Punch Taverns Share Discussion Threads

[timbo003] 03/11/2010 12:53

Toxic taverns get a mention on todays ftalphaville, not nice (I don't hold)



NH Before I shoot off

NH very interesting note out of Seymoure Pierce today

NH on the Toxic Pub company

NH and things seem to be getting bleaker

NH and bleaker every day

Punch Taverns PLC (PUB:LSE): Last: 68.50, down 0.55 (-0.80%), High: 71.85, Low: 68.20, Volume: 706.75k

BE Rollo at MOST reckons it might be drilled down to 5p.

BE Can it get worse than that?

NH well Seymour have a fresh angle

NH apparently

NH some of the toxic debt

NH was wrapped by Ambac

NH which is facing bankruptcy

NH the question is

NH what does that mean for the Toxic Pub Co

NH here's Seymour's early thoughts

NH Reports on Ambac in yesterday's financial press claimed that the US bond insurer had stated on Monday that it might have to file for bankruptcy. Better known for insuring US municipalities's debt so that the latter could achieve higher credit ratings, Ambac insured a substantial proportion of the higher rated debt within Punch Taverns' securitizations, making it a form of 'trustee' over the top of the bond structures. The article in the FT yesterday (p.21) said that Ambac "...had branched out into structured finance in search of higher profits than were available in their traditional business of insuring municipal debts". In the case of Punch Taverns, as one of the structured finance vehicles insured by Ambac, it is a rare instance of the 'sub-prime' disease spreading from this side of the Atlantic to the other.
NH The implication of the (potential) bankruptcy of Ambac is unclear but could be material for stakeholders in Punch Taverns. It may be that the responsibility of Ambac as insurer passes to another body which is more active in protecting its interests. It may be that the insurance simply disappears and that the immediate result is the downgrading of the underlying Punch debt by rating agencies. This will precipitate the discussion between debt representatives and other (esp. Equity) representatives. What is the likely result of this? Either (1) Debt holders demand additional equity injection to prevent longer term default probability or (2) Debt holders agree on some form of 'haircut', or, as per 2009, sell out at a significant discount

BE Wow. Just wow.

NH The Doomed Pub Company

NH what was the new CEO thinking of

NH taking on this job

NH what did buffett say about good managements and bad businesses

BE One of the ROTR said yesterday that administration looked the best course of action for Toxic Taverns. I'm increasingly minded to agree.

NH indeed

[jimbob] 16/10/2010 12:09

article in Questor

[swaganeer] 15/10/2010 07:02

Yep, bottoms up!

[desperate dan] 14/10/2010 20:59

I would never have thought that PUB would have been a candidate for another short position at circa 75.0p - but it certainly appears to be that way.

[mroalan] 14/10/2010 17:54

Lord,the cheap Ruddles @ £1 29 in JDW is very good value and its not bad as a stand by ! The brains SA gold is the one though, @£1 80.edit on special offer at the mo for £1 50

[careful] 14/10/2010 17:19

this will prob be ok long term but with the disposals it will take time.
the new boss seems serious abbout building a quality pub group of about 5000 pubs with less debt.

still a huge operation but it will probably work and the cap will be well north of todays price.

in the meantime the shorters will have fun.

[larsson2] 13/10/2010 11:14

Blimey I have been watching this over a few weeks and tempted to get in however for once I refrained and since Monday just gone when the share price was 91p the Interim has made me avoid this share even more. No dividend and profits in doubt for the short term mid term has finally made me avoid PUB (once a dear friend providing nice profits when I dipped in) but now 60p looks a poss and next year will I feel be a struggle. Shame.

[jazza] 12/10/2010 23:20

lol, he's not in York, jeffian :p

[jeffian] 12/10/2010 23:16

I take it you live somewhere North of Watford, sB?!

8-)

[sumo barry] 12/10/2010 22:21

With George Osborne's rumoured massive budget cuts due to be announced soon (next couple of weeks) I cant help but think that the turn over of all the pub companies is going to drop - especially those catering for less well off (i.e. those on benefits).

Ever been to the pub in the afternoon / daytime through the week and see alot of people of working age on an all day session - every day? Well I have and cant help think they dont look like millionaires - rather its my tax money that is paying for their beer (through their benefits).

If George Osborne lets rip with the rumoured cuts then the pubs turnovers will be hit hard.

[careful] 12/10/2010 10:09

i thought these results were ok.
a basic eps of 14.4p was healthy enough.
net assets of 229 after non cash writdowns.
it is bound to be messy when making disposals but these look worth 100p+.
lots of work to do but things look ok.

[lord c.] 12/10/2010 08:36

We all know next year is going to be difficult for all of us.
Selling a couple of thousand pubs will not be easy in a falling market. An improvement in trading their best chance. The whole pub market is changing to being food led (local produce very important) and of course local brews. Fewer and fewer customers want national brands these days.
They cannot compete with Wetherspoons on price so they have to open new markets- selling local beers would bring me back - Wetherspoons can keep their cheap Ruddles.

[crosswire] 11/10/2010 11:54

After the bookies we move on to the pub and a preview of the final results from Punch Taverns, the first set of figures released under the helmsmanship of new boss Ian Dyson.

The heavily indebted pubs group raised full year profits guidance back in August after trading improved in the final quarter of the company's fiscal year. Like for like sales in the 12 weeks to mid-August were up 2.6% year on year.

Market consensus is for profit before tax of £131m on sales of £1,274m.

The company recently hosted a "meet the new chief executive officer" day for investment analysts and clearly left a favourable impression on KBC Peel Hunt.

"There is a positive spirit in this company that is tangible, and this was also in evidence at the analysts' trip around the managed estate three weeks ago, which focused on the value of the reinvestment process," the broker said.

"What has been achieved is remarkable. Punch's securitised tenancies could be allowed to default, and there is still value in the managed pubs less relevant debt, plus cash that has accumulated at the parent company. We will be looking at our valuations as this approach suggests value could be significantly higher than the existing 85p share price," it added.

[crosswire] 04/10/2010 11:07

ETI buy to 150p

[careful] 24/8/2010 17:11

up 9% in a terrible market today and no comment.
this is a dead thread.
i would have guessed that PUB's huge asset base, massive turnover and high historical price (over £12) would provoke some interest.


no discussion after todays dramatic price action.
strange.

[careful] 24/8/2010 12:06

a better trading statement.
net debt 3.1bn against assets of 6bn+ looks more manageable and will get better.
the share well up today in a bad market.

[careful] 20/8/2010 15:36

MAB has just sold 333 pubs for 373m.
over 1 million each.
PUB are capitalized at just 490m, with over 6000 pubs.

What if MAB bght the whole company out for about 1bn.
A huge potential and synergies.

[onehanded] 27/7/2010 21:19

£1 my target.

[jeffian] 22/7/2010 12:09

Really? Cashtraps, no divs an'all? At least ETI can choose whether to pay a div or not!

[jeffian] 22/7/2010 09:51

Which one? I'm not a particular fan of Punch (tho I do have a few); I was just pointing out that the share price would have been reacting to the ETI statement.

[onehanded] 21/7/2010 12:54

I see one of the largest fund holders have this at a break up value of £1.28, well they would. Yet shows must be some value in them.

[jeffian] 21/7/2010 11:35

Yes, that was a question which came up at the Analysts' Q&A session after the IMS and it's probably true that the average is flattered by disposals to a small extent. Howver, the point was that the figure was held at 2%, whereas it has been declining for nearly 2 years, and that is for year-to-date which actually represents flat income in Q3 which they hope to replicate in Q4, which would in effect represent an improvement in trade.