| Date | Subject |
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07/4/2020
20:35 | hotaimstocks: funding before may or this will go bust!! the share price is a wake up call to all left holding this zero profit stock.
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19/3/2020
11:21 | transhoneyqueens: 100k sold as share price holds up well today
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15/1/2020
15:08 | callumross: Russ Mould, investment director at AJ Bell, said: "Quiz by name, quiz by nature. Everyone now asks the same question to the retailer: why is trading consistently poor? The company has issued yet another update showing declining sales albeit managing not to suffer a profit warning because expectations were already so low.
"The retailer reported sales growth from its own websites but revenue from third party website partners remains weak. That suggests its clothes are not standing out from the crowd and its problems may simply lie in its creative department.
"It’s proposition is to sell clothes for people’s memorable occasions. For investors who have suffered a huge fall in the share price - down 90% since joining the stock market in July 2017 – the only memorable thing about the business is its inability to generate value for shareholders."
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13/8/2019
12:56 | mnomis: Well, options package are pretty widely spread across senior management. If options meant to incentivise, options at ex price of £1.60 + vs a share price of 15p were pretty meaningless. I would have liked a higher strike price, but ... What would be good would be to see some good cuts to the salary bills ...
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05/4/2019
10:12 | dangersimpson2: D&A for H1 was £1.7m so assuming similar rate for H2 and EBITDA guided at £4.5m for the FY there will probably be a small £0.5-1m profit. Of course this means H2 was loss making, by about £1.4m EBITDA and maybe £3m LBT, so less than impressive.
We know they ramped-up costs in anticipation of sales growth that never came, which then combined with discounting led to a deterioration of gross margins, some brexit related, and some simply getting the range wrong. This has taken the company from forecasting a strong profit to close to break-even, and more than a 90% drop in the market cap.
I doubt we will see insider buying. If they are not already in a close period they will be in the next few days. Not sure any exec directors could buy either, given the size of their existing holdings. Although it is spread across family members, I expect that they would be considered a concert party, forcing a mandatory bid at the current SP, which would be unsuccessful but a waste of time. Non-execs could have bought without triggering this, but this again isn't necessarily a positive sign given that the Chairman runs the most likely company to make an offer, if one ever came.
The positives are:
- that before things went wrong they had a very healthy gross margin of 60%+, higher than many retailers that are considered higher quality. So if they can either deliver the growth they have staffed for, or cut costs back to meet more modest expectations, they should have a profitable business again. One thing that will be key is to get their range and marketing campaigns right, the management should focus pretty strongly here IMO.
- They have the cash to see them through this period of poor trading so there is very little risk of insolvency in the short to medium term, giving them plenty of time to turn things around. I expect those who think so based on inferring a cash-burn from the last two trading statements don't understand working capital cycles.
- The immediate loss of Debenhams concessions looks unlikely. Debs management have told Mashley to go jump, and the company is likely to end up in the hands of the bondholders but as a trading entity, although with shareholders diluted to almost nothing. This means concession revenue will continue to be paid, and QUIZ will have been paid the important Christmas revenue by now. Long-term they are probably better off without the Debs concessions since I doubt they make much money, but in the short-term losing them due to either Debs admin, or Mashley kicking them out due to his rivalry with QUIZ chairman Peter Cowley, is likely to be a distraction management don't need at this time.
- Speaking of Cowley, JD Sports have been quite acquisitive lately. FOOT is a much better fit than QUIZ on product line, but QUIZ is a much better business on metrics such as gross margin & profitability, even in current weakened state. If they paid a similar EV for QUIZ it would be 72p per share. This is still obviously a highly unlikely outcome, but the FOOT example does show how big the difference between market price and industry value can be.
So in summary, despite the very poor recent half year, I don't think it is quite as gloomy as the current share price predicts.
