Reach Share Discussion Threads

[bc4] 22/5/2023 13:38

The drip continues when is the end of the court case?

[swynemap] 15/5/2023 09:23

It is a very good article and I've learned a lot from his posts about pensions in the past, however like harry_david mentioned there is no analysis of the liability. The pension schemes now sponsored by Reach (assuming the Express pensions haven't extended this) closed to new accounts in 2002 and additional contributions in 2010. This years report mentioned that 60% of all uninsured liabilities are already current pensioners with an expected 12 year average term left across all uninsured schemes.

The confusing thing about the liability calculation is that I believe that it is based on the current transfer value of converting from a DB to cash, this is why in a high inflation year the liability went down though future payments will have increased. I would prefer a current liability assumption to be based on the present value of all assumed future payments, the 2022 uninsured payment was £73m and the assumed peak is £104m in 2034. So, with an even uplift Reach would need to payout £1077.5m by 2034 in 2023 money.

These payments would all be subject to inflation, DB pensions are usually increased by inflation each year but limited to 5% (industry standard but scheme specific and I can't find the Reach figure), so the current high inflation and rate increase is helpful to Reach as it has increased the corporate bond rate to around 5.5% YTM (SLXX ETF) and index linked gilts below par, so they should be able to lock in rates above the maximum inflation uplift on the current assets. So how big or small the pension blackhole is a bit of an unknown but it now shouldn’t be getting any bigger (subject to the Trustees doing their job) even when excluding the triennial contributions.

The insured pension schemes except for in a disaster which would most likely bring down the whole economy are irrelevant.

For equity investors the deficit really should be based on assumed payments required in present value minus current assets or a quoted buyout value from insurers.

[harry_david] 14/5/2023 16:03

Paton has raised important points which may be crucial to valuing the shares. However one point he does not analyse is liability, or not in any depth. Reach closed off its promised benefit pension schemes at various times but averaging 20 or more years ago. The result must be a steadily declining number of pensioners and therefore of liabilities. This may be partially offset where pensions escalate due to inflation, may be in some of Reach's schemes.
The loss Paton refers to last year I find hard to understand as without it the total funds would have been in massive surplus. If the loss is real why has there been no announcement? It is a basic listing requirement.

[archy147] 12/5/2023 10:53

Very good article, thank you bigdave

[john09] 12/5/2023 10:36

1 step forward 2 back

And that’s being very optimistic

[bigbigdave] 11/5/2023 16:35

Newspaper publisher Reach trades on a P/E of 3. Maynard Paton believes the rock-bottom rating reflects a pension scheme ‘black hole’.



Don't shoot the messenger!

[watfordhornet] 11/5/2023 14:19

Not 7.7% of it though

[ihatemms] 11/5/2023 12:36

The fall is due to the fact it’s gone ex-div

[bookbroker] 11/5/2023 10:59

Piers Morgan was correct last night, Harry has used the media to his advantage for financial gain over the last few years. Off course, when the little squirt lost his Mum the media intrusion was pretty awful, but with regard to this case Morgan left years ago and much of the case is very historic. As for the break up of Chelsea Davy and Harry, the media can hardly be blamed for that. Any woman in her right mind knows that being in a royal relationship is going to generate considerable interest, and she decided that the price of privilege and financial security was not worth the hassle in exchange for her every move being monitored.

[simmsc] 11/5/2023 10:37

i think it didn't convincingly enough break through resistance on the upside and technical traders believe the downward momentum is likely to continue (not helped by the negative news around the hacking scandals). The volume doesn't look big enough to indicate a fundamental change.

[netcurtains] 11/5/2023 10:24

Is the fall due to the ongoing court case?

How much does Reach stand to lose?

[bookbroker] 11/5/2023 10:19

If this what ex-div. does to the valuation they may as well keep it, either plug these pension deficits, pay down debt or use it for general working capital purposes.

[bookbroker] 10/5/2023 18:39

More bothered about this phone hacking case, in the event I hope they have the cash should they lose this case against them.

[harry_david] 07/5/2023 18:05

The good old days!!

[john09] 07/5/2023 14:46

Dw I have some perennial red ticketrs they follow me on every board . One starts with an N and one starts with an O

It’s flattering, I worked out that they spend 4 hours a year just red ticking my posts lol .

I’m here to make money and pretty good at that. It’s those who fail who utilise the red tick 🙌🏼

[bc4] 07/5/2023 12:48

Make that 3 not in HA HA HA

[bc4] 07/5/2023 11:34

Well RCH finished up 5% so he can down tick all he likes LOL,You can't win if you are not in and he is not in HA HA

[dougmachin] 07/5/2023 09:24

18 months.

[hamhamham1] 07/5/2023 09:08

The phantom down-ticker strikes again!

[john09] 06/5/2023 00:46

12 months of hell here lets be honest . Bouncing around between 70p and 120p

[hamhamham1] 05/5/2023 17:14

Might even sneak 95p pre ex-divid date.

[john09] 05/5/2023 16:05

Hallelujah

[brucie5] 05/5/2023 15:28

Certainly looks perky. Maybe off the back of positive SNWS. Added a few this afternoon.

[the imperialist] 05/5/2023 15:26

I think a bid is on the way. I can feel it in my bones.