Raven Russia P Discussion Threads

[garycook] 25/4/2018 01:14

Kenny,Well done with your posting.Good news for RUSP share price

[kenny] 24/4/2018 22:24

Yet more good news! My research has found that the company in Q1 2018 let 25,000 sq m in the logistics park 'Noginsk' to Rockwell, the heat and sound insulating materials company.

Understand this was the largest letting transaction in Russia to a manufacturing tenant in Q1.

And to think that some idiot was speculating, at the beginning of this month, that 'vacancies may prove to be sticky' in 2018. That idiot was me!!

[montyhedge] 24/4/2018 06:55

Rusal had its biggest share price rise in Hong Kong last night as US sanctions eased. I reckon Raven on sentiment should get back to 145.

[kenny] 24/4/2018 01:45

At present, news flow seems pretty positive on a number of fronts:

Sharp vacancy drop on the Moscow region warehouse market

In Q1 2018 the vacancy rate on the Moscow region warehouse market declined by 1.9 ppt, from 8.3% to 6.4%, according to JLL. In absolute terms, the volume of vacant spaces shrank to 1.08m sq m. This marked the lowest vacancy levels since 2015, both relative and absolute. The main reason for the vacancy drop was low completions.

Warehouse completions in Q1 2018 were 68,000 sq m, of which 46,000 sq m in PNK Park
Valisсhevo. “The significant decline of the vacancy rate in Q1 2018 was facilitated by high activity on the secondary market. During the first three months of the year more than 500,000 sq m of warehouse space changed the status from vacant to occupied and vice versa. A significant surplus of occupied space over the released areas reduced of the vacancy rate,” Oksana Kopylova, Head of Retail and Warehouse Research, JLL, Russia & CIS, said, adding that “this extended the trend of declining vacant space since the beginning of 2017.”

By the end of 2018, some 879,000 sq m of warehouse premises are announced for delivery. The main 2018 warehouses projects are built-to-suit schemes for retailers, namely a warehouse complex for Wildberries.ru (146,000 sq m), 90,000 sq m in Solnechnogorsk District for a large international retailer, 68,000 sq m in the new Orientir Sever 3 for Utkonos, and 52,000 sq m in PNK Park Valisсhevo for the logistic company Commercial Real Estate Operator.

“More than half of projects under construction (487,000 sq m) are speculative and non-occupied. Their delivery will lead to a vacancy rate increase. However, high warehouse market activity will later contribute to its absorption. By the end of the year we expect the stabilization of the vacancy rate in the range of 6-7%,”
commented Kopylova.

Warehouse demand remains high. The take-up volume in Q1 2018 totaled 452,000 sq m, three times higher YoY. Some 71% of the deals were competed in existing facilities, the rest were contracts in under-construction buildings. “Although historically the beginning of the year had usually been quiet, the results of Q1 2018 set a record and were comparable to the results of the whole Н1 2017,” Evgeniy Bumagin, National Director, Industrial & Warehouses Department, JLL, Russia & CIS, noted, adding that “high business activity (take-up above 300,000 sq m) continues since Q2 2017, supported by stable and attractive rental levels.”

Weighted average asking rental rates in new transactions on the Moscow region warehouse market are at a minimum in the range of RUB3,300-3,600 per the sq m per year (excluding VAT and operating expenses). Actual rents depend on a specific location and proximity to MKAD.

The largest deals in Q1 2018 were the following: VkusVill leased 52,000 sq m in PNK Park Severnoye Sheremetyevo; retailer Maksidom bought 41,000 sq m in the Nidan Soki complex; DNS expanded in Atlant Park (39,000 sq m); A Plus Development built a new 21,600 sq m built-to-suit project for the AGC Glass manufacturing company in Klin. Retailers were the main demand drivers in Q1 2018, accounting for 40% of all
deals.

If the current level of activity is maintained, the take-up volume on the Moscow region warehouse market this year can reach 1.5m sq m. “Currently there is a number of active large requests, more than 30,000 sq m each, coming from companies representing different business sectors. Against the background of these positive market momentum, only geopolitical situation can cause fears that can correct the development plans of some companies, and in some cases put them on hold".
===============================================================================
News like this may explain why Anton Bilton has been buying the ordinaries - he has bought a total of 2.5m since the results in early March. I prefer RUSP but his purchases of ordinaries is yet more confirmation that the coupon on the preference is very secure.

[kenny] 23/4/2018 11:55

Thanks for the link eeza and I have also read the FT's article which first indicated this late on Friday. I believe this is an important development and even if it transpires that the latest sanctions are not rolled back, it indicates there are not likely to be any further economic sanctions on Russia.

From other sources, I note the US congress is considering new sanctions against those persons linked to Russia's internet attacks/fake news activities but such sanctions will not have an economic effect. Also, indicated that Putin has asked his supporters to "cool" the anti-US rhetoric.

[igbertsponk] 20/4/2018 09:20

I see Anton bought 1.25m Ords yesterday and Woodford have increased their Ords holding by another 3%. Will be interesting to see who the seller is.

[my retirement fund] 20/4/2018 09:16

AB buying £500,000 worth yesterday in the ords. A vote of confidence.

[gary1966] 19/4/2018 12:10

Effect of ruble weakness now that greater proportion of rents are in rubles?

[montyhedge] 19/4/2018 08:30

We are getting well paid for the risk, 9% I can live with that.

[igbertsponk] 16/4/2018 14:06

hopefully the perfect storm is now subsiding and these can start to go up again. Matters little to me as I'm happy with my holding.

[eeza] 16/4/2018 13:02

Someone just Bed & Isa'd 15k.

[garycook] 15/4/2018 15:03

Holts,Probably all overdone,and oversold.Great buying opps has I have already stated.

[holts] 15/4/2018 14:58

The LSE reported trades on Thursday were predominantly buys , do you not think the mark down was more to do with Rusal ?

[garycook] 15/4/2018 02:55

Kenny,Always oversold,when something like this happens.But it turns out to be an excellent buying opportunity.Also with HGM,my other connected Russian Gold miner.

[kenny] 15/4/2018 01:17

If I may change the topic, please, it looks like air strikes are done and dusted.

Perhaps, therefore, we can hope that in the next few weeks, buyers return and the share price bounces back. I see that the newspapers, having not long ago advised that Russian stocks could suffer Armageddon, have done an about turn and are pointing out how cheap Russian stocks are. Any other views?

[andyj] 14/4/2018 10:48

Jeez what is going on with posters here?I know preference shares in a Russian warehousing company can be a little dull, but no need to replicate the Third World War to liven it up, talking of which...

[fangorn2] 13/4/2018 20:16

"montyhedge13 Apr '18 - 19:29 - 2434 of 2435
0 0 0
Fanghorn was filtered years ago."

Because I called you out on your ramping one day pessimism the next, on the same stock, despite no change in its fundies.

A process you repeat ad nauseam across numerous boards I hasten to add!

Nice try shagger.

[montyhedge] 13/4/2018 19:29

Fanghorn was filtered years ago.

[skyship] 13/4/2018 18:18

Sorry all - didn't realise I was stepping on toes.

Goodbye to this thread...

[my retirement fund] 13/4/2018 12:15

[Appologise for coming down to his level] but more often than not, thats all they are capable of understanding.