Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[kenny] 11/4/2021 00:26

"Historic pandemics data provide warning for owners of capital"
Bad news for rich people but records show natural rate of interest declines for decades


You may need a subscription to the FT to read the above article, published 10 April, but below is an extract:

"Not good news for rich people, but “following a pandemic, the natural rate of interest declines for decades, reaching a nadir about 20 years later, with the natural rate about 150bp [1.5 percentage points] lower had the pandemic not taken place”.

That “natural rate” has also shown a secular decline over the centuries, from about 10 per cent in medieval times, to 5 per cent at the start of the industrial revolution in the west, to near 0 per cent today."


The article references this Federal Reserve study which shows pandemics lead to low interest rates for decades, whereas wars lead to high interest rates in the following 30-40 years:

[cc2014] 09/4/2021 10:16

I think you raise a good point Uncle Sam that any investor buying fixed interest pref shares should carefully consider the impact of capital gains or losses.

I don't own any other pref shares as I think they are all overpriced when my perception of capital losses are factored in. I appreciate others may have different views on where interest rates are likely to go but for me there are far too many private investors chasing yield and buying on headline yields. It is a difficult time for private investors looking for decent fixed interest returns because central bank policy has squashed yields so much and almost everything looks expensive to em.


In your case sadly you paid too much but nothing can be done about that now. Your decision process now is whether at 115p they are likely to go up or down and if you feel they will go down whether it is so slowly that the coupon outweighs this.

My personal view is that RAVP has been hammered by the Woodford/Invesco fiasco and very slowly the share price will creep up even against a background of rising gilt yields. I think 125p not unreasonable in a years time and a slow continued climb in the share price above that in due course.

I'm not really that bothered though. If the share price fell 3% a year for the next few years I'd still get a mighty return overall. I would of course much prefer the share price went back to 160p at which time I'll almost certainly be selling.

[stemis] 09/4/2021 09:46

I've held these 10 years (got some through Raven Mount) at 111.6p. A 10 year IRR of 10.75% is fine.

[uncle_sam] 09/4/2021 09:43

Well lucky you.

[riskvsreward] 09/4/2021 09:41

It is true if you bought the whole lot at 138p and hold it through time. It is another matter if like me you bought in many lots at price range of 101 to 140 p.

[uncle_sam] 09/4/2021 09:31

I have held a fair sized chunk of these for more than 5 years. Yes, the divi is good and is paid on time. My concern, however, is the lack of any capital appreciation whatsoever. Over 5 years the share price has slumped steadily from circa 138 to 115 (yeah, yeah, I know it is not a "growth" stock, and there are minor ups & downs at divi time or market crash, and the UK market itself has not been very robust either, etc.) This is not an option. So one must factor in the 3.5% average annual shrinkage in this "investment".

[eeza] 08/4/2021 08:53

Yes, monty gets 3p every quarter.

[montyhedge] 08/4/2021 08:48

Yes been good held for 11 years, never missed a payment.

[montyhedge] 08/4/2021 08:46

You know what I mean 10.52% tax free in a isa, thicko.

[cc2014] 08/4/2021 08:35

The only thing not to like is that I can't find 10 investments as good as this one!

[eeza] 08/4/2021 08:34

"10.52% tax free paid quarterly"

Lol.

10.52% a year I think.

[montyhedge] 08/4/2021 07:53

The Isa money coming in, 10.52% tax free paid quarterly what's not to like.

[cwa1] 08/4/2021 07:46

And another tiny sign of blue. Hope springs eternal...

[my retirement fund] 07/4/2021 22:18

Is is possible to send dividends directly to Alexei Navalny Or script dividends please? Thanks.

[my retirement fund] 07/4/2021 22:17

Hi please advise who I can transfer my dividends to Alexei Navalny Thanks?

[king suarez] 07/4/2021 21:18

For those with an interest in fixed income/high yield - I have covered STCM in a private investor podcast today. You might find the analysis of interest:

[king suarez] 07/4/2021 21:18

For those with an interest in fixed income/high yield - I have covered STCM in a private investor podcast today. You might find the analysis of interest:

[montyhedge] 07/4/2021 14:38

Start of new Isa tax year, 12p tax free in Isas.

[igbertsponk] 07/4/2021 14:02

Life... anyone would think it was a new tax year and the ISAs were filling...

[montyhedge] 07/4/2021 13:46

We know this patient will soon be running marathons. Ridiculous low price.

[cwa1] 07/4/2021 13:28

Wow. A HINT of a flicker up from WING. Almost as if the patient has still got faint signs of life :-)

[cassini] 06/4/2021 15:22

Fly,

IMB and BATS in the 'sin stock' category.

DGOC as mentioned, but 'may' be subject to US withholding tax at 15% if held in an ISA but it's 0% in a SIPP. I say 'may' in inverted commas as there is some confusion on the subject...

[stun12] 06/4/2021 11:55

MNG also worth a look on the divi front.

[zangdook] 06/4/2021 10:52

This site will give you the current yields on FTSE350 and Investment Trusts. Quite a few over 6%.



If you want specific suggestions, PHNX and LGEN haven't been mentioned yet.

[pogue] 06/4/2021 10:52

BOI is around 6.3%, obviously DYOR not a recommendation to buy etc