Raven Prop P Discussion Threads

[montyhedge] 07/8/2020 09:34

Another 3p in the bag, in these troubled times, a safe haven.

[cwa1] 06/8/2020 07:26

Announcement of dividend data:-

6 August 2020

Raven Property Group Limited ("Raven" or the "Company")

Preference Share Dividend (RAVP)

The Directors of the Company confirm that the quarterly payment of the preference dividend in respect of the preference shares of 1p each with ticker RAVP (the "Preference Shares") will be made, in accordance with their terms, on 30 September 2020 in respect of the period from 30 June 2020 to (but excluding) 30 September 2020. The record date for the payment of the preference dividend for the Preference Shares is 14 August 2020 with an ex-dividend date of 13 August 2020.

The Preference Shares will be entitled to a gross dividend of 3 pence per Preference Share.

A scrip dividend alternative (to be settled in Preference Shares) will also be available for all preference shareholders in respect of the preference dividend.

[igbertsponk] 06/8/2020 07:24

Preference Share Dividend (RAVP)The Directors of the Company confirm that the quarterly payment of the preference dividend in respect of the preference shares of 1p each with ticker RAVP (the "Preference Shares") will be made, in accordance with their terms, on 30 September 2020 in respect of the period from 30 June 2020 to (but excluding) 30 September 2020. The record date for the payment of the preference dividend for the Preference Shares is 14 August 2020 with an ex-dividend date of 13 August 2020.The Preference Shares will be entitled to a gross dividend of 3 pence per Preference Share.A scrip dividend alternative (to be settled in Preference Shares) will also be available for all preference shareholders in respect of the preference dividend.

[kenny] 05/8/2020 13:07

"How low can the Bank of England go? Six considerations for negative interest rates"

[kenny] 04/8/2020 15:12

Some persistent selling of the ordinaries; which I assume is one or more institutional holders selling part of their current holdings in advance of receiving more ordinaries together with preference, RAVP, in exchange for the convertible preference. Also, Schroder’s has been selling before the voting date – in the period since 31 March, a total of about 12.6m ordinaries, albeit they do not hold either of the preference classes.

To date, the same does not appear to be happening with RAVP. There could still be some selling of RAVP by current or new holders. However, the yield in excess of 9% is surely attractive in current markets and likely to remain attractive for a long time. Interest rates will surly stay below 2% for the next decade, if not longer. For these reasons, it is likely that the bulk of new holders will wish to retain the RAVP element they receive in exchange.

Based upon the above logic, I have recently been topping up with money I don’t need to touch for the next decade. In other words, I am ignoring likely price fluctuations and contenting myself with the yield: currently 9.6%. The share price will go up and down over the next 10 years and I do not know where it will be 10 years hence. However, I am certain that the coupon will be paid.

As always, DYOR and do not rely solely upon anyone’s opinions, including mine!

[loobrush] 02/8/2020 19:02

Well Kenny I tend to agree with your views having quite a large holding in RAVP for 6-7 years during which time the regular divis have made a very nice return and should continue to do so.The other thing I noticed that is the current interest rates in Russia have been dropping and could go down further which shiuld be very good news for RAVP keeping their borrowing costs down.
I am surprised that the shares are not more popular as with investors.

[montyhedge] 02/8/2020 17:35

Thanks Kenny your on the ball.

[kenny] 02/8/2020 12:16

As expected, all resolutions were passed which means the convertible will be exchanged on 30 September for a combination of ordinaries and RAVP.

This really is very good news for the sole remaining preference class, whose security is immensely enhanced. It also reduces the company’s interest expense by about £4m a year therefore adding more cover to the coupon on RAVP.

Before paying any dividend on the ordinaries, as a buyback, the preference coupon must be paid.

This is excellent news for RAVP but I am not sure if this will be reflected in the share price: in the short term.

[holts] 31/7/2020 19:32

Russian testing will be on the population I suspect .

[kenny] 29/7/2020 00:52

"Russia prepares for world's first approval of a Covid-19 vaccine by mid-August, but questions remain"


Would be pretty amazing if Russia was able to launch a vaccine by 10 August albeit the article is rightly sceptical. On the other hand, I suspect the Kremlin would not let this news out if they had not made a breakthrough.

As always with the Russian state, it is hard to know, what is the truth!! However, I thought it worth posting here because one way or another, it seems likely Russia will have a vaccine in the near future, even if this one proves not to be the one that works.

[stun12] 23/7/2020 12:10

Thanks, Kenny. Not a huge overhang of converted RAVC to get through. I have a few and will probably sell the common and reinvest into RAVP as the convertibles were part of an income portfolio. I suspect others may do similar.

[johnroger] 23/7/2020 11:12

Thanks for the analysis Kenny

[montyhedge] 23/7/2020 11:11

Forget Retail and office blocks, warehousing is the place to be if this U.K. company anything to go by.It's the old Slough Estates boring but they have tripled.Hopefully Russian warehouses going the same way.https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/07/06/ftse-100-warehousing-boss-riding-crest-covid-wave/

[kenny] 23/7/2020 10:45

Having digested the various Circulars and the Prospectus issued on the 14 July, it appears the company is undertaking the conversion of the convertible preference in a different manner than first assumed.