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14/3/2019
14:00 | kaka47: Paul Scott QUIZ (LON:QUIZ)No. shares: 124.2mMarket cap: £18.3mTrading update (profit warning)QUIZ, the omni-channel fashion brand, announces an update on trading during the period between 1 January 2019 to 28 February 2019 ("the Period") and its expectations for the financial year ended 31 March 2019 ("FY 2019").Yet another disappointing update from this online & physical clothing retailer. It's one of these shares that seems to be on permanent ratchet downwards, with each profit warning smashing up the share price further. There was a nice rebound here, for traders, when it last bottomed out at c.20p, then (temporarily) bouncing to a peak of about 36p. Here we are today at just under 15p, which would have been unthinkable not long ago. Is it value now? Probably yes, but I'll crunch the numbers first.During the Period, the uncertain consumer spending backdrop has remained challenging for QUIZ. As a result, the Group has recorded a significant shortfall in sales compared to the Board's prior expectations. Furthermore, there has been a requirement to apply higher than anticipated discounts to clear excess stock.This sounds like management are in denial. When sales fall significantly below forecast, and they have to discount to clear stock, it means they got the fashions wrong. Simple as that. The first step to fixing that problem, is to admit it, which QUIZ doesn't seem to have done.Online sales are up 16.2% - not badPhysical stores (and concessions, which are mainly in Debenhams stores) are down a thumping 11.1%. Combine that with lower gross margins (to clear dud stock), and the fixed cost base of physical stores, and this will have a painful geared impact on the bottom line.Previous guidance was as follows;The Board previously anticipated that revenues for FY 2019 would be approximately £133.0m, which would have represented growth in sales in the final quarter of 9.2% compared to the previous year resulting in anticipated EBITDA* of £8.2m.New guidance today;Given the significant shortfall in sales experienced in the final quarter of FY 2019 to date, and should this trend continue throughout March 2019, the Group anticipates revenues for FY 2019 to now be approximately £129.0m.It is also expected that the increased level of discounting will have a material impact on gross margins generated in the final quarter of FY 2019.The Board now anticipates that the Group's EBITDA* will be approximately £4.5m for FY 2019.It's still profitable on an EBITDA basis, so not a complete disaster.Broker comments today are negative, as you would expect.Balance sheet - is strong, so I don't see any risk of QUIZ going bust. Also, it has very short leases on its physical stores, so we can expect to see it jettisoning loss-making stores quickly & easily over the next couple of years - providing potential upside. The concessions in Debenhams are likely to be slashed, due to DEB's own store closure plans. I've mentioned before the bad debt risk, if DEB goes bust, which I estimate could be up to c.£4m - a significant risk.My opinion - obviously this share has been an incredible disappointment, since floating in July 2017. It's now clear that the selling shareholders took advantage of an unsustainable period of good trading, to line their own pockets, in what is now clearly seen as an over-priced IPO.However, everything has its price, and I think £18m mkt cap for a cash-rich, still-profitable fashion chain, with strong online trading, looks far too cheap. I don't think it's likely to go bust, due to the balance sheet & strength, and short leases.A major sort-out is needed here. So divis are almost certainly likely to be cut, or abandoned altogether, and there are likely to be plenty of store closures, to restore profitability. I think deep head office cuts are probably also needed. Unfortunately, the company beefed up its central costs, anticipating expansion.Overall then, a dismal situation, but it looks recoverable. Management are experienced rag traders, and should be able to turn this around. I don't see any read-across for other retailers, online or physical. As one broker comments today, the problems here look home-grown. Fashion is highly competitive, and the fashions have been to be spot-on, and priced attractively, to persuade shoppers to part with their money. Especially when footfall in towns & cities is relentlessly falling, as more sales move online. Maybe QUIZ should focus entirely online, and dump all its physical stores?At 15p I think this one is priced for armageddon, yet it looks a survivable, and recoverable position. So I'll probably be catching this falling knife at some point.Amazingly, it has fallen over 90% since July last year. To me that looks a considerable over-reaction. We've seen with Superdry (LON:SDRY) and Footasylum (LON:FOOT) that considerable rebounds can happen, once investors become overly pessimistic after profit warnings.I don't see any read-across to other companies from today's warning. QUIZ is a fairly weak brand, and it got the product wrong. That doesn't have anything to do with macro factors, in my opinion.https://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-thu-7-mar-2019-quiz-aiea-455413/
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08/3/2019
11:16 | kaka47: Paul Scott On Quiz QUIZ (LON:QUIZ)Share price: 14.75p (down 54% today, at 11:44)No. shares: 124.2mMarket cap: £18.3mTrading update (profit warning)QUIZ, the omni-channel fashion brand, announces an update on trading during the period between 1 January 2019 to 28 February 2019 ("the Period") and its expectations for the financial year ended 31 March 2019 ("FY 2019").Yet another disappointing update from this online & physical clothing retailer. It's one of these shares that seems to be on permanent ratchet downwards, with each profit warning smashing up the share price further. There was a nice rebound here, for traders, when it last bottomed out at c.20p, then (temporarily) bouncing to a peak of about 36p. Here we are today at just under 15p, which would have been unthinkable not long ago. Is it value now? Probably yes, but I'll crunch the numbers first.During the Period, the uncertain consumer spending backdrop has remained challenging for QUIZ. As a result, the Group has recorded a significant