Share Name Share Symbol Market Type Share ISIN Share Description
Real Good Food Plc LSE:RGD London Ordinary Share GB0033572867 ORD 2P
  Price Change % Change Share Price Shares Traded Last Trade
  0.00 0.0% 4.70 0.00 08:00:00
Bid Price Offer Price High Price Low Price Open Price
4.50 4.90 4.70 4.70 4.70
Industry Sector Turnover (m) Profit (m) EPS - Basic PE Ratio Market Cap (m)
Food Producers 61.56 -26.09 -28.64 5
Last Trade Time Trade Type Trade Size Trade Price Currency
- O 0 4.70 GBX

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Real Good Food Daily Update: Real Good Food Plc is listed in the Food Producers sector of the London Stock Exchange with ticker RGD. The last closing price for Real Good Food was 4.70p.
Real Good Food Plc has a 4 week average price of 4.70p and a 12 week average price of 4.70p.
The 1 year high share price is 7.13p while the 1 year low share price is currently 1.75p.
There are currently 99,564,430 shares in issue and the average daily traded volume is 40,557 shares. The market capitalisation of Real Good Food Plc is £4,679,528.21.
140661: tiredoldbroker, for your benefit I have copied the third quarter trading update from January which comments on the improvements at Renshaws/Haydens and RW Scotts: "At Renshaw, the investment in sales and marketing is now beginning to pay dividends and we anticipate reporting a significant increase in EBITDA for the year. Sales growth has been experienced in UK retail while export initiatives are also showing positive signs with our business in Brussels now fully operational and the Renshaw brand launched in the US with a bespoke range of products. R&W Scott has now recruited a full commercial team and is ready to drive a series of added value product launches over the next 18 months. The first of these, a range of premium desert sauces, is now on sale in retail while a number of b2b opportunities have been identified across all product sectors. EBITDA will be similar to last year as the business absorbs the increase in overhead which is required to meet its long term ambitions. EBITDA at Haydens is anticipated to increase YOY as sales continue to grow and the remodeling of the bakery enables improved labour utilisation. The customer base continues to broaden and the commercial team has been expanded to reflect this." I accept this does not quantify the increase but I believe it will be substantial at Renshaws. In last years accounts the Renshaws business showed an ENITDA of £4.952m down from £5.56m the previous year so mu guess at £6m is only just up on the prior years performance. I know from speaking with PT that he is confident Renshaws is about to enter a phase of rapid growth hence my suggested £7m for the following year which I suspect could easily be understated. If as suggested by the trading update above the performance of Haydens is about to come through then EBITDA estimate of £1m is not in my opinion unreasonable. at Garrets the historic EBITDA figures have shown £2.1m and £2.7m so a £2m forecast for next year is unreasonable given a new experienced management team has just been recruited. We then come to the big unknown which is how the BS dispute will be resolved. Having completed the new sugar handling facility at Immningham I suggest its fair to assume RGD plan on importing much more sugar moving forward. I have seen figures suggesting BS might only be supplying a quarter of RGD;s sugar in two years. So longer term BS are less of a factor. In the short term there will be an impact and at this stage we don't know how significant. However, RGD have the support of Omnicane who have taken their shareholding from nothing two years ago to 27%. Omnicane invested in RGD as they saw strategic merit, a major part of which was supplying RGD with sugar. This opportunity is fast approaching and it will be Omnicane's interests for RGD to have a profitable sugar business. So even if BS are able to play dirty with RGD its unlikely to impact on RGD for more than a year. On the other hand, RGD believe they have a very strong case against BS and the recent fines in Europe show the Regulators will not stand for bad practices. In a scenario where RGD win their battle with BS we might then see a major fine for BS and a payment to RGD in compensation and a pricing structure moving forward which is attractive to RGD. Spacep has congratulated shareholders who have stuck with PT and he is right as when PT took over the CEO's role the share price was sub 5p so in 4 years he has done a great deal for shareholders. I don't call this failure but others might. In conclusion, none of us PI's knows whether RGD will win its battle with BS. If it does then shareholders should do extremely well over the next few years, if not the shares will under perform for a period but the outlook a year out will still be positive and the institutions who have been buying today will still do well. AIMHO.
