Record Share Discussion Threads

[masurenguy] 18/1/2011 15:27

You can never access broker notes on his site - I don't bother trying now as it's a waste of time.

[142minty] 18/1/2011 14:03

nellie

i cant get that broker note - who is it from Edison or Numis?

So we have AUME up by around 2% to $31.4b beating Numis's target of $30.1b - a pleasant surprise. Slightly intrigued ( due to performance)by the extension of a further $500m by one client in the AR product. $200m more through passive hedging and the intimation of further mandates in active hedging by next q2 2011. Obviously the $600m FX effect is significant.
We also lossed 10 customers ( not bothered by that)
Probably too early to get too excited but i have strong feeling we are going to see some new sign ups on active hedging which could be significant. Re the dividend we should remember that management can always adapt the bonus pool element for staff to enable a payment of decent dividends.This is a very cash generative business and im sure they will have to support a significant divi one way or another - perhaps not to the same extent as before but new mandates = more fees and the big accounts are and have been there throughout the strife.Feeling more positive now.This has got to be a very cheap entry opportunity now. I just want to see what this recent seller will do in the coming days....

Best

Minty

[nellie1973] 18/1/2011 13:23

Broker upgrade

[horndean eagle] 18/1/2011 08:15

Tide has turned for me. First increase in AUM for a while. If they can add a few clients and then report rising AUM we should see a marked increase in profitability. Hopefully today's interim statement will be the turning point.

[letsgetbizzay] 18/1/2011 07:12

Excellent results.

[topvest] 17/1/2011 19:55

An increase in AUM is highly unlikely, given recent trades. I will be watching closely though. I fancy investing here, but need to pick the right moment.

[shammytime] 17/1/2011 16:18

Last chance to get in before tomorrows results - Increase in AuME and it will also be interesting to see if there's any comment re: icap.

[masurenguy] 15/1/2011 12:24

Unless they have staunched the decline in AuME and their corresponding revenues then they will almost certainly have to cut the dividend. They have already flagged this possibility in their last interim statement since a yield of 14% is against declining revenues and profits is not sustainable. I think that the market has assumed this will happen and this is already factored into the share price.

"Board's intention, subject to satisfactory business performance and outlook, is to seek to maintain the dividend in the current financial year at 4.59p per share. The Board will review the dividend policy ahead of the year ending 31 March 2011 financial results in June 2011 to determine an appropriate dividend policy based on the prevailing business environment at that time."

The fundamental remain strong with over £20m in cash and a positive net cashflow of circa £9m in H1. Full year post tax profits should still be in the £8.5m - £9.5m range so what is really required to engineer a turnaround here is an improvement in their investment returns in order to first staunch the decline in AuME and subsequently to reverse this trend through improved performance. Hopefully the trading update might contain some indicators that there might be some light at the end of this tunnel !

[mali7] 14/1/2011 16:51

Fear has brought this one down, but the patient and brave one to top up now could be rewarded long-term...

Cash balance and div still supports these shares well, even if div cut a bit, yield at current level is very good, and potential with turnaround and improvement in trading will provide future re-rating. Good luck holders.

[shammytime] 14/1/2011 14:47

I'm hearing Tuesday's report will contain a few pleasant surprises. ICAP also sniffing around...

I'm topping up my holding at these levels - 90p per share buyout sounds good to me :-D

Roll on Tuesday!!

[142minty] 12/1/2011 16:58

i hope the update ( 18th january ) will have some positive news in terms of AUME.I'm expecting more bad news on AR product and good news ( by year end , poss now) on more dynamic hedging accounts. I think the share price has completely overreacted ex dividend and this now looks a good buy based on YE EPS of 4p.My gut feeling is that we could have another poor update this quarter but withsomething very positive to come hereafter.These sales are completely driven by insecurity over dividend.

best of luck and still not (too) worried !

minty

[masurenguy] 12/1/2011 16:18

There was a Q3 trading update on January 19th last year and on January 20th in the prior year, so I would expect to see one next on Thursday or Friday next week.

[topvest] 12/1/2011 14:52

Looks fairly grim here at the moment - watching from the sidelines, but this could be an attractive investment once the business stabilises. Have they a trading statement coming up or IMS?

[the other kevin] 07/1/2011 16:58

Somebody seems to have been offloading in chunks of 25,000 shares today. I'm a nervous holder.

[spoodle] 06/1/2011 12:40

The MTF pro champion (subsription service) bought this last year at 57.8p, still have it as a buy at this price. They have spoken with co. and appear confident price has fallen too far.
Hope they are right, have bought in ISA this week.
GLA

[the other kevin] 04/1/2011 12:55

I'm listening and am about to reinvest the divi.

