Raven Property Share Discussion Threads

[edmonda] 01/9/2020 12:37

Agree with last comments , very resilient performance from the portfolio in Rouble terms and both yield and NAV discount look excessive. Equity Dev have just publsihed a thorough review and estimate proforma NAV/share at 63p.
'In a low interest rate environment, reliable income from high-quality assets should progressively be reflected in NAV uplifts'

Read note here:

[tradertrev] 01/9/2020 10:02

And the NAV itself based on an 11% yield for the portfolio.

[gfrae] 01/9/2020 09:37

But, good results I would say. 93% occupancy, virtually no deferral of rent, a beneficiary of the new economy, Russian interest rate s down 3% since June and falling, Russian economy reasonable under the circs. Problem caused by fall in Rouble vs sterling reducing NAV to 58p.
Solution being sought for INvesco overhang.
Discount to NAV = ludicrous.

[zangdook] 01/9/2020 08:03

"Distribution will be by way of tender offer on the basis of 1 in 16 shares at 36p per share. No over allocation will be permitted."

I'm not impressed. Why not let us have the over-allocation? It's no skin off the company's nose, and it gives those of us who are on the ball a little extra reward.

[gfrae] 21/8/2020 12:12

Thanks,zangdook. Until this large overhang is removed it is hard to see the shares moving anywhere.

[zangdook] 21/8/2020 11:17

There's this from 14 July, which doesn't really tell us anything conclusive. If the pref & ord deals have also lapsed I don't know how they'll re-assess them.

"The conditional agreement entered into by the Company on 12 December 2019 (as amended by deeds of amendment dated 11 March 2020 and 23 April 2020, respectively) for the off-market purchase of 42,118,860 of the Company's Convertible Preference Shares from IAM (acting as agent for its underlying funds, IHIF and IIF) will lapse with effect from 31 July 2020. The Company will re-assess the purchase agreements between the Company and IAM in respect of the purchase by the Company of 139,678,106 Ordinary Shares and 41,803,518 Preference Shares as market conditions settle and will make an announcement in this regard when appropriate."

[gfrae] 20/8/2020 16:04

ok...answering my own question, looks like deal has lapsed.

[gfrae] 20/8/2020 10:09

Have I missed it ? I thought we were expecting news of the Investec buy back...wasn't the long stop date the end of July ?
Anybody know ?
Cheers g.

[tradertrev] 20/8/2020 09:28

Putin bumping off another political opponent isn't going to help here!

[edmonda] 20/7/2020 14:48

Raven Property’s trading update was reassuring, with even some signs of Covid crisis accelerating moves to e-commerce supply chains. Portfolio is 93% leased with good rent collection levels in recent months, and at end May had seen no material change in its Rouble value from end Dec '19

Read new research from Equity Development here:

[zangdook] 15/7/2020 01:26

Irish_Neris

2 and a quarter pence

[eskilys] 14/7/2020 18:08

gfrae, yes that's one part of it (that the financing through RAVC and RAVP is very expensive). However, even more shocking is the fact that administrative costs and bonuses are so high. For 2019, they made up close to 25%. There are certainly some posts in Administrative expenses that could be considered non-regular and the costs might come down a bit. However, it's still way too high for the shares to be valued at par with NAV. They deserve a steep discount as long as the company is managed without focus on cost control.

[irish_neris] 14/7/2020 16:55

Sorry if this is stupid but reading the notice put out today and the paragraph saying tender offer buyback of 2.25p is that £2.25 or 2 & a quarter pence.

[zangdook] 14/7/2020 16:38

sounds good to me, provided they do go ahead with the tender

[gfrae] 23/4/2020 16:40

eskilys, is it because of the payments to RAVC and RAVP holders ?
It appears that the buy in of Invesco's holding backstopped until July has effectively been reduced by £40 odd million, as they are no longer buying their RAVC holding. Which could be bullish or bearish depending on how you see the future.

[eskilys] 27/3/2020 06:17

Hi, could someone help me understand the discrepancy between the attractive NAV and the not so attractive cash flow to common shareholders?

My point is that yes, from a balance sheet perspective the common shares look rather attractive (big upside to NAV). However, from a cash flow perspective there is very little free cash flow after financial expenses.

My observation is that a big chunk of the cash flow goes to general & administrative expenses. Actually, well above 20% of Net rental income goes to paying for administrative expenses and bonuses. This figure seems enormous compared to other real estate companies (6% for Sagax, a Swedish real estate company I'm invested in).

Any thoughts?

[zangdook] 24/3/2020 08:25

36p is still well below NAV, but they should be buying back in the market at the same time. I wouldn't like to vote no and then find we don't follow the recovery when it comes because Invesco are dumping in the market.

[catsick] 24/3/2020 07:46

I guess at these levels the shareholders vote no and the company have to renegotiate with invesco to buy them much much lower, oh dear poor invesco .....

[gfrae] 18/3/2020 13:27

If the company has contracted to buy Invesco's shares at 36p "subject to shareholders approval".... what happens if shareholders decide not to approve ? can the terms be renegotiated ?
Anybody know ?

[zangdook] 17/3/2020 08:40

future NAV may be affected by the location of their assets. Brexit and the plague may harm UK asset values. Despite its long border, Russia is doing pretty well on the disease front. I'm happy to have a toe or two in Russian waters.

[tyranosaurus] 16/3/2020 11:50

Good results but bad time to release them.

[gfrae] 11/3/2020 22:09

At 31st of July 2019 debt was as Davebowler says. How do you know it has changed since then?

[horndean eagle] 11/3/2020 20:56

debt denomination had changed markedly through the year. much more rouble/euro at expense of dollar