140661: Brian, thanks for your observations. Based on Finsbury Food trading update on Friday it appears that market conditions are still tough so I am not expecting anything too exciting with RGD's results for year ending 31 March 2014. However, like Brian I am expecting next year to show significant growth and for cash generation to be much improved. All the macro signs are strong with the Immingham site operational this month, Omnicane continuing to buy shares and able to start supplying RGD with sugar late this year, Renshaws showing strong growth and cap ex falling. Expect to see the share price above £1 before year end. GLAH
140661: A week ago RGD announced its interim results and saw its share price react negatively. This was not a real surprise as the shares had enjoyed a tremendous run over the preceeding 4 months almost doubling and the interims were a bit disappointing. So is this the time to sell or was the 20% retrenchment an opportunity to buy? Clearly a lot of PI's deceided to exit and I hope they made a decent profit. Interestingly the shares have started to climb back up and are 10% above the lows they hit last wednesday lunchtime. I remain wholly convinced this share will return well above 100% over the next 18 months and it seems I am not alone. The shares have enjoyed a strong run on the back of persistent buying since they announced the large contract wins with ASDA and Bookers on 10th October. These contracts started in late October so had no bearing on the first half performance. In addition to these contract wins, the company should have its new sugar handling facility operation al in January. Again while this will have no immediate impact on the results, apart from added costs, the long term benefits in relation to RGD's sugar strategy are key. I have copied below the summary prepared as part of the sugar report RGD commissioned "We are confident we have found a winner from a major legislative change in the €11bn European sugar market. Independent sugar distributor, Napier Brown (wholly owned by Real Good Food Company (RGD)), is gaining market share. We anticipate a doubling of its volumes in the coming years in an environment of volatile, cyclical prices. A combination of the 2017 ending of the EU sugar quota regime (well ahead of which market shares should dramatically free up) and a tie-in with Omnicane, a quality, low cost Mauritian sugar cane refiner, should significantly boost Napier Brown's profits from historic levels. Omnicane is a 24% shareholder in RGD. Napier Brown contributed 40% of total RGD EBITA in FY13. It supplies c12% of UK's sugar volumes. We estimate a rise to c20%. This report focuses on how supply models are changing, and how this interacts with forthcoming abolition of EU sugar quotas. The simple big picture is: maximise supply robustness and get it to a widening range of customers effectively in a market where customers are looking to the post- quota world. That is what an independent distributor such as Napier Brown does.  Napier Brown is not tied to specific producers so, unlike sugar suppliers who are, it will benefit from the greatly more fluid supply arrangements.  Napier Brown is the largest independent European non-refining sugar distributor. Quotas' future demise date was agreed three months ago. Napier Brown has timed its import facility expansion to coincide, tapping the latent demand for more importing. The annual contract cycle runs from October and for 13/14 year, Napier Brown has circa 350,000 tonne sales booked, we understand. Historic sales are some 250,000 tonnes pa.  Its expanded UK import facilities and its pending supply agreements for low-cost refined cane sugar should facilitate transformative growth. Likely new supply agreements with Omnicane for East African sugar are set to add 60- 70% to Napier Brown volumes. Cane will be significantly more competitive if refined in modern African facilities – Omnicane has a world class refinery in Mauritius. RGD and Omnicane will source sugar together.  We back this trader with decades of expertise and service to be able to nudge margins ahead, based on cost effective refined product sourcing.  Multi-source refined cane sugar import suppliers will do the best – Napier Brown fits the bill best out of all market participants. It has flexibility to mix sources, quality assures input and secures the most appropriate suppliers as market demands change. It already sells to 90% of largest UK sugar users, so looks to expand existing clients, not find new ones. All is set." I accept that this report is biased towards RGD but the points it makes are real and the potential for RGD to build a highly valuable sugar business is equally real. I know from my discussions with the company that they believe the sugar business alone can achieve revenues of £500m and an EBITDA margin of circa 6%, ie £30m by 2017. This would be 3x last years figure for the group! Add to this Renshaws which has undergone a significant amount of internal change over the last two years. This business is beginning to grow again and lets not forget it has been the major engine for growth over the last few years apart from last year where it was flat. The recent interims pick out Renshaws as improving and I suspect we will see this business achieve its highest performance yet in the current year with it set on a stroing upward progression. This business is probably worth the whole of RGD's market cap today. Garretts is a great little business, producing a consistently high return. It will never be a big business but could easily be producing EBITDA of £3m next year. The two historic loss makers, in Haydens and R&W Scott are improving, particularly Haydens which will be profitable this year for the first time. So we have a food group which has enormous growth prospects in sugar, a highly profitable home baking business, a smaller but high return dairy business and a cake business which is on a strong upward projection. Add to this the low current valuation and the small free float, I am guessing less than 20% of the shares are outside long term holders, with ongoing buyers in the market, and you can see why this share has the potential to be a big winner. AIMHO and GLAH
tiredoldbroker: Ah, my drilling days are over, lol... my work has taken me in some new directions, I have a charity fundraising project I'm involved with that's a bit out of left field but which I love, and my foodie things take up more and more time, so I do less investment stuff these days, and haven't posted anything for ages. At first glance it looks like one benefit for Omnicane of going over 20% of RGD is that they can account for is as an associate, so they've picked up negative goodwill (the book value per share of RGD is above the share price paid, so they account for the surplus as an exceptional profit). Got to love those accounting rules! Can't tell you how pleasant it is to see some old names still posting!
