Redde Northgate Share Discussion Threads

[bearraider] 27/6/2008 12:06

Go

Looks like 1st July will be big day for NTG and our AWP/EV co's with finals expected here and trading statement there

[tomkite] 27/6/2008 07:21

I really cannot believe what the market has done to this stock.When you look at who holds big percentages of stock ie AXA-STANDARD LIFE etc.They have consistently met and beaten market expectations year after year and yet they are nearly two thirds down.I have sold half of mine as I am finding it hard to workout what is going on.

[bearraider] 26/6/2008 22:20

Go

results are out Tuesday not Monday

[gohunk] 26/6/2008 16:03

pity, was holding up ok a.m.
Steveglobal called it right then...lol...
i'd hoped it might recover late on...but doh...never mind, always tomorrow, rumour is of a big hitter buying tomorrow, isnt it always lol.
we'll see.

[gohunk] 25/6/2008 21:00

I'm reliably informed they will be buying once closed period subsides, no way of knowing when or how many, but from what i understand they have not got a clue why the share price is taking such a hammering as they are more than happy with performance etc, given the forseable issues.
Dont mind hanging onto them, not here for a quick buck, happy to wait a while for decent returns.

[bearraider] 25/6/2008 20:22

The results are just part of it, the current trading, outlook, cashflow and debt position will help determine how the market values the share. Share buy back, directors buying will would also help but as you say in this market who knows.
May just have to hold them for a while to see a good return.

[gohunk] 25/6/2008 19:59

oh, they will, and a bit more 'i suspect' lol.
so, your prediction then, if 'they do' meet expectations, is a 10% lift ? lol...be nice, 10 to 12% if the exceed you rek ?? mate, the way things have been of late i could see them dropping on good results, which would be a wounda.

[bearraider] 25/6/2008 18:01

Go

first blue day in a long time.

Funny how it hit 370p turned up then back to 370p then turned up and has stayed up. Sure wish I had followed my own advice and waited till 370 p to buy (bet you wish you had to) we would both be sitting on an 17p uplift rather than a couple of pence shy of break even! It would be good if it went up a bit more before Tuesday.

Another company I run a thread on drifted down (not plunged) before the finals I saw 135/6p as support bought at 138p (mid price went to 136 week before finals) it gained a few pence then about 13% on the finals (they said they would meet mkt expec they did - just), fallen back a couple of pence since but now holding steady, I sold half my holding at 156p.

I am hoping for something similar on NTG, I think it is oversold pre finals, they said they will meet mkt expectations, I think they will so lets hope they do.

[gohunk] 25/6/2008 16:48

have held up nicely today, tomorrows another day though, who knows, be interested to hear if steve globals people still waiting for 2.50 though....

[bearraider] 25/6/2008 15:43

Go

If price holds and good buying starts might buy some more to trade next few days.
Ones I have will hold till either we get a real smart move up and/or will wait to see the figures next Tuesday before fulling deciding a strategy. Will not be waiting for £12 though at that price i would not be interested in holding them!

[gohunk] 25/6/2008 14:55

lol...nice one bear, i wish you luck.
hope she holds, as i say, long and strong together we stand ...or fall...lol.
we'll be fine, keep the faith mate, next question is, you seem like a man with some tactical nouse, whats your strat, double up and dump ?...we wish, or what you gonna be happy with, struggling to see 12.00 each to be honest at present.

[bearraider] 25/6/2008 11:06

Go
I doubled my holding to cut my avg to just under 387p (389p inc costs) so we are both at about the same price entry point, interesting rebound started but will it last??

[bearraider] 25/6/2008 10:36

Go

I expect the results will be close to the mkt expectations because that is what we were told to expect. They could be upto 10% either way without an RNS.

Yr Ending Rev(£m) P-tax(£m) EPS.. P/E PEG Grth..Div.. Yld
30-Apr-08 563.75 ...83.09 .90.56p 4.7 0.4 +11% 28.91p 6.6%

But I agree it may have limited affect on the share price in current market, but if the forward seems OK there may well be some substantial buying, including share buybacks, (will cost them less than the div yield)

[bearraider] 25/6/2008 10:33

NTG debt

Some (shorters mainly) talk about a 2.5% rise in NTG debt interest, costing NTG an extra £20m pa in interest.

