Record Share Discussion Threads

[the other kevin] 07/1/2011 16:58

Somebody seems to have been offloading in chunks of 25,000 shares today. I'm a nervous holder.

[spoodle] 06/1/2011 12:40

The MTF pro champion (subsription service) bought this last year at 57.8p, still have it as a buy at this price. They have spoken with co. and appear confident price has fallen too far.
Hope they are right, have bought in ISA this week.
GLA

[the other kevin] 04/1/2011 12:55

I'm listening and am about to reinvest the divi.

[142minty] 31/12/2010 09:28

At a PE of 9 ( est 4p EPS YE)this looks too cheap at 36p. Recent one big sell off due to ex dividend and worry over dividend cover going forward but without knowing anything re pot new mandates ( and /or AUME outflows)which we will know more about in jan its hard to say which way this will go in the short term. MM's certainly playing down price to create liquidity ( and anxiety !). Genuinely dont think insiders will let this go too low. Im not selling any at this price.

Best of luck to all and happy new year ( am i talking to myself?)

best

Minty

[masurenguy] 29/12/2010 18:00

How much lower can this one go ? Market cap has fallen by £276m or 78% since their IPO 3 years ago. That represents a fall of roughly £7.5m every month in the 36 months since they went public !

[qvg] 24/11/2010 20:27

thanks Minty, I agree. it dropped enough today for my limit order to kick in

[142minty] 24/11/2010 18:18

Dynamic hedging now the main driver and makes up the main bulk of AUME. exits have been in the Absolute return product but we knew that would happen. The emphasis is now on ;picking uop more avtive hedging clients. The reason why earm=nings havent slipped much more from last results despite more client outflows is beacuse the main ,few clients who make up the vast majority of AUME have been with them for years and have / are going nowhere. Number of clients leaving doesnt bother me. the AUME and management fees havent slipped that badly at all because the big guns are still in. Yet again im positive on this one. Im expecting this to turn into an effective active ( and passive hedging)company and US clientys have done well with this product/service recently.i think the carry trade buinsess will continue to shrink but they will pick up large hedging customers by year end.How many other equities can you find out there that provide this yield - and company assure us despite cover of around 1.4 the 4.59 is safe for another year . My take on that is that they will have some chunky new customers to announce by year end but thats just my take on it......!!!! as usual DYOR.Ive always been attrac ted by the yield on this stock and originally it wil come good....to what level i do not know but we have diversified the product range , a couple of new emerging market prods and geting down to what they started doing...currency hedging.best of luck. remember it takes nothing to take this stock up or down ...no way will the multi millionaire insoders , all well pass their IPO lock in periods , let this slip down too deep..Even if you are a pension funds and youd been in the AR product for 7 years you wouldnt have made money but you wouldnt have lost any either. take a look at the interim presentations....it will take a while to build this product up at all as they will need sustained performance. remeber absolute Return is a long cyclyical play ,l still in its infancy,.But this company as i have always said is about currency hedging......

Minty

[qvg] 24/11/2010 12:46

The Currency Carry Trade business is definitely in decline. Maybe this is a short or medium or long term trend. But it seems to me that their Dynamic Hedging service is growing nicely to replace it, and they have a couple of other opportunities for growth. I am happy to Hold, and Buy more if it drops any further

[masurenguy] 24/11/2010 11:29

It looks like their established Currency Carry Trade business was decimated by the consequences of the credit crunch and has not shown any signs of recovery since then either. Their return from this seemed to have peaked in the summer of 2007 just prior to their 160p IPO later that year (didn't the private shareholders do well in hindsight!). Consequently their AUME has fallen consistently since then. They seem to be putting more emphasis on their Dynamic Hedging service but that has not made up the shortfall from the rest of their business.

Is this now a busted flush or is it just suffering a major contraction on a cyclical basis ? I don't know the answer but I'm still keeping an occasional eye on this in case it turns out to be the latter !

[andyh21] 24/11/2010 11:09

What's the snag here masurenguy?? Recent director purchasing, good dividend and eps growth! margins have been squeezed a little and whats with the working cspital? they're sat on a fair bit of cash, what are they doing with it? Not took too much time looking so i'm being a tad lazy!

I've had this on the watch list for some time and looking for a speculative entry! Thanks, Andy

[masurenguy] 24/11/2010 10:47

Still no sign of any turnaround here !

16 November 2010:
INTERIM REPORT FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2010

Record plc, the specialist currency manager, today announces its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2010.

Financial highlights:

· AuME1 $30.8bn down 9% during the 6 mths to 30 Sept 10

· Profit before tax was £7.1m (6 mths to 30 Septr 09: £8.2m)

· Management fee income for 6 mths to 30 Sept 10 fell to £15.0m (6 mths to 30 Sept 09: £16.1m)

· Average management rate of 14.7 bps for 6 months to 30 Sept 10 (6 mths to 30 Sept 09: 14.8 bps)

· Operating margin 46% (6 mths to 30 Sept 2009: 49%)

· Basic EPS of 2.26p (6 mths to 30 Sept 09: 2.68p)

· Interim dividend unchanged at 2.0p per share payable in Dec 10

· Subject to business conditions & outlook, intention to keep the total dividend payable unchanged in the current financial year at 4.59p per share

· Shareholders' equity increased to £29.6m (30 Sept 09: £28.3m) and included £27.1m cash (30 Sept 09: £27.1m)

[masurenguy] 15/9/2010 14:49

Up 22% today on a modest volume of just over 200,000 shares, aggregated from of a lot of small Buys !