140661: CR, I agree the interims are a bit disappointing but the serious investors in this company are not focusing on the short term. At today's price the shares trade on less than 8x the forecast for March 2014 which makes them very cheap which is why institutions are buying the stock. You and your mates can keep shorting the stock and if other PI's want to sell then good luck; I am confident your shares will be picked up by long term investors who see the medium to long term potential of the story. If anyone wishes to scroll back through the posts on this board they will see CR slagging of this company at 36p recommending a sell, not sure that was great advise!! This share is not for short term investors but those who see the clear potential. To remind existing and potential investors: 1. the company is expected to achieve EPS pd circa 7.5 EPS for March 2014 which places the shares on a PE of less than 8x. Cheap. 2. through its sub Napier Brands the Company is in a very strong position to benefit from changes to the sugar market over the next two years. See the sugar report on the company's website. Cheap. 3. the loss making subs of Haydens and R&W Scotts are turning the corner into profitability. 4. Omnicane will be able to supply sugar to RGD from 2015 with significant benefits to the group. 5.Omnicane and other group shareholders own over 60% of the shares. 6. the boards' options only crystallize when the share price hits 100p, 150p, 200p and 250p respectively. 7. recent buying over the last 4 months totaling 5% of the company has been institutional In summary, yes the interims are a bit disappointing but for those bothered to look there are good signs as well (25% own label next year, £100m is retail sugar sales, debt £3m below expectations and Haydens ahead of expectations). Those looking to make big profits over the next 3 months go ahead and sell, others like me who see the potential of this stock to reach 200p plus within 18 months will hold and accumalate, just like the institutions who have been buying the shares over the last 3 months. GLAH
140661: BrianG, when I last met with PT about 10 days ago he was very upbeat about the sugar business, I sensed more good news is coming in that area. He has often mentioned the magical 500k tons although I cannot recall if that is 2015 or 2016 as most things get pushed back a little in PT's world I am assuming 2016. The key question is can he improve his margin back up towards 5-6%, if so we are going to be seeing the share price well above 200p. The final point I would make is that PT seems to have enjoyed success in bringing in some institutional buyers and this should again be the catalyst to a strengthening share price. AIMHO GLAH
140661: This time next week we will have seen the trading update ahead of the AGM. Based on the prelims announcement and subsequent conversations with the company I am hoping to see: 1. confirmation that trading in the first 4/5 months of the year is ahead of last year and ahead of budget. 2. news on the Omnicane relationship and 3. upgrade to market forecasts for the current year. I also expect to have new broker research out ahead or shortly after the update. An interesting observation was made about RGD's relative performance to other quoted food producers which seem to have enjoyed a major share price improvement. For example Finsbury Food, which is smaller than RGD, has enjoyed a 150% share price rise over the last year. I dont know enough about Finsbury to comment on whether this is justified but I do believe it shows the potential for RGD's share price to enjoy a similar ride if the upcoming news is as good as I am expecting.
