Punch Taverns Share Discussion Threads

[jeffian] 21/7/2010 09:56

It would have been boosted yesterday by quite a reasonable trading update from Enterprise Inns which confirmed 2 key supports for these companies -
1) trade in the tenanted estate seems to be stabilising after nearly 2 years of falls and
2) sales of significant numbers of pubs at above Book Value underpins NAV and suggests no further write-downs.

[careful] 20/7/2010 16:39

i should do more research.

[jeffian] 20/7/2010 16:33

Well, you clearly know a lot about him........





(.....except his name!)

[careful] 20/7/2010 16:05

punch being this cheap always baffles me.

cap to asset ratio.
forward profit and pe.
positive cash flow.
t/o 1.44bn.

the debt is manageable now, mostly long term.
this would still be cheap if it doubled in price.

[gdasinv2] 06/7/2010 08:30

3.2Billion Debt.....dragging....will fall like a stone...with 6.7% interest paying on debt...huge...shorted by one hedge fund

[larsson2] 01/7/2010 20:55

'Pear sector' what's that? PUB results due Tuesday by the way.

[gdasinv2] 01/7/2010 16:03

so then buy pear sector like LMR.....cheap...

[gdasinv2] 01/7/2010 15:11

Dont worry bad news on way...DEBT is doubled...Mkt is nervous soon free fall 30p

[careful] 01/7/2010 12:28

current prices are tempting.
i already have some, but with a decent trading statement last time, ongoing disposals and the hot dry weather, pub may be an opportunity staring us in the face.

[crosswire] 01/7/2010 12:25

Analyst Consensus 12 Month Target Price

The 15 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Punch Taverns PLC (PUB:LSE) have a median target of 110.00, with a high estimate of 200.00 and a low estimate of 60.00. The median estimate represents a 89.66% increase from the last price of 58.00.

[nick rubens] 30/6/2010 13:15

Thanks Jeffian for the information. I see what you mean about the dividend. Perhaps there is also a cloud via property values in the balance sheet as well. It's got a low PE but if profits are going to paying bond holders interest and longer term redemptions of them then there isn't too much to get excited about for the ordinary shares I expect.

[jeffian] 30/6/2010 10:36

It's a mixed bag, Nick. They started out following the Enterprise Inns 'model' (just collect rent and a wholesale margin on tied beer sales and machine income) but they've diversified to have a significant Managed House side (i.e. where they operate the pub directly and take a retail profit) and have a stake in Matthew Clark, the drinks wholesaler.

The market fears a second banking crisis so any company with debt is being hammered. Actually, the irony is that PUB doesn't have any bank debt, having paid it off over the last few years via Rights Issue etc., and all its debt is in the form of securitised bonds which have a long-term fixed repayment profile, but when the amrket's in this mood it won't stop to think about the difference! Having said that, PUB is struggling at the trading level and investors buying for the "good value" need to understand that cash may be trapped within the securitised bonds for some time which will prevent payments of divis etc.

[nick rubens] 30/6/2010 09:38

Anyone buying/holding? can anyone help with the business model. Looks good value but do they manage their own pubs or just collect rents from leasing them? Cheers.

[crosswire] 11/6/2010 10:58

Greene King buys four more pubs from Punch Taverns Tweet this
Comments (1) Greene King has bought another four managed pubs from heavily endebted Punch Taverns, as the latter continues to trim away at its borrowings.

Punch is selling the four - two in England and two in Scotland - for £5.3m in cash. It brings the total number of pubs sold to Greene King in the past 12 months to 23 for a total consideration of £51.6m. The 23 had a book value of £52.7m and made full year pre-tax profits of £4.75m. Greene King said the pubs were trading below their potential:

These pub restaurants are highly attractive, food-led, destination sites in Aberdeen, Northampton and Nottingham, and meet the strict strategic and financial criteria set out at the time of the rights issue [in April]. We expect, following targeted capital investment and operational synergies from integration into Greene King, that these sites will return to more normalised historic trading levels.

It will convert the new pubs into its Hungry Horse and Eating Inn brands. So far it has spent £100m of the £207m cash call proceeds on 34 pubs and repaying debt. Greene King shares have edged up 1.1p to 387.9p on the news while Punch has jumped 2.7p to 64.6p. Seymour Pierce analyst Hugh-Guy Lorriman said:

Greene King advises that the underlying trading levels of these units will improve post acquisition. The four units make £0.34m of EBITDA. Greene King is suggesting that it will move them to around £0.76m of EBITDA – nearly double the level of current profits.

Greene King has a history of buying quite dear but making the acquisitions work at the level of trading improvement (n.b. acquisition of Belhaven). Today's acquisition fits this story and we are confident it will succeed in its turnaround. Greene King is an opportunistic acquirer. Punch continues to wind down and the level of profit of these units compared with where Greene King thinks they should be further backs up the negative underlying trading story in the Punch managed houses division.

Greene King has been dragged down by recent trading bad news from the like of JD Wetherspoon. It is now looking like a value play, and with some of the best returns in the industry and the strongest balance sheet of the larger players the stock is looking attractive.

[gdasinv2] 10/6/2010 09:34

I think on current mkt condition - PUB share is cheap.....Could be a takeover target anytime also still a lot of people will go PUB for a drink during worldcup.