Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[jaf111] 14/2/2022 12:12

xd this Thursday (17th)...

[montyhedge] 14/2/2022 12:08

Being lazy when is ex, may top up. Income investors are the most nervous, giving Pref away, thanks boys.

[badtime] 14/2/2022 10:35

Bit lower and I might top up

[gfrae] 11/2/2022 14:30

There you have a governor in Elvira Nebiullina who takes the value of her currency seriously and is not trying to inflate away it's debt. This should also lead to Rouble revaluation when things calm down.
Luckily for RAVEN it is in a position to benefit from the strong economy whilst having it's rising interest rate costs hedged.
I hope that this will be reflected in the upcoming results.

[kenny] 11/2/2022 11:51

The Bank of Russia increases the key rate by 100 b.p. to 9.50% p.a.

[badtime] 10/2/2022 20:45

As I thought a gd price as per normal:)

[rayg5] 10/2/2022 18:25

Well traded, tiltonboy

[badtime] 10/2/2022 16:34

How much u pay Tilts ..a gd price no doubt

[montyhedge] 10/2/2022 12:17

What do you reckon 15p knocked off shareprice because of Ukraine situation if resolved diplomatically I expect a nice rise. In the meantime another 3p in the ISA bag.

[igbertsponk] 10/2/2022 12:15

News for Prefs is always announced by the company and only appears under the RAV ticker.
Bit silly, but that's always been the way.

[rayg5] 10/2/2022 12:08

Where did you see the divi confirmed?

[tiltonboy] 10/2/2022 10:36

picked up 12,500 pretty easily!

[tradertrev] 10/2/2022 09:39

The prefs are bid-only at the moment (at 106.5p). Can't even buy 1000 through HL.

[igbertsponk] 10/2/2022 07:30

Divi confirmed. Dates as per above

[gfrae] 07/2/2022 10:32

I agree with you Kenny it is not really a "dividend", though I have a different perspective and am an ordinary shareholder. Whilst the shares are trading at a discount to NAV I am very happy that they are buying back shares and don't care what they call it. I would have a different view if they were trading at a large premium, actually then I probably would not care as I probably would not be a shareholder.
Thanks for posting the agents assessments and views of the Russian warehouse market, and I also believe we will see an uplift in rents and hence NAV. Russia looks well positioned economically and Raven should benefit from the move to internet shopping. I think there is a good case for the shares to be standing at a premium to NAV like its Western counterparts.

[tradertrev] 07/2/2022 08:33

I don't have the detailed figures to hand to back this up, but it would appear that for the first time since 2014 there is now solid positive reversionary income potential in RAV's portfolio, as opposed to negative for the past several years. IMO only.

[irish_neris] 06/2/2022 21:09

Probably not a bad thing to have a few vacant units if rates for new lets are going up

[flyfisher] 05/2/2022 19:05

Despite Ravens high occupancy level CBRE has several Raven properties on its books.

[kenny] 05/2/2022 14:36

The Moscow warehouse report from CBRE for Q4 2021 is out and can be downloaded from this link:


The whole report is worth reading but I highlight to anyone interested in RAVP - for the long term - to read page 5 of the report – the section headed “Commercial Terms”.

[kenny] 04/2/2022 18:08

flyfisher - I think the NAV will increase because the company uses the income capitalisation method of valuing its properties.

Whether the valuers will revalue all the properties upward is questionable. In particular, for properties that have longer leases that would result in anticipating that rents will remain at current levels, when over the time remaining before expiry, rents may moderate. Therefore, I don't know how big the NAV increase will be but it could be large, albeit cashflow will undoubtedly be effected by the increase in Russian interest rates.

I am not a fan of the ordinaries because of the method the company uses to pay a "dividend". They buy back shares and announce they are paying a yield, for example
in the past of 6%. In reality, for shareholders it is about 1% - when you take account of the fact that most of the dividend is a return of capital. I pointed this out to Investors Chronicle some years ago when they were tipping the ordinaries as having a 6% yield. IC referred my comment to the brokers who actually tried to justify that yield because the company was paying out 6% of its market capitalisation. When I replied with an example showing the actual yield on the ordinaries was almost nothing and asked them to tell me what yield a holder would receive over 10 years, if they took up all buybacks and the share price did not change, it suddenly went very quiet!!

As indicated above, I am not a fan of the ordinaries. However, given the potential jump in NAV, no doubt some are thinking of buying before the results and hoping to sell at a profit if there is a bounce in the ordinary share price. Good luck to anyone who wishes to try that. It's not what I would regard as investing. In the event it goes wrong, especially given the current political situation, a person would be left holding ordinary shares that may take considerable time to recover, which in the meanwhile have no yield worth speaking of.

[flyfisher] 04/2/2022 15:18

Thanks kenny, any opinion as to what extent that is expected to flow through to current valuations?

[igbertsponk] 04/2/2022 15:06

Colliers report out too
"By the end of 2021, the total supply of high-quality warehouse complexes in the Moscow region reached 19.7 million sq m. At the same time, the volume of commissioning amounted to 1.49 million sq m, which is 60% higher than last year's figure. 2021 was characterised by high activity of tenants in the Moscow region warehouse market. The volume of purchased and leased space reached 2.47 million sq m, which is a historical high. Online and offline retailers retain a dominant position in the market, remaining the key drivers of demand growth in the warehouse real estate segment. The upward trend in rental rates, which began in 2017, was most clearly visible in 2021."

Full report here

[igbertsponk] 04/2/2022 15:04

Apart from the small matter of a possible war, Russia market doing well
Cushmans report;
"In 2021, all key market indicators performed record values. Almost all vacant area was leased, the highest take-up on record was observed for the second year in a row. The new commissioning exceeded results of the last 7 years. Aggressive growth of rental rates became the top topic on the market.

In 2022, the market will continue to perform strongly. Construction costs growth is expected to slow down which may provide an opportunity for some new unique warehouse solutions and completion of current constructions on time."

Full report here