Raven Russia P Discussion Threads

[igbertsponk] 04/6/2018 08:22

Numbers suggest it's worth taking the scrip divi this time. They must want to preserve cash!

[montyhedge] 31/5/2018 19:22

Brilliant better than ever now.

[kenny] 31/5/2018 18:52

All resolutions passed – see RNS issued 5.45pm today. Resolution 20 which, in effect, makes RUSP irredeemable was passed by 99.99% of those voting, about 582m shares voting in favour which probably includes about 500m ordinary shareholders voting in favour.

Personally, I am delighted because I can continue to sit back and collect the dividends in scrip shares or cash - forever.

The coupon is now bullet proof in terms of a) the company’s Net Operating Income and cash buffer of over $250m covering at least the next 12 plus years of future coupons, even if the company proves to be minimally profitable in the next decade, and b) legally e.g. no Aviva type of repayment of capital worries. Therefore, I do intend to hold “forever”; because the guaranteed yield suits me, as I am not looking to take risks to achieve, say, 15% to 30% per annum returns!

Ticker changes to be at a later date – to be announced as and when the name change is implemented by the Guernsey Registry.

[montyhedge] 31/5/2018 08:43

I think new investors will come in when all is passed.

[yieldsearch] 31/5/2018 01:16

As always, tks v much for the update

[kenny] 31/5/2018 00:25

Assuming that all of the resolutions are passed at the AGM and separate class meetings on 31 May, then RUSP shares will thereafter only be redeemable by a “reduction of capital” should at least 75% of that specific class consent.

A very important change because, in effect, RUSP becomes an irredeemable preference share because 75% of the class will never vote to be repaid. Also, could the class otherwise be asked to vote to be repaid at either 1p, being the nominal value, or at either one of the issue prices of the two tranches of RUSP that have been issued, namely either at 100p (issued in 2009) or 134p (issued in 2012)?

Good that the company took the initiative to put forward these resolutions to put the matter beyond doubt – not least because of the above possible redemption prices but also the scrip prices – which over the years have varied e.g. 160p in each of the four quarters in 2014.

If the resolution to change the company’s name to Raven Property Group Limited is passed, then all the tickers will change as follows:

RUS will become RAV
RUSP will become RAVP
RUSC will become RAVC
RUSW will become RAVW

I assume the new tickers will come in on 1 June rather than tomorrow after the AGM and Class meetings but the company will probably clarify by way of an RNS after those meetings. The change of tickers will, based on previous experience, no doubt cause some confusion.

[yieldsearch] 24/5/2018 14:03

Payday: 2nd July
Record date: 18th May
ex Dvd: 17th May

The Directors of the Company confirm that the quarterly payment of the preference dividend in respect of the preference shares of 1p each with ticker RUSP (the "Preference Shares") will be made, in accordance with their terms, on 2 July 2018 in respect of the period from 31 March 2018 to (but excluding) 30 June 2018. The record date for the payment of the preference dividend for the Preference Shares is 18 May 2018 with an ex-dividend date of 17 May 2018.
The Preference Shares will be entitled to a gross dividend of 3 pence per Preference Share.

[montyhedge] 24/5/2018 13:52

When's payday chaps?

[yieldsearch] 23/5/2018 10:39

still not have an answer on the "yield under 5%"

Loans: no portfolio, single loan secured on multi properties multitenant. Details available in the presentation

Bonds: based on the presentation they have limited exposure to multiborrower cmbs deals, really seems to be single borrowers deal. I can recognise center parcs (top 3 and top5, UK’s largest and foremost operator of holiday villages), which is the high yield issuance that refinanced the existing cmbs (centers parcs mortgage finance uk limited, hxxp://www.ise.ie/debt_documents/CPUK_6598.pdf)

Kenny: yes LTV is low but we are exposed to levered positions here: eg in terms of LTV, they most likely sold down the 0%to 50% (senior loan) and kept the 50.01% to 66%

[kenny] 23/5/2018 10:13

Sounds as though your app is as angry as you!

Seriously though, let's all try and address each other civilly. At the end of the day, none of us can foretell the future, so although we may be convinced that we are right, an alternative view is worth respecting.

I think you will find that 65% of the portfolio is loans and that each one of those loans are individual loans and not bundled - see the RECI factsheet. The balance of the portfolio does include some CMBS but most of that is originated by Cheyne so they do know what is bundled. The Loan To Value ratio is also disclosed - it is 66% for the loan portfolio and 64.9% for the bond portfolio. I regard that as sufficient insulation from a property market crash but you may disagree.

[kenny] 23/5/2018 00:07

The investment objective RECI has stated in their factsheet is:

"The Company’s aim is to deliver a stable quarterly dividend with minimal volatility, through economic and credit cycles through a levered exposure to real estate credit investments."

