Pv Crystalox Solar Share Discussion Threads

[zcaprd7] 20/9/2016 09:15

Cjohn. Written down. Or disposed off? I thought they sold some to management and ditched the Japanese operations?

[zcaprd7] 19/9/2016 17:18

Indeed. By "business" I meant everything else... I noticed quite a few things as chunky assets on the balance sheet.

[cjohn] 19/9/2016 11:04

Hello Zcaprd7 and others,

You conjure up the plausible scenario of the opponent in the arbritration buying out the company at cash, inventory and settlement plus business.

You've forgotten the property, plant and equipment. As you may remember, this was heavily written down a few years back, as the economics of production worsened. 80m euros was the original cost of the various facilities, now written down to less than 2m on the balance sheet. The plant would be worth much more than that to a profitable producer, and probably more in general terms: ie to a company not in the solar business.

[zcaprd7] 15/9/2016 16:06

Yes probably. But a profit is a profit. I still have a rather substantial holding...

[zoolook] 15/9/2016 14:00

Bought in at sub 10p so gives peace of mind as what I have left is in for free. I'm sure the logic of that is questionable

[zcaprd7] 15/9/2016 13:44

Lol. I top sliced a bit, but only because I piled in at 12p...

[zoolook] 15/9/2016 11:33

Derisked it by selling 60% of my holding. Im such a coward

[zcaprd7] 14/9/2016 12:00

Well, yes, but I think some of them have decent holdings, wouldn't mind a few director buys though? I'm not going to let them mbo on the cheap either...

[meijiman] 14/9/2016 10:16

Don't think the PV management are much concerned either -pay and perks roll on regardless...

[eezymunny] 14/9/2016 09:57

Hearing is November but the goodly arbiters need months to decide, whilst sipping G&T's in the lounge. In my next life....

[zcaprd7] 14/9/2016 09:37

Judgement is early 2017, but isn't there am evidentiary hearing slated for November? There is a chance of early settlement as well...

[zcaprd7] 14/9/2016 09:23

Cash and inventory are worth about 20p a share, so we are pretty safe at these levels...

[frazboy] 14/9/2016 09:13

Thanks gents, I had forgotten to take into account the share price at the time the announcement was made.

Steve - the value should rise very slowly, reflecting the time value of money, up to the point where the risk reward is in balance on the day of the announcement of the court hearing. In theory! But in practice, yes I would expect investors to get a bit more excitable nearer the time of the announcement and at the very least to see a rise in volatility.

[zcaprd7] 14/9/2016 09:11

Obviously they wouldn't sell for less than the settlement amount, christ sakes! Besides, the settlement amount is not guaranteed. But given they have been a customer, they might actually find the rest of the business half useful. So they'd value it at cash, inventory, settlement plus business, which is a lot more than the market is currently is doing.In fact an offer for cash, inventory and settlement, would get them the business for free...

[eezymunny] 14/9/2016 09:07

On Aug 25th they said "The judgment of the arbitral tribunal is now expected in early 2017 and while the outcome is uncertain, the value of any award if our claim is upheld could be a multiple of the Group's market capitalisation". The share price at that time was c. 12p and the market cap c. £19m. So maybe 4-5 months til D day with the possibility of a payout of perhaps £60m giving NAV of c. £90m, or 56p/share. Clearly they need to win and to be paid for that to happen. I really have no idea how likely that is, but their history of winning these cases offers some encouragement.

[steve73] 14/9/2016 08:54

fraz - I also could only read the first part. I was hoping someone had access..

remember though, that when the company made the statement, the share price was only around 10p, so we're currently around halfway to the possible valuation - if the case is successful..

I feel it's a little too soon to be rising this strongly since the timeframe for award has been kicked back 6 months or so, IIRC.

[value hound] 14/9/2016 08:30

The article looks like a long-winded way of saying it's priced around NTAV with anything up to 4 x more to come if the case is successful.

[frazboy] 14/9/2016 08:27

Zcaprd - presumably the board wouldn't sell out to the contract holder for less than the settlement sum (adjusted for all the other financial pluses/minuses) so that's not an issue

Steve73 - what did the article say (I can't read it) the two risks were? The risks I can think of are that i) they may lose the case ii) the loser may go bankrupt iii) the company is currently loss making so the longer this drags on the lower the payout iv) Pvcs are on the receiving end of a similar contract for supply of material. I think i) is unlikely, I'm not sure about ii) and iii) just reduces the ultimate payout, and iv) is a bit of an unknown but if it was very material the board should have said so

[steve73] 14/9/2016 05:59

Another "professor" Glen Arnold piece on ADVFN... I'll try to find the link again.

edit... here..

[spob] 14/9/2016 05:28

They can try

[zcaprd7] 13/9/2016 13:48

Anyway. If the settlement is multiples of the market cap, wouldn't it be better for the defendant in the case to just buy crystalox?

[zcaprd7] 13/9/2016 13:46

And again, some news leaking out. Usually a tight ship this lot though?

[zcaprd7] 12/9/2016 10:27

Nice move, on what seems to be an average day, any news?

[zcaprd7] 09/9/2016 15:59

Yes. I was just about to correct that. Stupid SwiftKey, when are Microsoft going to sort it out...