Raven Property Share Discussion Threads

[irish_neris] 11/2/2021 14:10

On a roll today

[cc2014] 03/2/2021 14:08

Take a look at the GBP/Rouble exchange rate over the last year, you will see RAV will have a huge huge loss this year due to the exchange rate movement.

[irish_neris] 03/2/2021 13:07

The current placing is probably a bit part of the problem. Millions of shares worth very little. Dont place the share or else do a stock split, 1 share for ever 10 or what ever amount you own

[gfrae] 03/2/2021 10:04

It could be that the shares are just very very cheap weighed down by some very large sellers who are selling for reasons other than the fundamentals ?
This is the problem when you have a concentrated shareholder list and your largest shareholders want/have to sell. The current placing has not really solved that problem though as we are still left with just a few names owning most of the ords and prefs.
Even taking a bearish view of the underlying business these shares should at least be in the 40s. 93% occupancy, few bad debts, huge demand for warehouse space caused by internet shopping, Russian economy has coped with Covid better than most, low foreign debt etc.

[zangdook] 01/2/2021 13:40

It was over 50p in January 2020.

[irish_neris] 01/2/2021 13:32

The management of this company do know that the aim is to increase shareholder value and destroy it. Gone from 55p in 2017 down to mid 20s. Prime Russian warehouses must be worth sweet f all compared to the rest of the world

[zangdook] 29/1/2021 08:25

It probably helped that lots of gamers didn't like Gamestop being shorted so hard. Russian warehouse clients are not likely to fill that role for us

[irish_neris] 28/1/2021 22:06

Don't suppose the shares are being massively shorted and will flag up on a reddit forum soon??? Suppose thats even a far fetched dream

[irish_neris] 05/11/2020 22:00

340 shares over 3 trades at mid 20s is a bit strange

[tyranosaurus] 04/11/2020 18:44

Why the 2 price monitoring extensioms after 4.30pm today ???
Only 3 trades totaling 340 shares all day.

[gfrae] 21/10/2020 21:25

Thanks for the clarification tradertrev. So one could say that the underlying profit figure is relatively predictable as it is based on known rents and outgoings.
Whilst IFRS figures depend on what yield you might value any given property, and fx predictions in Russia's case may well depend on future oil prices, ie both dependent on Russia's relative economic health.
Russia with little foreign debt, thanks to Western sanctions, and substantial reserves may well be well placed to weather the coming economic crisis.
Russia also has a less developed internet shopping therefore greater demand for warehouses and the Covid crisis may have deterred new investment by others. Warehouse prices might be expected to rise as Edison and others have noted. IFRS estimates may therfore be conservative as may NAV estimates.
OZON one of it's clients is due to float in New York soon.

[porsche1945] 21/10/2020 17:34

Hi, been watching these for a while, obviously getting hit with weak ruble and the brexit damaged pound as pathetic as it is strengthening a bit on deal hope, the ord have lost 50 pc of their value, look just so volatile, I’m looking for more income stocks, so, buy the pref’s??

[tradertrev] 21/10/2020 17:00

The IFRS profit includes the unrealised gain/loss on valuation of the properties, which is usually an enormous non-cash item. It also includes substantial Fx gains/losses. The underlying profit number approximates much more closely to operating cash-flow than IFRS, and is a better indicator of sustainable dividend/buyback capacity, IMHO.

[igbertsponk] 21/10/2020 12:56

Companies don't set dividend policy based on current year expected cash profits. They look to the future and pay out what they think will be sustainable.
Anyone relying on an Edison report needs their bonse testing anyway as they're all paid for by the company to drum up investors.
DYOR!

[kenny] 21/10/2020 12:52

gfrae - the EPS you quote is the underlying profit. Probably best to use the IFRS basis because underlying profits excludes many items. For this company, underlying profits also exceed free cashflow. The IFRS figure is EPS of 1.81p for 2021.

In relation to NAV, Edison is estimating 44p as at the end of 2020 and 45p NAV as at the end of 2021.

All the above figures are extracted from page 16 of Edison's latest report.

[tradertrev] 21/10/2020 08:47

Moscow warehouse property eye-wateringly cheap relative to London

[gfrae] 20/10/2020 17:31

Kenny, Edison forecasting 2.7p for for 2021. This year there will be a loss due to weak Rouble. NAV down to 58p for same reason.

I suggest the right price of the ords is about 65p with the prefs about 240 on a yield of 5%.

[kenny] 20/10/2020 15:31

gfrae - you make some good points but I think the value of this company is mainly in the preference - RAVP - and not in the ordinaries.

Be careful with these ordinaries, because Edison is forecasting EPS of 1.81p for 2021, so I don't know that buybacks (dividends) will even be as high as 2.25p going forward.

Also, going forward there is no party like Woodford and Invesco who were willing to back a fund raising, so they have to be cautious with the cash they have.

Of course a lot can happen between now and then. Keep an eye on the Sterling/Rouble exchange rate because that can have a material effect on earnings.

[gfrae] 07/10/2020 08:41

Kenny, regardless of whether you call it a dividend or return of capital, it amounts to a benefit equal to the stated yield. ie if you tender your shares you get a slight premium on the share price and your shareholding as a proportion of the company remains the same. Those that don't tender also benefit by effectively increasing their share of the company as a proportion.
I think it is a very sensible and tax effective way of returning earnings to shareholders.
What we need now is for investors to have a look at the fundamentals of the company.
This is a warehouse company providing space for home deliveries, it is a beneficiary of the move direct deliveries that has been exacerbated by the Covid crisis. There is an upcoming float in New York of one of their customers.
They have 98% occupancy.
Russia is stable.
Russia has little foreign debt.
Russian consumers have relatively little personal debt and are still spending though much more online now.
Discount to NAV is ridiculous.....compare to WHR. These share should be trading at a premium to NAV they are in a growing sector.
The Invesco/RAVC overhang will sort itself out.

[bisiboy] 03/10/2020 10:01

what i have been doing is tendering and then buying back more shares in the market
so gradually increasing holding

[zangdook] 03/10/2020 03:24

But at the same time the number of shares in issue decreases, so if your measure is "how much of the company do I own" rather than "how many shares do I own" the return is much higher than that.

[kenny] 03/10/2020 02:11

That is not the actual yield on the ordinaries.

I think the company and others quote the yield incorrectly because they just take the
total dividend paid and divide it by the total number of shares in issue to arrive at the dividend per share. That may be how the company chooses to present the distribution but this is not an ordinary dividend but a buyback which the company touts as a dividend.

However, what the individual shareholder is receiving is two elements, a) a return of capital equal to ruling market price and b) a "dividend" of the excess.

Last time I worked it out the yield or return from the ordinaries - for a shareholder - is under 2%. Therefore, I have never found the ordinaries attractive as an investment. They might trade well below NAV but maybe that is warranted in view of the volatile ruble.

[tradertrev] 02/10/2020 08:22

Just seen a price change - make that effective yield 8.3%!

[tradertrev] 02/10/2020 08:21

If you are prepared for the (usually) 6 monthly buyback elections, the ordinaries have a higher yield currently than RAVC had - 7.5% on the basis of the most recent distribution. Of course the risks are different though!

[catsick] 02/10/2020 02:35

Now that the converts have been turned into ordinary plus pref I suspect there will be a bit of dumping of unwanted ords from income investors, situation is not totally terrible so there may be an opportunity to get some cheap ords ....I would be a 25p buyer