Pz Cussons Share Discussion Threads

[spoole5] 23/9/2021 14:57

A few suckered out at 207 yesterday

[philanderer] 23/9/2021 13:44

Nice bounce :-)

[spoole5] 23/9/2021 09:39

I think a case can be made for a much higher valuation based on the emerging markets exposure and the possibility of margin expansion due to being part of a much bigger company. 4-5 quid though is a tad on the high side though methinks.

[cfro] 23/9/2021 08:55

EssentialInvestor,

I completely disagree with you re potential valuations. This company has been valued at over £2bn in the recent past, there is no rhyme or reason why it can't again.

It's easy to project some decent revenue growth, along with margin improvement and eps could feasibly be back up to around 18-20p - even if that takes another 3 or four years minimum.

PZC has always commanded a high pe due to it's incredibly strong selling brands, therefore you could easily say a per of 25. That, in theory then, might suggest a future share share price of 450p - 500p.

Of course we can argue the toss on this and whether there would likely be a bid and at what price for ever and a day, so we will have to wait and see what this new CEO produces from here on out.

[buywell3] 22/9/2021 21:39

free stock charts from uk.advfn.com

[contrarian joe] 22/9/2021 17:30

Thanks Phil,always nice to to have a balanced view,(prety much agree with AJ Bell).

[spoole5] 22/9/2021 15:18

350 is the top imo. Family are in the minority so not their call

[essentialinvestor] 22/9/2021 14:46

They not going to get £2 BN for this, sorry to burst anyone's bubble!.

Would need to demonstrate strong multi year growth for that type of $,
or GBP In this case.

[essentialinvestor] 22/9/2021 14:46

They not going to get £2 BN for this, sorry to burst anyone's bubble!.

They would need to demonstrate strong multi year growth for that type of $,
or GBP In this case.

[cfro] 22/9/2021 14:37

Re any potential bid: i'm not so sure 350p would be anywhere near enough for the controlling family to court. The share price was as high as 425p in 2013 so i think it would need to be that or possible higher.

[spoole5] 22/9/2021 14:04

Hopefully they will start to buyback next year

[philanderer] 22/9/2021 13:51

1 million shares traded so far today.

[spoole5] 22/9/2021 12:51

I think it will need to be 350 or close. Long term it has great emerging market exposure. All the things in the statement re cost pressures and tough comparatives were already knowns, still think pzc better placed than most to withstand.

[philanderer] 22/9/2021 12:44

spoole, north of 300p for the family to even consider it ?


Sharecast:

AJ Bell investment director Russ Mould said Cussons had tough comparators to beat, given how last year's reporting period saw an unprecedented surge in sales.

“Furthermore, last year it barely had to do any cut-price promotions to shift products as demand went through the roof, implying that profit per bottle could be less this year if it reverts to historical discounting trends," he said.

“Fast forward to the start of its new financial year and there are pressures across the board, principally tough comparative figures to beat, significant cost inflation and ongoing disruptions to supply chains. "

"The company says it should still hit earnings forecasts if life doesn’t get worse, but the sharp decline in its share price in response to the trading update would suggest that investors don’t believe it will hit those estimates.”

[spoole5] 22/9/2021 11:53

I still think a bid is the most likley outcome here, quality brands that would almost certainly be much higher margin as part of a Unilever or reckitt

[philanderer] 22/9/2021 11:39

London Ev Standard


Carex and St Tropez owner PZ Cussons seeing ‘early warning signals’ over product delays


CEO Jonathan Myers told the Standard the overall cost of shipping and trucking goods to the UK from Asia and Africa has risen by around 10%

The boss of Carex and St Tropez owner PZ Cussons is monitoring "early warning signals" for threats that could delay delivery times, as the firm battles supply chain disruption and soaring costs.

Jonathan Myers, who is pursuing a long-term turnaround strategy at the listed company, told the Standard it is facing "unprecedented" raw materials price hikes, as well as seeing the overall cost of shipping and trucking goods to the UK from Asia and Africa rise by around 10%.

Myers said: "We are trying to work lots of levers to offset [these cost rises] and protect margins. Where necessary there will be price increases, but we are really trying to avoid this."

The chief executive said the company is managing to get products to shelves on time, but that well-publicised lorry driver shortages in Britain are a concern as "there literally aren't enough drivers to pick up containers from ports".

"There may be little bit of phasing, but so far we have got this under control," he said.

The consumer goods company said on Wednesday that group revenues for the three months to August 28 were down 9% compared to last year - when demand for Carex was still at an all-time high - although they were still 13% ahead of pre-Covid levels at £131.4 million.

Bosses expect the firm to return to year-on-year sales growth in the next quarter, "assuming no further disruption".

Myers concluded: "We're hitting the bumps with commodities and freight disruption, but we're managing our way through those bumps and remain confident that the strategy is working and remains the right strategy to continue with."

Third Bridge analyst, Alex Smith, said: "Along with most consumer categories, PZ is having to wrestle with commodity cost inflation.

“Investors will be watching how successfully the group protects margins and what impact this might have if competitors take a more aggressive approach to market share."

Shares in PZ Cussons fell by as much as 4.5% on Wednesday morning

[spoole5] 22/9/2021 10:07

At least the divi is rising again!

[philanderer] 22/9/2021 08:59

Ah, got it now. I see what you're getting at.

[cfro] 22/9/2021 08:56

The point being you dont have to "estimate or conclude something without sufficient information" at all. (note that i highlighted in bold the word "without").

All the information has been "out there" for those of us who put in the work. What the share price does before results day is neither here nor there as it is purely traders looking at and fixated on price and who dont read statements!

[philanderer] 22/9/2021 08:50

"...estimate or conclude (something) without sufficient information to be sure of being correct"

[cfro] 22/9/2021 08:47

Not sure what your meaning is behind that statement, but there is nothing different in these results than what has already been intimated by the company in previous statements for those of us who can be bothered to do our homework.

[philanderer] 22/9/2021 08:39

Plenty 'guessed' right over the last week.

Added a few at 214p.

[contrarian joe] 22/9/2021 08:27

Another big dollop down the plughole,nothing never seems to change in Nigeria.

[cfro] 22/9/2021 08:16

Agree that the family would not accept a low-ball bid.

Clearly the company lost its way in recent years, that much is known - (owning a yoghurt company for instance but now sold)
and hence obviously there is much more work to do in turning the business around. These things take time.

Must-win brands up 11% (21% over two years) and margins improved from 11.2% to 11.8%. Carex no.1 (and sales booming) demonstrates the power of the brands.

[spoole5] 22/9/2021 07:43

Brutal assessment by the market. These are toast withim 12 months