1. Nearly 70% of NTG debt is at a fixed rate, for 2,3 5, 7 % 10 years (all under 6% most under 5%)
2. NTG has an agreement with it's banks for a % above EUROBOR not LIBOR on the 30% balance of the funds not fixed as they are in Euros.

Eurobor increased around 1% in the two years between 1.5.06 and 30.4.08, The increased interest paid in the 2006/7 year already includes some of the rise. since 1.5.08 Eurobor has risen 0.6% this is because the market is now factoring in 2 rises of 0.25% in the next 12 months as the ECB raises rates to control inflation.

30% (not fixed) of £865m (total debt) = £260m at 1.6% rise (over last 27months)
= £4.152m pa extra interest now compared to if NTG was in the same debt position 27 months ago.

Whilst increase in interest paid will affect profit (if it can not be passed on) we are talking of probably an increase of about £2-3m in the 2007/8 year.

There will be a bigger increase than this shown in the accounts when the interest paid is converted to sterling as the £ has fallen from e1.41 to e1.20 in the 2007/8 period. NTG euro earnings from Spain and Eire will be higher due to the exchange rate so there may be little net effect on profit/EPS

[gohunk] 25/6/2008 09:48

so what kinda results you expecting, my monies on good results, but how will that impact on the sp, given current climate, i'd say sadly not much, but not a lot making sense at present.

[bearraider] 25/6/2008 09:28

Go

Any expansion to another country will be small to start with so will have limited impact on a company the size of NTG - they will probably move very carefully considering current credit situation.

In trading statement on 19th March stated that results would be in line, and outlook at the time was OK.- no warning since and prelim finals in less than a week.

Credit default in Spain is insured (as I have already stated twice) so limited BAD DEBT loss there. The Spainih fleet was expanded 12% in year to 31st April 2008 hardly sounds like a market that has gone belly up. IN APRIL 2007 the press were talking about NTG vulnerable because of fall in Spanish construction on the Costas. NTG has already stated that it has limited exposure there (3 depots). Most Construction that NTG is linked to is EU / government funded and the fall off there comes in 2010/11. NTG is well aware of this which is why it is seeking to broaden the client base to prepare for it happening

Uk market NTG has been limiting fleet growth for some time, initially because of some uneconomical pricing in several regions in 2006/7 - more recently because they were approaching the envisaged fleet size for the depots/business they have. Hampsons was an addition because it traded in areas they had little exposure to.

[gohunk] 25/6/2008 08:22

what about germany and polond....cos thats where they're heading....

[queeny2] 25/6/2008 03:31

for a long position you HAVE to wait for trading statement. risk heavily on downside, as a warning, imho, could stuff it another 30%, whereas a confident statement won't be believed, maybe +10%. bad risk.

the company operates in the worst two economies in Europe. Spain is stuffed, which is why i ws worrying not jst about util and rates, but residuals and bad debts.

[bearraider] 24/6/2008 16:49

I always believed 370 - 375p was a good signal here on NTG (the bottom of the last sell off in 2002/3 and the start of the long climb from there to £12.) And now I wish I had waited till the share price got there.

The 370p held and it looked like it was going to recover a bit today, the turn down at the end of day took it back to retest the 370p, as they say tomorrow is another day.

After that around 340 -350p is all that is left below that to offer any support at all (Which is where I have set my stop loss) I will not commit any more funds here unless I can see a clear turn or reason to turn like the results.

[gohunk] 24/6/2008 15:07

bear, does that mean you're content you've had some really good signals here then ?

[bearraider] 24/6/2008 14:35

Take a look at the sell trades somebody must have an auto trade set up to sell 29 or 30 shares every minute. weird!! there are hundreds of them today, why? some broker must be real happy getting a fee every minute for selling £115 of shares.
I wonder if some computer program has got a glitch in the system.

[bearraider] 24/6/2008 14:12

me to

got to many shares in good companies that have share price on the floor, if only i had sold some of them when i was in profit i could buy loads more now with same money

still got some reserves but need really good signals to invest anymore anywhere at present.