Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 01/12/2021 16:30

Thanks Kenny, like it good for Raven.

[kenny] 01/12/2021 12:46

Colliers Q3 2021 report is out and can be downloaded here:


This report is consistent with others, namely, that warehouse rents have increased materially during 2021. Also confirms that the increased cost of building materials is forcing up rents in new build and, therefore, also existing warehouses.

[igbertsponk] 30/11/2021 11:54

Scrip divi is priced at 136p this time.

[rayg5] 29/11/2021 11:45

The recent slide below 100 was due to non-fundamental causes. Based on the sound fundamentals, the yield should be lower than currently. It is where it is because London investors are cautious about Russia. I view that as a reason for the mispricing.

[montyhedge] 29/11/2021 09:40

I have seen it all in the 11 years I been holding this, down to 97p up to 167p.The important thing they have never missed a payment.

[rayg5] 26/11/2021 15:40

You'd think RAVP would react to a 9% fall in Brent Crude but it does seem to behave like a safe haven.

[montyhedge] 26/11/2021 11:03

Dollar down interest rates won't rise now, gold and ftse 100 gold miners especially Polymetal yield 7% will take off.Raven prefs safe haven.

[rayg5] 26/11/2021 10:52

The bad COVID News has hit the dollar and benefited risk currencies such as sterling but RAVP is immune.

[rayg5] 26/11/2021 10:49

True. This is currency related and other than that the political news has to be pretty earth shattering for the share price to be affected. Fundamentally and from the research available it's pretty solid and a useful income earner. Yes it's dull but it's rock solid. Why do people seek excitement? Isn't a regular income stream enough for them?

[montyhedge] 26/11/2021 10:08

That's was technical, forced seller.

[king suarez] 26/11/2021 09:44

That is true - yet it tanked in March 2020?

[montyhedge] 26/11/2021 09:34

The good thing also with this pref capital preservation, has the stock market crash, apart from gold shares, due to covid worries again, this remains unchanged.

[cwa1] 25/11/2021 16:19

Only another 3 months less a week to the next XD! Not sure how much difference it really makes personally

[rayg5] 25/11/2021 16:18

What people here don't understand is that the Putin factor is a positive as long as he remains unopposed.

[rayg5] 25/11/2021 16:16

No case for buying while it's ex-div, I guess. I plan a major top up so happy if it treads water or slips a touch. It's all about income.

[meathed] 23/11/2021 03:20

I'd say Putin is responding to perceived threats from the West, in particular to the noises being ventriloquised through the mouth of little Zelensky. Wake me up when Russian troops start setting up bases and carrying out exercises in Mexico, or when Canada proposes to cancel its arrangements with the US in favour of a free trade deal with Russia.

If you want to know what he's thinking, read his speeches. He's usually very clear and open, and there are no end of transcripts published in English translation on en.kremlin.ru

[kenny] 23/11/2021 01:10

Yes, the rouble and the Russian stock market both moved sharply lower on Monday.

I think the reason is US concerns over possible Russian military intervention in Ukraine early next year. The US is warning this is a possibility but it does say Putin has not yet made up his mind about an invasion. This has been going on for about a week.

Meanwhile Russia, including Putin is denying that they are going to invade Ukraine and denying it on a daily basis. Today, the denials were ramped up when the Russian stock market and rouble moved markedly downward.

I think Putin will not invade as the new sanctions then imposed would send Russia back to the dark ages and probably threaten his own wealth - he is rumoured to be the richest person in the World. Also, would it and the sanctions that would follow lead to revolution in Russia - Putin would probably have to factor that in.

So which side is lying or playing propaganda games? Probably both sides? I don't think an invasion will occur, but on the other hand, Putin is unpredictable. Also, we have been here before, with troops massing on the border and nothing came of it. Putin is trying to show that Russia is still a world player.

[george stobart] 22/11/2021 16:48

ruble collapsing against sterling because of turkish lira crisis

[rahosi] 22/11/2021 12:50

LLOYDS 9.25% Prefs LLPC Tender Offer. Only a 12.44% take up by Institutional holders. Think I'll continue to hold those.

[quigonjin] 21/11/2021 17:43

Thanks Kenny, much appreciated

[wllmherk] 20/11/2021 17:32

to be honest Kenny I hold these solely for income so not at all bothered about fluctuations in the share price This has been one of my best performers this year as I bought at 112p locking in a 10% yield.

wllm :)

[kenny] 20/11/2021 13:41

Not a good week, specifically for ordinary shareholders. Both oil and the rouble were down materially and the rouble is within a few kopeks of its level at 30.06.21.

If these levels persist, the company’s cash flow will be squeezed and the ability to pay dividends on the ordinaries, via share buybacks, may not be fully funded by cashflow but rather by part of their cash reserves. Because of the JV – which is weighted in favour of the directors – they have to keep paying at least something each year on the ordinaries to finance the debt of the JV. Remember, the directors put not one penny of cash into the JV whereas the company injected about £15m and even paid £1.5m of legal costs which should really have been paid by the JV or the directors.

Interest rates have increased substantially and bear in mind that interest rates are the most significant factor in determining the company’s net income. Having jumped by 0.75% to 7.5% in October, the view seems to be that in December they will be increased to 8.5% because, since October, inflation in Russia has risen again; to 8.1%.

Of course, one has to consider the offsetting factor of warehouse rents rising materially during 2021. Unfortunately, this is going to be slow in feeding into an increase in income. The average of lease expiries over the next 3 years, 2022 to 2024, is 13.5% per annum of the total portfolio – that is 244k out of a total of warehouse property of 1.8m sq. m. I have ignored possible lease breaks because I assume no tenant is going to exercise an early break of their lease, when the consequence is a large increase in rent at any other property they move to.

An increase in rental income is, therefore, going to be slow to feed through to the bottom line whereas, with all of the debt at floating rate, the increase in interest cost is immediate. The company has interest rate caps in place at 7.6% with a weighted average term to maturity of 1.8 years but the rise in interest cost to 7.6%, from 4.25%, is still going to be substantial.

In summary, my view is that investors in RAVP have to be prepared for the possibility that the share price moves, more or less, sideways for an extended period of time. However, the trend over that same time period is that the security of the coupon on RAVP is slowly improving.

[rayg5] 19/11/2021 16:05

Given the choice of a buy to let and RAVP there's no contest

[rayg5] 19/11/2021 16:03

I'll be doing similar when I've sold.

[rayg5] 19/11/2021 16:02

Fair play sponk