Raven Russia P Discussion Threads

[my retirement fund] 19/5/2018 11:04

I thought Japan back in 2009 when QE became mainstream. Japan had already been experience near ZIRP for 15 years or so. 25 years later things haven't moved on a lot for them. Why should it here?ZIRP is a generational thing now imo. Eventually talk of normalisation will cease as newer central bankers replace older ones who can still remember higher rates.

[holts] 19/5/2018 07:35

That is a feeling I have also , I thought back in 2008 it was a good ten year mess we were in and that time has flown and progress seems minimal , I can easily see us in for another ten years .

[kenny] 17/5/2018 22:17

"Interest rates could stay at rock bottom for another decade"

[eeza] 17/5/2018 20:06

XD today. share price unmoved.

[catsick] 11/5/2018 02:13

Yes nice to have quickly recovered from the russia/aviva wobble I think the 150 level is the stable 8pct coupon fair price, the recent lettings are nice but really its the ords that are helped more by that, the conv notes are a nice half way house, I hold rusp and rusc now and none of the rus

[kenny] 10/5/2018 15:53

Another letting, small compared to Raven’s total portfolio but it all helps:
“Logistics company ID Logistics rented 12 510 sq. m. In Logoparke Class A "Noginsk" company Raven Russia in 44 km from Mkad on Gorky Highway. The lease contract is concluded for 6 years. The consultant of the transaction was the company Knight Frank.”

Also, it looks like we have someone accumulating in the background – because the market makers are marking up RUSP with little volume. Presumably, a fund manager or pension fund buying on the basis that low interest rates will persist for years, if not the next decade, and they need yield. Also, RUSP is one of only two preference shares quoted in London which are truly irredeemable, so good for parties who need a good yield over the long term.

[kenny] 10/5/2018 13:42

At last, the Rouble is acknowledging the recent oil price move and strengthening to below 62 to the $.

More importantly, rumour is that Putin is, at last, going to focus on improving the Russian economy and is looking at what can be done in Ukraine to have sanctions lifted. A material development, if true and if he seriously wishes to resolve the Ukraine situation.

Meanwhile, in the UK - "The financial markets are now indicating there will be an interest rate increase towards the end of the year followed by another in 2019, and a further one in 2020" - so base rate may reach the scary heights of 1.25% by the end of 2020.

[igbertsponk] 10/5/2018 09:30

Woodford has supported this company from the start both with Perpetual and now his own funds. Too big a holding to mess around hopping in and out. If he sells the market loses confidence in the company.

[m4rtinu] 10/5/2018 09:16

Is Woodford looking for a quick in and out on that tranche to make from the "divi"? Assuming Ord share price holds.

[igbertsponk] 10/5/2018 08:58

Such a good share to own. Always a political driven opportunity to top up at lower price before it returns to the norm.

[hindsight] 10/5/2018 08:55

Eeza tend to agree, I de risk by taking divi in wrapper and then also have some cash to put back in on dips which seem to happen like clock work

[nerja] 10/5/2018 08:28

From yesterday morning trying to top up for a small 2000, cant be many about now.

[eeza] 10/5/2018 07:44

Dividend dec RNS

"The Directors of the Company confirm that the quarterly payment of the preference dividend in respect of the preference shares of 1p each with ticker RUSP (the "Preference Shares") will be made, in accordance with their terms, on 2 July 2018 in respect of the period from 31 March 2018 to (but excluding) 30 June 2018. The record date for the payment of the preference dividend for the Preference Shares is 18 May 2018 with an ex-dividend date of 17 May 2018.



The Preference Shares will be entitled to a gross dividend of 3 pence per Preference Share.



A scrip dividend alternative (to be settled in Preference Shares) will also be available for all preference shareholders in respect of the preference dividend."

[hpcg] 07/5/2018 10:17

Happy to have sold when I did. Half of the proceeds went into WHF a US listed senior variable rate lender when Cable was at top of its range. Other half into Volta Finance a Euro equivalent to WHF, but listed in London. GBP much more likely to lose 20% to USD and or EUR than to gain from here. 1.45 USD to the pound is my notional (and practical) purchasing power exchange rate based on beer, hotel rooms, restaurant meals.

Exchange rates obviously an issue here for the company, if not the nominal dividend. USD is trending going higher an that is generally bad for EM currencies. Daily, weekly and monthly trend for GBP/RUB all suggest Sterling is slowly strengthening.

Long term, what do people think about the ever increasing debt load from scrip dividend, which from what I can tell of the articles, is mandatory to offer? Worse for the ords of course, but ultimately it must overwhelm the company.