140661: smurfy on the off chance you really have a true interest and are not another nickname of CR, let me give you my assessment of why the PE is low. Debt is £25m so a concern but is this really a problem? Not from a debt management perspective as the company announced in June a new 5 year debt facility on improved terms so there is no upcoming renewal concern. There is clearly a P&L hit but this is manageable and the PE for the earnings calculation is after interest so this is in the figures. The business is growing and management are clearly of the opinion that debt will be coming down over the next few years. So in summary the debt is not a positive and if PT were to sell one of his less key divisions, similar to Finsbury Food earlier this year, then the shares would probably react very positively but its not a problem for the business. Limited broker coverage and small market cap. The only broker following RGD is house broker Shore Capital. They have a well respected research and broking team on food services but the lack of other coverage is a problem. Second, the company's low market cap means most institutions are uninterested due to size. So there is no institutional buying at present. However, the company's second largest shareholder, Omnicane have been buying shares over the last 6 months and this looks likely to continue. Omnicane can buy another 6% of the company and have a current average price of 56p so I am expecting them to continue hoovering up loose stock until the price reaches mid 50's or they hit 30% shareholding. In my opinion these are the two key reasons why the shares trade at a discount to their real value. Why might this change? First, improved performance. The prelims demonstrated solid growth and based on my discussions with management I know they are confident this is going to continue. Shore Cap are due to put out a note today and it will be interesting to see if they increase their forecasts for the next two years. I will post once I have the note. Omnicane relationship. Omnicane are a 24% shareholder in RGD, have been actively increasing their stake and are building a close relationship with RGD. In my opinion this is key to RGD's future as Omnicane have the ability through their own sugar supply business and their contacts to double/treble RGD's sugar business over the next 18-24 months. If this were to happen RGD's sugar business alone would have a turnover of £750m and would be generating £15-20m profit. IMHO if this happens the shares will be a multiple of the current share price. So I see little downside as the business is growing nicely plus you have major upside if the Omnicane relationship delivers. A strong buy in my opinion. GLAH and DYOR.
140661: BrianG, as you say it does not really matter if Omnicane gain some additional advantage in buying RGD shares, the good news is they appear to be an ongoing buyer. I was speaking to a fellow RGD shareholder yesterday and we went through all the reasons why we feel RGD is significantly undervalued, let me know if you agree. 1. The board are significant shareholders and therefore highly committed to the company's success. Pat Ridgewell family trust own approx 30%, Omnicane represented through their CEO own 23%, Pieter Totte owns 4% and the other non execs own 0.5%, so around 60% held by the board. In addition, we have the share option scheme that only kicks in when the share price reaches £1. 2. All purchases by the board in the last two years have been well above the current share price and Omnicane have paid an average of around 57p per share for their 23% stake in the last year. 3. Despite tough trading conditions across the food sector the business is showing solid growth. For the year ended 31 March 2013 the Company is looking at EBITDA growth of 24% and the forecast for this year is for EPS growth of circa 15%. 4. significant improvement in performance has been achieved at the two loss making businesses. In 2012, R&W Scott produced an operating loss of £1.34m, this had improved to break even at the half year and we will hopefully see a positive contribution for the full year, representing a £1.34m improvement on last year. Haydens produced an operating loss of £1.33m in 2012 and an operating loss of £572k at the half year. As flagged by the company the performance at Haydens has improved in the second half post the changes in working practice and the modernisation of the plant and its possible that Haydens will also make an operating profit for 2013. If these two divisions can maintain this improvement the company would be £2.6m better off than in 2012. 5. the current share price puts the company on a PE of 5x prospective EPS of 7.3p, a significant discount to the market. 6. the shares are also supported by net assets of over 120p per share and a likely break up value of at least twice the current share price.
140661: A couple of additional points re PT and the suggestion that he is not to be trusted. Since taking on the exec role, RGD's share price has increased ten fold. PT negotiated an option agreement which was based on share price performance hitting 50p intervals between 100p up to 250p. At the time the share price was below 50p. This is not the action of a man trying to rip off shareholders rather those of someone doing everything he can to reward shareholders with a rising share price. PT has delivered and is completely aligned with shareholders. Second, two non execs on RGD represent 52% between them, do investors honestly believe these large holders would allow decisions to be taken that were not in shareholders interests? Did the non exec, Ridgewell, sell any of his 32% shareholding when Omnicane picked up 15% in the market-NO. Finally, there was a comment made earlier that the company would really need to motor to hit this years EPS target of 7.5p fully diluted. True but the company's best quarters are coming up and they have reiterated twice that they are confident of doing so. Lets not forget that to make these public announcements the entire board need to be comfortable they are correct in making these statements.
Real Good Food share price data is direct from the London Stock Exchange
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