Providence Resources Share Discussion Threads

[wardy333] 08/8/2017 14:13

I like a gamble and like people say you have to be in it to win it, the company would not be drilling if there was not some chance of success in Drombeg, the upper drill never had a decent seal, its possible 30/70 in favour of a duster who knows, could be 50/50.

[papillon] 08/8/2017 14:08

"Drombeg will succeed of that I'm sure the seal is intact so should flow."

Who knows? Hope springs eternal in wardy's view! However there is a less than 50% chance (10-15% chance?) you could be right, wardy333, but don't be tempted to bet your house, or life savings, on it! ATB.

[wardy333] 08/8/2017 13:59

Sellers are killing the stock currently, Drombeg will succeed of that I'm sure the seal is intact so should flow.

[seangwhite] 08/8/2017 13:49

Ceph your comments on TOR are not invalid but ignore the Barryroe farm out saga which is a bit like a tragic russian novel in that it takes a long time (to read) and leaves one more than a bit downhearted.

[neo26] 08/8/2017 13:49

Itsriskythat We will know soon, like others are mentioning it worth noting drombeg is our primary target.Drombeg was identified on the 2d data also, whereas druid was nowhere to be seen.....

[itsriskythat] 08/8/2017 13:38

Diablo ridge spilled oil across both traps or it fed oil into the lower trap that might then have fed the upper trap. Different models? Which is it?

[calder27] 08/8/2017 13:22

Aquifers generally provide pressure support to the reservoir, but are not a cause of overpressure. In fact the more extensive the aquifer, the less likely to be overpressured a reservoir is.

As the compartment needs to be sealed to contain the overpressure, it limits the size that the aquifer can be to the size of the compartment. Overpressure is often a localised effect.

[greyingsurfer] 08/8/2017 13:18

TOR will either be a hero or a villain when he announces results of Drombeg drillOnly amongst those who don't understand oil exploration. For everyone else he'll just be the CEO of an e&p that drilled an explo well, the majority of which fail.Peter

[ngms27] 08/8/2017 13:08

There can also be an aquifer...

[langster] 08/8/2017 12:56

Remember, Dromberg is thought to be overpressured which wasn't the case with Druid.

Here is a post by "Pennypusher" from another place discussing the possible causes of overpressurisation.

We're not pronouncing Drom dead yet!

___________________________________________________________________________________

There's a few mechanisms really, but one of the key things is that a formation needs to be a sealed compartment before it can be overpressured, otherwise the pressure would just escape into neighbouring formations.

Pressure increases as you go deeper, so when a reservoir is described as 'overpressured' it means it is higher than the expected 'normal' pressure for that depth (calculated using the depth of formation & density of water).

The primary cause for this is disequilibrium compaction, which means that the formation is sealed before experiencing rapid burial and compaction, which reduces the pore volume without allowing any of the fluid volume to escape, resulting in a pressure increase. Other causes can be hydrocarbon generation (however this is unlikely considering Drombeg is not considered to be the source here) or tectonic processes causing compression of the compartment due to an increase in horizontal stress. Tectonic processes would also result in faulting which would help to seal the compartment laterally.

It all depends on the timing of geological events really, but I don't know enough about the geology of the Porcupine basin to comment specifically on that.

[neo26] 08/8/2017 12:34

He's a villain at the moment.. :-)

[hermana3] 08/8/2017 12:25

Cep,Good post. We are not exactly at a boom or bust scenario here but TOR will either be a hero or a villain when he announces results of Drombeg drill. If he could miraculously pull a party into Barryroe he would cushion the blow of Drombeg result!

[neo26] 08/8/2017 12:24

I agree the company is in a very good position and this new business model of farming out the licenses and having an almost free carry on the drill makes sense.I will give credit to TOR for signing an first option deal with total for druid and drombeg.Total were not stupid they knew the risk and they knew the potential of the atlantic highway. Cairn and Total won't hang about they will continue to look for oil, they might want to move fast on Avalon especially as total are operator..

[neo26] 08/8/2017 12:16

Damn, how many here work in the North sea?It's not that simple that it moved from the bottom and moved to the top. The diablo ridge filled druid and drombeg through the traps thats what the data interpreted.Like an artery providing blood to different muscles, this hypothesis of druid being filled didn't happen, there's a very good chance it didn't fill drombeg also.Imho

[neo26] 08/8/2017 12:06

I think the guy is bad luck, after the recent bad news I think it will be time for him to step aside.Imho

[greyingsurfer] 08/8/2017 11:56

Once TOR is out we will be ok..

Why on earth would anyone who is so negative about senior management invest in a company?

Peter

[harrissen] 08/8/2017 11:55

calder27, thanks for clarifying what I attempted to explain in an earlier post.

[calder27] 08/8/2017 11:32

It's perfectly feasible that there are sealing formations between Druid and Drombeg which have prevented hydrocarbons from reaching Druid. Druid being dry does not automatically mean that Drombeg will be dry.

It is VERY common (occurs in >75% of fields I work on in the North Sea) that wells penetrate water bearing reservoirs before reaching the oil/gas bearing reservoirs due to sealing formations preventing any escape of HCs.

Of course it is possible that Drombeg is also not charged, but it is not the guarantee that people are suggesting or that the shareprice is reflecting.

[papillon] 08/8/2017 11:24

The following posts are from 4.5 years ago. They show that PVR/Barryroe takeover talk is nothing new! “The thing that hath been, it is that which shall be; and that which is done is that which shall be done: and there is no new thing under the sun.”

MONMAN24 Feb '13 - 08:30 - 20001 of 50453 0 0
Giant Petronas eyes a €600m bid for Providence Resources


Billy_Buffin24 Feb '13 - 08:38 - 20002 of 50453 0 0
Good spot!

That's around £8 a share?

Caveat_Emptor24 Feb '13 - 08:53 - 20005 of 50453 0 0
Correction....

64m shares into E 600m is 9.37 Euros

Billy_Buffin24 Feb '13 - 08:54 - 20006 of 50453 0 0
Herm - re family, let's hope not. However if a bid it adds some weight to TOR's claims re Barryroe.

Mark Knopfler24 Feb '13 - 09:38 - 20013 of 50453 0 0
Whilst that fair value sounds appealing Hermana, do you really think thats attainable ?

Any buyer needs to feel they are getting a bargain, so wouldnt want to pay 'fair value'.

I agree £8 is way too low though.

>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>

PS. I have hermana3 on filter so I can't see his posts. I should imagine his "fair value" back then in early 2013 was some ridiculously high figure!

[ride daice] 08/8/2017 11:21

Cephalosaurus,

Mainly all the stuff that might have happened between the Cretaceous and Paleocene.

[neo26] 08/8/2017 11:08

TalkmanTell us something new.Once TOR is out we will be ok..

[cephalosaurus] 08/8/2017 11:07

Ride, any views on why would be appreciated?
Thanks

[talkman2] 08/8/2017 11:02

I would . Dromberg is going to be a dud.

[stockriser] 08/8/2017 11:01

I've seen CEO's turn oil into water after announcing a gusher, so there's even hope for Druid yet - OK perhaps that's a bit too enthusiastic/optimistic ..lol