It looks like this will be just fine for now though, but the last two situations have always nagged me. I never took the scrip as I wanted to de-risk with the dividend and anyone doing that is unlikely to lose money absent serious sanctions or expropriation.

[kenny] 07/5/2018 09:48

This is a rather long article but worth reading as it focuses on how interest rates might move over a long time period; rather than the short term noise of when the next 0.25% interest rate rise may occur:

hxxp://advisoranalyst.com/glablog/2018/04/23/hoisington-restrictive-fed-policy-will-lead-to-lower-long-term-rates.html/print/

The comments about the law of diminishing returns are highly relevant for those who are invested here for the very long term because they believe, like me, that interest rates may only rise to a maximum of 3% to 3.25% before once again taking a downward path.

[montyhedge] 01/5/2018 17:52

Holt
Lloyds after the ECN fiasco and we loss, I would not trust the CEO and board,
they do anything they want.

[holts] 30/4/2018 15:34

they were leant on hard otherwise they would not have come up with this , it at least would make such as Lloyds think much more carefully about how they would attempt such a move , although it would not necessarily put them off the idea entirely .

[montyhedge] 30/4/2018 08:13

I see Aviva making a goodwill payment to pref holders who were worried and sold. That was the CEO prawn sandwich moment. What a fiasco.

[riskvsreward] 29/4/2018 18:51

And growing general commodity price. Russia is a big resource country and it can find buyers for the commodities irrespective of sanctions, although a relaxation of sanctions will help. China is a big consumer of all such commodities and is close to Russia geographically.

[m4rtinu] 29/4/2018 18:30

Also, can I add that Russia is benefitting from the higher oil price.

[kenny] 28/4/2018 00:07

Just to summarise the current positives for investors in RUSP, including new investors considering an investment as well as those already invested or who are considering topping up. In no particular order:

1. Yield of over 8% per annum, paid quarterly.

2. Dividend cover on all preference classes combined is over two times net earnings, even before new lettings are factored in.

3. In addition to earnings cover, the company currently holds $266m in cash – compared to an annual dividend cost on RUSP of about £12m.

4. The company will shortly pass a special resolution to amend it's Articles to make it clear that a reduction of capital can only occur if the preference class - alone - votes by at least 75% of that class. Accordingly, RUSP is one of very few truly irredeemable permanent preference shares quoted in London.

5. Anton Bilton, executive deputy chairman, has bought a total of 2.5m ordinary shares since early March 2018. His confidence in the ordinaries and, therefore, the future of the company, reinforces that the coupon on RUSP is secure.

6. The company offers scrip dividends - only on the RUSP preference class – which have material tax advantages in legally avoiding the Dividend Tax. The requirement to offer scrip dividends on the RUSP class is written into the company's Articles; so a holder can be confident that they will continue to be offered. This factor alone increases the effective after-tax yield substantially for those UK resident investors receiving total dividends exceeding £2,000 p.a.

7. The company is considering secondary listings of its securities on the Johannesburg and Moscow exchanges; which may lead to increased demand for the shares.

8. Some vacant property has been let in Q1 2018 – at least 40,000 sq mtrs that I am aware of. Although this is small in the context of the company’s total portfolio, it confirms independent research reports that, compared to 2017, there is now stronger demand for warehouse property in the Moscow market.

As always, DYOR.

[holts] 27/4/2018 16:38

Yep , handbags at dawn .

[badtime] 27/4/2018 12:45

Blimey the old testosterone is flying around today...nice to see the share price up

[kenny] 27/4/2018 12:44

Draft resolutions now available from the company's website - see special resolutions 20 (preference shares) & 21 (convertible preference shares).Voting on resolution 20 is by ordinaries and preference only.Voting on resolution 21 is by ordinaries and convertible preference only.

RUSP holders are only concerned with special resolution 20 which requires 75% of those voting to approve. Total voting on resolution 20 is 759,871,761, so 75% of that is 569,903,821. However, the latter figure assumes that every shareholder votes and many holders do not bother to exercise their vote.

Therefore, a combination of Invesco, Woodford, the directors and a few others should easily pass the resolution.The company would not have proposed these resolutions without firstly sounding out major shareholders.

[pogue] 27/4/2018 11:27

My Retirement Fund
so fools sell when they think a share will fall and this case were right? Really? Buy and hold is fine but selling and saving money is more intelligent.
I did not buy any here at the bottom as I didn't see there was much of an upside from there its up 10% currently maybe make it upto upto 15% had it gone lower I may have been tempted on the other hand I bought Aviva and PFC when they were down recently and they have risen approx 30% and 50% repectively from lows, its all about risk reward. Don't call people who make money on correct decisons fools it reflects badly on you.