[142 minty] 04/8/2010 16:45

M.

Its all in the original prospectus and/ or annual reports and / or presentations and cpublicly stated comments from NR.Im just a privateinvestor who has been buying and selling along the way ( mostly buying)but have kept a long position ( somewhat unsucessfully) as divis here have always been useful.....

best

minty

[masurenguy] 04/8/2010 16:25

"exactly the same thing happened when it was private and when they first launched the AR product which took over from the hedging mandate business. This has now reversed and i know that theey are speaking to a large number of pot hedging mandate clients at the moment"

142 minty - thanks for your comments which suggest that you have some particular insight here and also knowledge of their pre-IPO history. Do you have connections at Record or are you an active practitioner/investor in a tangental financial sector ?

[142 minty] 04/8/2010 14:54

M.

It sure has and the AR product has had a bad run = more client outflows.It will be hard for them to attract any new business fo awhile in this as well for awhile but since last last trading statement we are up about 3% (which is geared). The share price is down cause the company has been shrinking - however exactly the same thing happened when it was private and when they first launched the AR product which took over from the hedging mandate business. This has now reversed and i know that theey are speaking to a large number of pot hedging mandate clients at the moment which will boost current level Aume considerably as long as we dont see loads more AR outflows .I agree that we may have to wait awhile ( or forever(!)) befiore we see the AUME and performance fee levels we saw prior to IPO but i genuinely believ in this business model over the long period - as their bigger clients are pension funds that is what they are interested in too , especially if they can sustain a healthy(ish) yield on the stock in the meantime...

best

Minty

[masurenguy] 03/8/2010 14:42

142 minty - 28 Apr'10 - 78: SG, Dont agree. Mas's/Bloomberg's comments re Carry trade were reflected in Neil records comments in last interims re the necissitation of "normal" market conditions to retain the viability (and margins?) in the carry trade model and that is what we are seeing now.

Maybe - but the fact is the share price has fallen by another 25% since then !

[142 minty] 17/6/2010 12:15

Now nearly 6 million buys.....up nearly 13 % at 3.20pm

[142 minty] 17/6/2010 11:02

3 million buys this morning!!!!!!!!!

best

Minty

[142 minty] 16/6/2010 11:43

Look at the presentation out today - it will show that original absolute return clients have still done well since 2003 inception. Expecting some fairly spectacular new active hedging mandates to be announced shortly - have absoluitely no worries here at all.......

[p bear] 15/6/2010 17:39

Probably talking to myself here.... but anyway...

Nothing surprising about figures today - second-half achievement was identical to the first. Someone sold down in the drop shown in results. Loved the phrase 'when the world economy returns to more normal fiscal and monetary policies' in connection to the absolute return product they still champion.

No fault in books, even in a difficult year, operating margin was held at an amazing 49%, cash of £22m (10p per share) and debt of zero. Divided 4.6p per share dividend supports a 9% yield. A payout that is not well covered by earnings of 5.4p per share.

Still look cheap at below 50p at about 8 time earnings less cash. Although did note that one client was 23% of the customer base. Let's hope he stays happy!

[p bear] 09/6/2010 11:27

SP down, yield up. Results 15th JUN.

[p bear] 03/6/2010 19:56

You will read nothing but good write ups about REC, although the share price never agrees. Tipped recently by well known tipping service this appears like a great investment, although time will tell. I agree with BOTH the last two posts, but in part for each. Current 7+% yield does indeed look too good to be true.

Looking for more director buys.

[tinvan] 04/5/2010 09:57

Good write up by Paul Hill in this weeks's Money Week.

[142 minty] 28/4/2010 10:19

SG

Dont agree

Mas's/Bloomberg's comments re Carry trade were reflected in Neil records comments in last interims re the necissitation of "normal" market conditions to retain the viability (and margins?) in the carry trade model and that is what we are seeing now - these AR strategies work over a very long period in order to exploit economic "bubbles" etc - the recent crisis has created challenging moements for the Record model and we are still coming out of it . Also this "worry" over the carry trade is only really primarily relevant to the absolute return product which will pick up the more we get back to common state of play in the opportunities inherent in trading between high and low yielding currencies - and this will return. Record are adapting to the situaution by picking up more hedging mandates - $7 billion from 2 US pension funds recently - this more than plugged the gap of AR outflows over that quarter - and the fee margins are the same as with AR mandates .They also say that although they mayy lose some mre AR customers they are confident to pick up more Active hedging customers over the coming months.Along with all this is the upside of new products - emerging market and index funds linked to the FTSE Record FB indices
On top of this , Numis's last note on Record estimate the same 4.59p dividend for the next 3 years - this would have been "blessed by the company" so although the dicidend cover doesnt look as safe as it did a couple of years ago i am still expecting REC to yield on same basis - there is plenty of cash in the business,no debt- REC will HAVE to maintain div. No director sales at all despite end of lock up awhile ago.I can see the frustartion for some PI's but right now should be seen as a buying opportunity at this level and that is what i have been doing...Good luck to all