It is complex to explain, but basically the important resolutions only need a majority of 75% of those voting to pass. As they have approximately 70% of those eligible to vote indicating they will vote in favor, I suggest the conversion is a done deal. It would be highly unlikely for the remaining shareholders to all vote against the resolution. Many will not vote due to holding their shares through a nominee. The more that do not or are unable to vote, means that the 70% in favor represents a greater proportion of the 75% of total votes cast.

Accordingly, I suggest the conversion of the convertible is unstoppable. This change in the share structure has two major consequences, as below.

First, there is a doubling of the RAVP class in issue.

Second, with the convertible preference shares gone, the sole remaining preference shares stand first in line in terms of security of capital, should anything go wrong. This is a really important aspect when assessing RAVP as an investment.

In conclusion, Mr. Market should accord RAVP a higher rating but in the short term, this may be balanced by new holders selling some or all of their holdings. Longer term, the former should overcome the latter.

[igbertsponk] 22/7/2020 11:46

I did, but want more.

[montyhedge] 22/7/2020 10:33

Ahhh annoying should have added when the price was down.

[igbertsponk] 22/7/2020 10:13

Sneaking up again... annoying for those of us wanting to add.

[kenny] 22/7/2020 01:41

"UK Construction industry heads towards deflation"


"Unstoppable tech-driven deflation will be the next economic challenge"


"Deflation or Inflation - Where Are We Exactly?"


Deflation: The post-pandemic problem

[cfro] 21/7/2020 15:36

pogue, seen it already and yes very insightful.

[igbertsponk] 21/7/2020 15:21

Japan a special case as odd demographics with a declining ageing population and no significant immigration to counteract.

[pogue] 21/7/2020 15:03

cfro
for some more background on the collapse of Japan a very interesting book/documentary is Princes of the Yen it will surprise you but give you a great insight into the operation of central banks around the world worth watching the video at least...

[cfro] 21/7/2020 13:56

Interesting discussion re inflation here recently.

I see on the "other" bb the poster kenny is making the suggestion that we could see deflation.

I have to say i am fed up with arguing with people on whether we will see inflation or deflation. To me the answer is obvious - its what we've always had!

What do we mean by deflation?
What is meant by "Japanese style deflation"?

In Japan it was asset price deflation with house prices, prime land and the stock market falling into bear markets. The Yen was largely weak against a basket of currencies and food prices and every day consumer goods rose.

Will we see asset price deflation here in the UK?

Well, the central banks have a mandate to stop deflation at all costs. We witnessed what they can do back in March. The UK economy depends so much on the level of house prices, no BoE or UK government wants house prices to fall.

How about food or every day consumer goods? Why should they fall, what would cause them to fall?

The day that the younger generations have a chance to buy a house 20% cheaper or even preferably cheaper than we bought our houses for, and the day i go to a pub and buy a pint for a £1 i might be swayed that we have deflation in the system but until then i continue to believe that we continue to see rates of inflation here in the UK increase and possibly even see hyperinflation at some point in the future.

[igbertsponk] 20/7/2020 15:50

And in summary
"Robust trading, rent receipt and occupation

Raven’s positive trading update was reassuringly robust, despite ongoing uncertainty regarding the long-term impact of Covid-19 on the Russian market.

It has tempered its own leasing expectations for the next 18 months and assumes some sectors will delay planned investment/expansion. But sees potential and indeed some evidence that the crisis will accelerate moves to create e-commerce supply chains.

The Group derives its competitive positioning from a 1.9m sqm portfolio of logistics warehouses. These play a crucial role in Moscow’s logistics networks and supply chains, allowing local supermarkets, their suppliers and e-commerce arms to continue to operate during lockdown.

Rent collection reflects a tenant profile which has largely continued to operate during lockdown restrictions. Raven’s warehouse portfolio is currently 93% leased and it has collected on average over 96% of rent due in each month since March.

Underlying portfolio resilience was confirmed by an independent appraisal carried out by JLL as at 31 May 2020, which recorded no material movement in Rouble values vs 31 December 2019.

We believe that kind of performance deserves more attention, and hope to reinstate detailed forecasts post the General Meeting on 31 July (re a simplified capital structure) and the interim results."

[igbertsponk] 20/7/2020 15:49

Today's updated research

[kenny] 20/7/2020 01:26

"Treasury's austerity hawks risk pushing the UK into a Japanese-style deflation trap"


Very interesting article, a couple of days' ago, from The Telegraph about the UK heading for deflation. Here is an extract:

"The other Japanification winner is corporate credit. Bank of America says yields will keep dropping as investors try to escape the “no-go zone” of sub-zero rates.

The European Central Bank has signalled that it will buy many more industrial and commercial bonds (though not bank bonds), making the trade almost irresistible for fixed income funds. Some €160bn of European company debt is trading at negative yields. “We think it will go to €500bn soon,” said Mr Martin."
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I wait to see whether RAVP attracts more long term investors - over the next two years or so. Not that I am planning on selling in a couple of years, for the simple reason that the rate of return will, in effect, be even more attractive then; as Mr. Market realises that interest rates may stay low for decades.