Purplebricks Share Discussion Threads

[hillofwad] 08/12/2016 17:12

It doesnt have to work like that -they can work in conjunction with their existing agents fee sharing with a tariff of fees dependent on service requires The seller gets the best of both worlds-a real local expert and for the agent exposed to more sellers

[saltaire111] 08/12/2016 16:29

Not a chance would Rightmove get into the business of selling houses. Their customer base would kill them. If a disrupter kills off

As I say, it might not be PB who pulls this off but in my view it will happen.

[hillofwad] 08/12/2016 14:58

They certainly have shaken things up and thats great I dont think their reliance on cheapness alone is enough Many complaints about their front of house,poor communications their conveyancing Their technology is no longer cutting edge and the industry is responding You mention Rightmove they could easily adopt a similar offer and apeal to the public direct They dont have to recruit any experts they already have them their existing client base Cant see the agents complaining as it gets a foot into the door and the chance face to afce to sell addon services

One of the main gripes I have is that one of theefounders has already disappeared into the sunset cashing in his chips and the other has trousered enough even if it falls flat on its face -a bit like Bricks who take the money before the result

[saltaire111] 08/12/2016 14:22

Hill, re the issues you mention about wall-tie failure etc. Well that's what the property survey does. This is my point, really, and this is where there's an opportunity for a dominant disrupter - it might not be PB, it might be someone else. But I think they're potentially the Rightmove of the estate agency World and that's why I've backed them with a modest investment.

Another area ripe for disruption is the legal services arena where technology is coming on to the point where basic legal services can be automated. Someone's going to score big in that market at some point.

Salty

[hillofwad] 08/12/2016 12:46

Prewar


Great idea and the hybrid formula will be very much the order of the day I just dont think Bricks is the company that is going to leap ahead of its rivals as envisaged I dont see any individual directors as big drivers I dont believe the bullish forecasts by Hardman will be reached and that very shortly they will have little money left I think somebody else will come up with a better offer and develop the idea more with more bellsthan whistles

I dont think their setup is very cutting edge -all in the window nothing in the shop ( A bit like an estate agents! ) The chat with Head Office is a classic example she couldnt even answer a few basic questions

You dont seem to think that sales growth stopped in September as important?

[prewar] 08/12/2016 12:05

Salty

You'll never convince Hill he was brainwashed at EA school, shortly after free issue of slip on shoes and white socks.

[hillofwad] 08/12/2016 09:47

I dont think they would be very happy to think thats how their offer is perceived Can an administative service identify wall tie failure development potential track unrelated proeprty deals down the line which affect value know Mrs Jones a special purchaser wants to move into Acacia Avenue as her daughter wanst to go to the school

If you think Bricks offer an exemplar admin service-think again Just read that conversation with Head Office?

[saltaire111] 08/12/2016 09:37

Surely estate agents provide little more than an administrative service. And technology renders those services redundant. That's where we're heading, aren't we?

PB is a step towards the inevitable demise of the traditional estate agency model. That's why I think there's an opportunity for investors.

Salty

[hillofwad] 08/12/2016 07:36

Complications often become evident before Heads Of Terms are submitted to solictors . Most buyers and sellers prefer not to use their solicitors as an expensive postbox .Agents will be dealing with any property defects,inventory planning issues ,mortgages valuations and more importanly monitoring the chain . All these skillsets available in a standard estate agents office

"Housing supply is continuing to dwindle and a slow start to next year is expected due to lack of stock, the RICS said this morning."


The industry body has announced stock dwindling as evidenced by Bricks instructions in the last couple of months so its difficut how they can turn aporfit in H2 unless they drastically reduce their advertiisng spend

Today they have 9088 instructions .Its in freefall

[saltaire111] 07/12/2016 22:28

Hill, the complicated elements of a property transaction are handled by the solicitors, usually appallingly badly, but they are dealt with by the lawyers not the agents. The agents like to think they're professionals but there's a lot of smoke and mirrors involved. They do nothing much else then bring the buyer and seller together - and technology's rendering them redundant.