Therefore, there is no undertaking to increase the share price through accumulation of profits. Rather, the whole focus is upon; 1)income, 2) a stable quarterly dividend and 3) minimal disruption of that income through the economic and credit cycles.

There is no undertaking that the RECI share price will trade above NAV albeit it has traded above NAV in 6 of the last 12 months - contrary to your statement that it has not traded at a premium to NAV.

Any person buying RECI in the expectation that it should trade above NAV is misjudging both the company's objectives and the primary attraction of RECI. The share price may, in future, trade above or indeed below NAV but it appears to me that this is irrelevant to the investment case for a long term income investor.

[yieldsearch] 22/5/2018 21:27

My Retirement Fund:
"they are buying portfolios that yeild under 5% "

Well first they are not buying portfolios. Cheyne is originating commercial real estate (CRE) loans and buying CMBS bonds. Like SWEF or LBOW, they originate CRE loans and the listed vehicle is buying the loan or a part of it. I have monitor RECI since the QWIL time, and to my knowledge, they never bought portfolios of loans. Bonds are not typically bought as portfolio.

Second: yield under 5%
Please look at the last factsheet:
under loan portfolio summary: Weighted average Yield = 10.2%
under bond portfolio summary: Weighted average Levered Yield: 9.4% (unlevered yield is 6%)

Would be grateful if you could clarify the "yield under 5%" comment you are making above, i believe this is not correct. I may have missed something. YS

[my retirement fund] 22/5/2018 17:59

Kenny they are buying portfolios that yeild under 5% and may well see redemptions below mark to market book valuations. Its pretty clear to me that continually issuing giant clips of shares has to have a longer term negative impact upon the sustainability of the dividend. This is the reason investors are seeing a longer term erosion of the shareprice and the reason it does not have the credibility to be able to trade at a premium to NAV. The investment team are incentivised to increase the size of the fund by issuing more and more shares in order to increase their fees.I cannot seeing anything left to like.

[kenny] 22/5/2018 14:21

MRF - see my post earlier today on the RECI board where I stated that the company is unlikely to accumulate gains. The point of investing in RECI is the yield of over 7%. That is going to be maintained; however many new shares RECI issues - because of their ability to gear, currently at an all in cost of about 1.79%

If you are investing for a potential capital gain - that is unlikely. If you take the view that interest rates are going to remain, say, at a average well below 3.5% for the next decade, then RECI is a good investment.

All in my opinion and I appreciate you disagree because RECI has issued about 70m shares over the last 18 months albeit a lot of that went to repaying 44m of expensive preference which redeemed last year.

[my retirement fund] 22/5/2018 13:31

RECI has consistently traded below NAV. That should be a warning imo. Its transformed itself over the years from an investors in undervalued securitized property loan books into a perpetual share printing machine.

[kenny] 22/5/2018 13:25

If you like RUSP, another secure high yielder is RECI, currently on a 7.2% yield.

RECI today announced a further issue of shares, at NAV, so there is an opportunity to accumulate RECI at a price very close to their NAV.

RECI is now my number two holding after RUSP: which remains by far my largest holding.

As always, DYOR and note these two investments are only for long term money looking for a high and secure yield.

[igbertsponk] 22/5/2018 12:01

I note that the Board propose a name change to "Raven Property Group Limited".
Losing the word "Russia".
Guess Russia is bad news these days so not clever to draw too much attention to it!
Seems a bit silly to me - nearly all the business is in Russia.

[bench2] 21/5/2018 21:25

Kenny , re your post 2480 , reasons for owning RUSP , I would also add to point 5 that Anton Bilton is also a very large holder of RUSP , where he takes the scrip option each quarter . It was his personal position in the 12% pref that has kept me in the holding . If he and the board had large holdings of the Ords and no Pref holdings then I would be far less comfortable . Direct skin in the game by Anton ( and others ) is our trump card .
You will not find the directors of Aviva , Lloyds Bank , RBS , Stan Chart etc owning any pref shares . Under EU law they have a duty to look after all stakeholders , and that includes pref holders , so what the Chairman and board of Aviva were trying to do baffles me .

[igbertsponk] 21/5/2018 09:03

Gone ex int without the usual drop - just like the old days!
Might well drop a tad when there's sales volume though.

[catsick] 21/5/2018 08:59

I guess it did so that was a bit weird, there is a nice updated presentation for the 2017 ann results on the interweb now fyi ...

[catsick] 21/5/2018 08:48

Did it really go ex div with zero impact on the price ? A bit weird if its been quoted 146/150 for a week with a 3p div in the middle ?