shortfall in sales compared to the Board's prior expectations. Furthermore, there has been a requirement to apply higher than anticipated discounts to clear excess stock.This sounds like management are in denial. When sales fall significantly below forecast, and they have to discount to clear stock, it means they got the fashions wrong. Simple as that. The first step to fixing that problem, is to admit it, which QUIZ doesn't seem to have done.Online sales are up 16.2% - not badPhysical stores (and concessions, which are mainly in Debenhams stores) are down a thumping 11.1%. Combine that with lower gross margins (to clear dud stock), and the fixed cost base of physical stores, and this will have a painful geared impact on the bottom line.Previous guidance was as follows;The Board previously anticipated that revenues for FY 2019 would be approximately £133.0m, which would have represented growth in sales in the final quarter of 9.2% compared to the previous year resulting in anticipated EBITDA* of £8.2m.New guidance today;Given the significant shortfall in sales experienced in the final quarter of FY 2019 to date, and should this trend continue throughout March 2019, the Group anticipates revenues for FY 2019 to now be approximately £129.0m.It is also expected that the increased level of discounting will have a material impact on gross margins generated in the final quarter of FY 2019.The Board now anticipates that the Group's EBITDA* will be approximately £4.5m for FY 2019.It's still profitable on an EBITDA basis, so not a complete disaster.Broker comments today are negative, as you would expect.Balance sheet - is strong, so I don't see any risk of QUIZ going bust. Also, it has very short leases on its physical stores, so we can expect to see it jettisoning loss-making stores quickly & easily over the next couple of years - providing potential upside. The concessions in Debenhams are likely to be slashed, due to DEB's own store closure plans. I've mentioned before the bad debt risk, if DEB goes bust, which I estimate could be up to c.£4m - a significant risk.My opinion - obviously this share has been an incredible disappointment, since floating in July 2017. It's now clear that the selling shareholders took advantage of an unsustainable period of good trading, to line their own pockets, in what is now clearly seen as an over-priced IPO.However, everything has its price, and I think £18m mkt cap for a cash-rich, still-profitable fashion chain, with strong online trading, looks far too cheap. I don't think it's likely to go bust, due to the balance sheet & strength, and short leases.A major sort-out is needed here. So divis are almost certainly likely to be cut, or abandoned altogether, and there are likely to be plenty of store closures, to restore profitability. I think deep head office cuts are probably also needed. Unfortunately, the company beefed up its central costs, anticipating expansion.Overall then, a dismal situation, but it looks recoverable. Management are experienced rag traders, and should be able to turn this around. I don't see any read-across for other retailers, online or physical. As one broker comments today, the problems here look home-grown. Fashion is highly competitive, and the fashions have been to be spot-on, and priced attractively, to persuade shoppers to part with their money. Especially when footfall in towns & cities is relentlessly falling, as more sales move online. Maybe QUIZ should focus entirely online, and dump all its physical stores?At 15p I think this one is priced for armageddon, yet it looks a survivable, and recoverable position. So I'll probably be catching this falling knife at some point.Amazingly, it has fallen over 90% since July last year. To me that looks a considerable over-reaction. We've seen with Superdry (LON:SDRY) and Footasylum (LON:FOOT) that considerable rebounds can happen, once investors become overly pessimistic after profit warnings.I don't see any read-across to other companies from today's warning. QUIZ is a fairly weak brand, and it got the product wrong. That doesn't have anything to do with macro factors, in my opinion.https://www.stockopedia.com/content/small-cap-value-report-thu-7-mar-2019-quiz-aiea-455413/
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21/1/2019
14:32 | tomboyb: https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/quiz-QUIZ/share-news/Quiz-PLC-Holdings-in-Company/79088430
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11/1/2019
07:21 | tomboyb: https://uk.advfn.com/stock-market/london/quiz-QUIZ/share-news/Quiz-PLC-Christmas-Trading-Update/79033669
Lets see what the market makes of it -
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11/12/2018
20:42 | kaka47: Another tough day in the market for Quiz and I'm guessing that some investors that bought around the 50p mark are throwing the towel in and getting out before next weeks vote in parliament. Which is fair enough. But these posters got me thinking. The market caps and valuations of Quiz and BooHoo are radically different.But they're both targeting the same market and both based in Manchester. From Boohoo's perspective they get an incredible valuation from the market of about 67 to 70 times earnings. If they bought out Quiz and folded it into their business, they could buy the company for lets say £50mln, £12mln of which is cash! And the market would then re-rate the 5p annual earnings into a 67 70 times multiple. Thereby adding about £350mln to BooHoo's market cap. To me it looks like it would make so much sense for them to acquire the company. Anyway, it's just a thought.Another thought about the dropping share price is this. The last dividend Quiz paid was 0.8p and the last declared dividend was 0.4p. So, I believe the full year dividend is 1.2p. With a share price of 37p, that's a 3.2% dividend yield! Which is pretty darn good. With £12mln on the balance sheet, I can't see them cutting the dividend.Anyway, I remain convinced that the market price is a dislocation of common sense brought on by fear of the retail sector, a lack of investor familiarity with Quiz as they're new to the market and negative sentiment from the parliamentary vote next week. the storm may continue but one day someone will realise the ludicrous value here! LOL!
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PLUS1
