90% of the year target. Is that good or bad? Not clear, unless you know whether that is higher or lower than usual, and (as you say) if there will be a higher than usual proportion of defaults in the committments.

[ydderf] 12/5/2005 09:23

my guess is that most builders in general have booked 'sales' against deposits on current in progress build-outs and will find that some, probably an increasing number, of punters do not want or are unable to pay the balance to complete because they were hopeful flippers into a now un-rising market......this must account for a substantial part of statements along the lines of "x% of our sales target for the year have already been met" - I hasten to add that I am not suggesting that this particular builder has done this, but clearly from the winding up of property promoters recently, which were specialising in buying off plan and forward selling, someone, somewhere is going to get hurt....

[lafiamma] 07/3/2005 15:41

LONDON (AFX) - Redrow Group PLC will be the first large UK housebuilder to
meet the government's challenge to sell new homes for 60,000 stg, when it
announces its results this week, according to the Financial Times.
Redrow will start its new range of housing, called Debut, at a site in
Rugby, where the cost of a one-bedroom apartment will be 54,995 stg, rising to
119,995 stg for a two-bedroom, two-storey home, said the paper.
New methods of construction will cut cost of building new homes to about 55
stg per square foot - just over half the cost of a standard build, the Financial
Times quoted chief Paul Pedley as saying.
John Prescott, deputy prime minister, last year lambasted the housing
industry for making record profits at the expense
of first-time buyers who were
being priced out of the market.

[lafiamma] 02/3/2005 09:42

Sector consolidation begins....



laf :o)

[mike24] 17/2/2005 17:07

breakdown/costs
land 40%
labour 30%
planning etc 20%
profit margin 10%
RDW has stolen the march on the rest of the industry,
the changes have not come easily or cheaply
the first site Rugby is where land is a lot cheaper than the south east
MMC still has to overcome the stigma of postwar prefabs
factory production needs to be at a steady constant production
competition from swedish/canadian flatpacks
rdw are converting a big old house to flats at leek, peak district from 107k, this is where I would put my money, these will double/treble through
a 25yr morgage cycle

[lafiamma] 16/2/2005 11:21

added 411 (after switching out of BVS @ 690 - added PSN & WMPY too)

[jamesgkenny] 31/1/2005 13:38

thanks for that lafiamma
Travis Perkins and Wolseley have both gained far more over the past 3 months than these builders and their growth story is for the same fundamental reasons, the supply of new housing does not equal demand, we are seeing prices of new homes steady in yorkshire with no price reductions just some builder incentives to move certain plots and/or the less location-proof sites.

[lafiamma] 31/1/2005 08:51

LONDON (AFX) - Shares in Bovis Homes group PLC, Bellway PLC and Crest
Nicholson PLC underperformed the broader market in early deals after UBS
downgraded its rating on the stocks to 'neutral' from 'buy' on valuation
grounds, dealers said.
At 08.40 am, shares in Bovis were 8-1/2 pence lower at 614, Bellway lost 9
pence at 855, Crest Nicholson was unchanged at 371 pence. Meanwhile, the FTSE
250 gained 16.2 points at 7,122.5.
In a note to clients on UK housebuilders, UBS said it still expects solid
earnings in the sector as new house prices should remain resilient, reinforced
by low unemployment, unstretched mortgage affordability and a housing shortage.
UBS highlighted signs of improvement in the housing market, with market data
from Hometrack and Nationwide suggesting more stable prices, and houses starting
to sell a little quicker.
The broker argued that the sector should outperform if 2005 starts better
than 2004 ended.
It raised its price target on Bovis Homes to 700 pence from 690 pence, for
Bellway to 930 pence from 890 pence, and kept its 405 pence price target
unchanged on Crest Nicholson.
Elsewhere in the sector, UBS raised its target on Barratt Developments to
780 pence from 760 pence, for McCarthy & Stone to 815 pence from 755 pence, for
Persimmon to 880 pence from 850 pence, Redrow to 475 pence from 447 pence
Westbury to 590 pence from 565 pence, Wilson Bowden to 1465 pence from 1540
pence and George Wimpey to 525 pence from 510 pence.
All the stocks mentioned above are rated a 'buy' at UBS.
The broker said its preferred stocks are McCarthy & Stone, Barratt,
Persimmon, Wilson Bowden and Redrow.

[jamesgkenny] 19/1/2005 12:49

have it on good authority that they are the target

[lafiamma] 19/1/2005 10:53

Barratt Chairman was questioned on possiblity of acquisitions this morning. He didn't rule them out.



laf ;o)

[jamesgkenny] 19/1/2005 10:43

Impressed with resilience of this, keep holding and accumulating in expectation of bid from Barratt

[jamesgkenny] 12/1/2005 16:40

morgan stanley exiting position over a week or so possibly the reason for the above

[jamesgkenny] 10/1/2005 16:28

This is all sell volume again for something like 5 consecutive sessions and yet mms are taking up all the stock and keeping it..... there is something in the wind here for sure, great results and statement notwithstanding

[bigbertie] 19/12/2004 21:14

a bid from anyone would be welcome - Barratt is possible, but Persimmon too since it has said it will consider acquisitions and was very pleased with its last big one (Beazer). Doesn't Steve Morgan still have a lot of shares - so anyone wanting to buy Rdw could get a quick start by giving him a call.

[one for the money] 16/12/2004 17:28

What a finish! Looks a bit like a leak?

cheers
1-4

[jamesgkenny] 16/12/2004 16:36

lolomimi
this is a nice day, someone else must think so, where are the redrow raters?

[jamesgkenny] 09/12/2004 14:56

a deal in the offing on this but may not surface until Feb/March

[lolomimi] 09/12/2004 11:02

Nice rise again today

[jamesgkenny] 06/12/2004 13:23

Hi been over on the BNH posts and have in the euphoria neglected RDW, in mid november I had a conversation with someone who should know who may ..I honestly dont know what you are able to say without being done... who said that the only way Barratts can get their sales target for units completed for next year would be by acquistion. When prompted RDW was mentioned. Cant say anymore except i switched out of Barratts into RDW.

[one for the money] 27/11/2004 15:16

JGK: Where is that news from?

[jamesgkenny] 18/11/2004 15:36

Meanwhile in a quiet corner away from the carnage and sheer fraud perpetuated by MM's on BPRG holders, the realisation dawns on many, once more, that the construction sector remains distinctly solid.

Expect a bid from Barratt around 400 imminently.

[bigbertie] 14/10/2004 10:35

Rumour of possible bid from Barratt doesn't seem to have ignited the share price!

[zzaxx99] 04/8/2004 21:12

Anyone looking at this as a potential short if it breaks 325p (down to 300p initially)?