Punch Taverns Share Discussion Threads

[crosswire] 21/4/2010 12:17

FT

Analyst Consensus 12 Month Target Price

The 17 analysts offering 12 month price targets for Punch Taverns PLC (PUB:LSE) have a median target of 115.00, with a high estimate of 200.00 and a low estimate of 70.00. The median estimate represents a 20.29% increase from the last price of 95.60.

[larsson2] 21/4/2010 11:04

Its his 'texting' short name. Anyway this share price looks promising but in a quandary whether to add a tad more or wait for the profit taking and results tomorrow. Either way I'll get it wrong and this share price will shoot up to £1.60.
Incredible to think this was £13 two years ago or so!

[careful] 21/4/2010 10:08

I dont wish to be picky with a fellow punch time travelling shareholder
but i think it is Obi-Wan Kenobi.

[larsson2] 21/4/2010 08:19

Looks good so far... c'mon OB1 make it go into orbit please!

[careful] 21/4/2010 08:17

this will test my instinct.
i feel this week will be really good for this share.
trust in the force luke.etc.

[crosswire] 21/4/2010 08:13

+100p by eod

[crosswire] 20/4/2010 14:58

110p to 120p by Friday..with a good outlook statement

[larsson2] 20/4/2010 14:34

I hope so as well careful. Just stuck at 95p tho' has shot up from 79p'sh recently so we could see profit taking when results declared particularly if they are flat. Should however at some point rise substantially like last year particularly with WC approaching fast...one would hope.

[careful] 20/4/2010 13:24

punch are capitalized at 610m right now.
eps 2007 was 84.4p.(pre tax 281.7m)
eps 2009 was 36.1p.(pre tax 160.4m)

a good result this week could see a huge gain.
recent write down of assets still leave a high book value.

i have made a few disposals this last few weeks.
but not punch.
i have high hopes for this share.
looking forward to thursday.
a no brainer at below £1.

[georavello] 20/4/2010 13:04

Hopefully punch this past a £1 on Thursday

[kibes] 15/4/2010 18:58

obanite - re your post 1145 which is interesting. But are you being unduly pessimistic? At the top as you say the shares reached 1300p and people were keen enough to buy them at that level. Then we hit a recession and it all fell apart. But if we get a recovery won't these shares recover as well? The business model must have been working when they were at 1300p, so why can't it work again? Has something terminal happened in the meantime?

[careful] 15/4/2010 15:52

This is looking good.
Sometimes removing the chief is a tonic.
No obligations to persue dead strategies, no baggage.
A fresh start.

[georavello] 13/4/2010 12:17

Took its time but eventually got to 90p

[obanite] 31/3/2010 01:13

jazza
closures run at four or five per day at present and will probably continue at this rate for a few years yet.
Many of the closures, but not all, represents a family losing their home and livelyhood after a failed attempt to live the dream and based on the PubCos "low cost entry into the market" model.
Low cost entry maybe - but low cost exit - no way the price to leave is all you have.
Pub and Eti are both massive examples of a horrid business model that is based on poorly framed regulation aimed at eliminating monopolistic practices by brewers - who at least actually made something - beer - and ran pubs to sell their product, the great british pub was too important to allow this it seems.

So the government legislated that brewers could no longer own many pubs. This created Pubcos who are basically Property companies with a twist - they have monopoly pricing rights to sell beer through their properties, they do not make anything, not even beer, so, obviously, this is better somehow.

The opportunity created by poor regulation resulted in massive financial engineering and the current toxic debt etc.. Punch have traded at £13 but are now less than £1 and are unlikely (imho) ever to be more than a shrivelled husk blowing about the market till something comes up to sort it out and M&A is highly unlikely as no one will pay even £1 to buy the rights to repay £3 or 4 Billion in debt.

That the market got burned to the tune of £326 Mil last june with almost nowt to show for it now suggests that from now till something "happens" these shares have limited value, if any, possibly a daytrade opportunity but think of it as russian roulette. Every punt you take could pay off but one day the chamber will be loaded and it will blow you away - completely.

Trouble is that any upside is strictly limited so it is hard to figure why one would bother.

[jazza] 30/3/2010 22:19

so how many pubs are closing each week currently?

supply & demand....demand is shrinking but I'd think supply is shrinking faster.

Extrapolating in a straight line wrt attrition rates, NAV and value in use is dangerous IMHO.

I don't hold.

:-)

[desperate dan] 30/3/2010 22:12

obanite - truly excellent post, imho !

[obanite] 30/3/2010 21:49

That is if you believe the tangible NAV.
Estate Valuation in Punch is Based on "Value in Use" which is the NPV of future profits assuming that rents increase every 5 years and Leaseholders can continue to pay highly inflated prices for beer which must be purchased through the tie.
And that the block exemption that permits the tie is allowed to continue forver etc..
If there is any doubt about any of this then the estate valuation instantly becomes nearer "Market Value" which is basically a factor based on the profitability of the outlet.
By valuing Punch at 45% of the Book Nav based on "Value in use" the market is signalling that it does not necessarily believe in this valuation approach.

Considering the Billion or so that Punch have already written off the estate in recent years and the continuing atrition in the sector I wonder if 55% discount is anything like enough.

Given the debt position and the state of the sector I would suspect that the bondholders will soon have to step in to protect themselves - this will eliminate pretty much all shareholder value.

There must be more interesting opportunities around with less inherent and inponderable risks.

[timbo003] 30/3/2010 12:21

Hi Jeffian

See comments on Thorleys departure from Toxic Taverns on today's FT alphaville



(I'm still just watching, for now)

[jeffian] 30/3/2010 11:16

Thorley's departure doesn't seem to have caused any waves.

[aspers] 24/3/2010 08:51

Think this may get hammered later as the tax on drinks is increased....thats my view so waiting to get back in below 80p!! :-)