[wollomolloo] 07/12/2016 21:21

Whilst i don't doubt PURP has a viable business i can't see beyond the current Mcap of £350M.

£30M of cash, reducing to £20M after ramping up Auss operations and little to no profit this FY. PURP themselves have already stated profits will suffer in the near term, as per interims:

"We will make further strategic investments in marketing during the early part of the busier spring market and whilst this may have an impact on short term levels of profitability, the Board believes that it will strengthen our growth and have a positive influence on the remainder of the 2017 calendar year"

So you're paying for potential profits at least 18 months out for a business that has no actual IP, is easy to copy, doesn't command any customer loyalty and is at risk of existing/new estate agents simply dropping their fees.

I'd be happy to pay for the privilege of future profits and growth, but £300M over assets and two years off any profits seems extremely rich.

Happy to be proved wrong, good luck to holders.

Wollo

[hillofwad] 07/12/2016 19:24

"Outgunning their competition" in what respect Profit ? Revenue ? sales conversions? Until the summer growth was rapid with the recruitment of more LPEs throughout the UK

Despite increasing the number of LPE,s since the summer the wheels have fallen off and growth has shuddered to a halt .Likely to be fewer instructions in December and January too There is nothing to indicate yet the dominance you talk of

Agents arent going to sit back and rollover.Many have unique skillsets and deals arent always simple Many agents agree performance fees Basic fee topped up by an agreed overage over acertain amount which holds a lot of appeal to sellers

I think you are labouring under a miusnderstanding that Bricks model is unique

[saltaire111] 07/12/2016 17:16

Mr Champion, it was a similar situation in the early days with Rightmove. There were tens of portals, fish4homes, homefinder, homehunter etc. all trying to do the same thing. But Rightmove's technology was the best and their branding worked. It's very similar with PB - they're out gunning their competition and should be dominant within the next couple of years.

Salty

[opodio] 07/12/2016 07:07

It’s worth remembering that this business, which was only launched a couple of years ago, is valued at approximately £360m and so far hasn’t made a bean.

[hillofwad] 07/12/2016 05:43

Hutch

Dont think Feb/March April will turbo sufficentally to pick up the fallback instructions in the 3 months . November and Ist week of December already way down and unless they start increasing the fees/addon sI can see Uk slipping back into

DT 1010Trend indicates that it might be alittle early yet to attempt a short although every likleihoodthey might usethis spike for acash call which of course will sned it back south again

I feel Bricks have reached a tipping point I will be watching their instruction rate closely over the next couple of months

[hutch_pod] 06/12/2016 21:25

Y/e 30 April..

[saltaire111] 06/12/2016 21:15

Hang in a minute.. are they working to financial calendar year? I.e. April to March or are they on Jan to Dec year?

Salty

[hutch_pod] 06/12/2016 20:43

I saw that H1 was ahead of expectations (per stockmarketwire) so perhaps some room to play with, and hence can still be on track for full year. Presumably H2 will be defined by the Spring trading..

[dt1010] 06/12/2016 19:19

Up 45% in a couple of days.

Great opportunity to sell and go short ;)

[hillofwad] 06/12/2016 15:57

Yes Bricks isnt unique Incredible share price response to the "results" and could be an opportune time for a cash call. If they are going to rollout the mat in Oz that will require some funds and also possibly buy in one of the listed leting agents and really take the market by storm -both od which would probably chew whats left in the kitty

[saltaire111] 06/12/2016 15:04

Hill - I can't see a reference to the 44000 instructions target in the placing documentation. But I take your word for it. Given the Brexit situation, i guess the market as a whole is likely to miss?

Salty

[ny boy] 06/12/2016 14:33

Shame they came up with such a naff name

[hillofwad] 06/12/2016 12:05

The forecast for this year was 44,000 instructions which formed part of their placing document They are well short