[142minty] 31/12/2010 09:28

At a PE of 9 ( est 4p EPS YE)this looks too cheap at 36p. Recent one big sell off due to ex dividend and worry over dividend cover going forward but without knowing anything re pot new mandates ( and /or AUME outflows)which we will know more about in jan its hard to say which way this will go in the short term. MM's certainly playing down price to create liquidity ( and anxiety !). Genuinely dont think insiders will let this go too low. Im not selling any at this price.

Best of luck to all and happy new year ( am i talking to myself?)

best

Minty

[masurenguy] 29/12/2010 18:00

How much lower can this one go ? Market cap has fallen by £276m or 78% since their IPO 3 years ago. That represents a fall of roughly £7.5m every month in the 36 months since they went public !

[qvg] 24/11/2010 20:27

thanks Minty, I agree. it dropped enough today for my limit order to kick in

[142minty] 24/11/2010 18:18

Dynamic hedging now the main driver and makes up the main bulk of AUME. exits have been in the Absolute return product but we knew that would happen. The emphasis is now on ;picking uop more avtive hedging clients. The reason why earm=nings havent slipped much more from last results despite more client outflows is beacuse the main ,few clients who make up the vast majority of AUME have been with them for years and have / are going nowhere. Number of clients leaving doesnt bother me. the AUME and management fees havent slipped that badly at all because the big guns are still in. Yet again im positive on this one. Im expecting this to turn into an effective active ( and passive hedging)company and US clientys have done well with this product/service recently.i think the carry trade buinsess will continue to shrink but they will pick up large hedging customers by year end.How many other equities can you find out there that provide this yield - and company assure us despite cover of around 1.4 the 4.59 is safe for another year . My take on that is that they will have some chunky new customers to announce by year end but thats just my take on it......!!!! as usual DYOR.Ive always been attrac ted by the yield on this stock and originally it wil come good....to what level i do not know but we have diversified the product range , a couple of new emerging market prods and geting down to what they started doing...currency hedging.best of luck. remember it takes nothing to take this stock up or down ...no way will the multi millionaire insoders , all well pass their IPO lock in periods , let this slip down too deep..Even if you are a pension funds and youd been in the AR product for 7 years you wouldnt have made money but you wouldnt have lost any either. take a look at the interim presentations....it will take a while to build this product up at all as they will need sustained performance. remeber absolute Return is a long cyclyical play ,l still in its infancy,.But this company as i have always said is about currency hedging......

Minty

[qvg] 24/11/2010 12:46

The Currency Carry Trade business is definitely in decline. Maybe this is a short or medium or long term trend. But it seems to me that their Dynamic Hedging service is growing nicely to replace it, and they have a couple of other opportunities for growth. I am happy to Hold, and Buy more if it drops any further

[masurenguy] 24/11/2010 11:29

It looks like their established Currency Carry Trade business was decimated by the consequences of the credit crunch and has not shown any signs of recovery since then either. Their return from this seemed to have peaked in the summer of 2007 just prior to their 160p IPO later that year (didn't the private shareholders do well in hindsight!). Consequently their AUME has fallen consistently since then. They seem to be putting more emphasis on their Dynamic Hedging service but that has not made up the shortfall from the rest of their business.

Is this now a busted flush or is it just suffering a major contraction on a cyclical basis ? I don't know the answer but I'm still keeping an occasional eye on this in case it turns out to be the latter !

[andyh21] 24/11/2010 11:09

What's the snag here masurenguy?? Recent director purchasing, good dividend and eps growth! margins have been squeezed a little and whats with the working cspital? they're sat on a fair bit of cash, what are they doing with it? Not took too much time looking so i'm being a tad lazy!

I've had this on the watch list for some time and looking for a speculative entry! Thanks, Andy

[masurenguy] 24/11/2010 10:47

Still no sign of any turnaround here !

16 November 2010:
INTERIM REPORT FOR THE SIX MONTHS ENDED 30 SEPTEMBER 2010

Record plc, the specialist currency manager, today announces its unaudited interim results for the six months ended 30 September 2010.

Financial highlights:

· AuME1 $30.8bn down 9% during the 6 mths to 30 Sept 10

· Profit before tax was £7.1m (6 mths to 30 Septr 09: £8.2m)

· Management fee income for 6 mths to 30 Sept 10 fell to £15.0m (6 mths to 30 Sept 09: £16.1m)

· Average management rate of 14.7 bps for 6 months to 30 Sept 10 (6 mths to 30 Sept 09: 14.8 bps)

· Operating margin 46% (6 mths to 30 Sept 2009: 49%)

· Basic EPS of 2.26p (6 mths to 30 Sept 09: 2.68p)

· Interim dividend unchanged at 2.0p per share payable in Dec 10

· Subject to business conditions & outlook, intention to keep the total dividend payable unchanged in the current financial year at 4.59p per share

· Shareholders' equity increased to £29.6m (30 Sept 09: £28.3m) and included £27.1m cash (30 Sept 09: £27.1m)