Probability Share Discussion Threads

[rolo7] 28/4/2008 20:53

news today that deutshe bank was behind the share buying last week, must be a good sign that a bank is buying this stock. doowl agree that 300k is a good target for 2008 and break even for 2007 would be good maybe a small profit. one to watch here I think, its interesting that pbty are working with apple on iphone games/iphones are £100 cheaper at the moment also.

[doowle] 24/4/2008 13:19

I think there's profit taking going on.

To be honest they'll be lucky to make £300k in the year and are valued at £12m. PE of 40.

According to the last broker note, they would only break even this year. Even if they beat estimates, that's not a lot of money.

It's also worth noting that I just got given free money by them to gamble, which I doubled and now would like paid out. User growth by giving away free money isn't user growth. Be very careful how those stats are computed...

[rolo7] 24/4/2008 11:45

myoure1 agree that there are some straight going on in trading pbty they look like buys and I guess an order was being filled as the price has been lowed the last 3 days after goof kpi results, might be directors buys as we are going into a closed trading period before results in july, anyone else have any ideas?

[myoure1] 24/4/2008 10:09

What is going on here? Digital look shows two large purchases for £1,676,000 at 9.09 this morning yet the share price drops 4.5p? Anyone shed any light on why we are seeing a drop, there were no trades reported yesterday and it dropped 2p then as well.

[rolo7] 22/4/2008 19:29

impressive results net revenue in Q4 equal almost net revenue in 1st half of 07, pbty is growing fast is now cash generative (profitable in Q3! and Q4?), results out in july but you can make out what they will be by the quarters updates. a long way to go for this share price.

[paddyberry] 22/4/2008 15:46

It was the beginning of July last yr, so thats an indication, altho thats no guarantee re this yrs!
The fact that they update quarterly is reassuring for me. Next KPIs due mid July, again going on previous 1/4s!

[myoure1] 22/4/2008 11:19

Does anyone know when the annual accounts are due to be released?

[paddyberry] 22/4/2008 09:43

I like the net cash 2.8m as opposed to 1.0m 3 months ago

[sixpintsid] 17/4/2008 12:06

Buy Probability at 64p
An exclusive tip from Scarlett Moore of Sharecrazy's Supermarket
12 April 2008


This week I've gone for an exiting technology stock, one which has seen its share price rise rapidly over the past few weeks but still looks like a good bet in the long term. The company is Probability PLC (PBTY), which is a provider of gambling services on mobile phones. The market for mobile gaming is forecast to rapidly expand over the next few years. Research suggests that, boosted by improving technology and an increasing acceptance of mobile phones as a form of entertainment, more than 460 million mobile phone users are expected to download games by 2009, more than a double the current number. With first mover advantage Probability looks well placed to take advantage of that growth.

Through its flagship brand, Lady Luck's, Probability offers a range of games in the two areas of casino games; which include roulette, blackjack and video poker, and so called 'softer' games which include bingo and virtual slot machines. The company also has several white label deals with companies including Orange, News International and Blue Square, where it typically earns money on a revenue sharing basis.

The company recently announced a trading statement reporting on the quarter from 1st October to 31st December 2007. Over the period net gaming revenues were up by 38% to £930,198, with a net operating profit being reported for the first time. 47,373 new customers registered during the quarter, raising total numbers to 276,275, an increase of 22%. The customer acquisition rate was 45% greater than in the three months to 30th September. Over the festive season trading was exceptionally strong with 30% more cash being deposited to customers gambling accounts in December than in November. The 23rd of December 2007 was the company's busiest day to date, with up to 9.5 bets placed per second. At over £1 million the company's cash reserves remain strong.

In terms of the competition Probability has first mover advantage in that it has a tried and tested offering which is proven to work. With many gambling operators wanting to get into the market this provides an opportunity for Probability to sign further white label deals. The complex technology needed to allow games to work on the wide range of mobile phones in the market provides a barrier to entry which means that would be competitors would find it cheaper to buy Probability's services than to start from scratch.

In the year to 31st March 2008 Probability is forecast to more than double revenues to £2.7 million and post a loss at the pre-tax level of £0.2 million. In 2009, as the company benefits from recently signed white label deals, as well as an increasing customer base, it is forecast to post maiden earnings of 3.3p per share. In the short term we can these figures being increased significantly as there is the potential for new white label deals to be signed. In 2010 I can see earnings rising to at least 5p. That rates the shares at around 13 times earnings which, I think, considering the long-term prospects and opportunities for further white label deals, looks good value. Buy.

Key Data

EPIC: PBTY
Market: AIM
Spread: 63-65p (3.07%)

[rambutan2] 16/3/2008 21:40

Reported in Sunday Times today that the competition are doing a £2.6m fundraising...

[yngwie] 10/3/2008 21:36

holding up well i dont know weather to sell and buy them back on a bit of a dip.mmmmmmmmmm

[rambutan2] 29/2/2008 11:40

a brief mention in Rank's (horrible) prelims out today...

Blue Square

During 2007, Blue Square continued to extend its customer reach through
agreements with Virgin Media (to offer Blue Square sports betting and bingo to
Virgin's broadband internet customers) and Probability Games (to provide mobile phone versions of popular casino games).

[cockneyrebel] 22/2/2008 11:48

Tipped in IC today - has made a delightful breakout too.

CR

[cimbom] 21/2/2008 12:01

Good to see that these are moving up nicely.Still got a long way to go though.

[bigbigdave] 20/2/2008 09:49

Thats some breakout.
Only got a few of these but thinking about more.

[paved] 15/2/2008 09:32

Probability - momentum continues to build
13-Feb-2008
Highlights include net gaming revenues up 38% on the previous quarter to £0.93 million, and the company added 47,373 new customers bringing the grand total to 276,275 customers

[cockneyrebel] 11/2/2008 15:50

Cheers Rolo - next leg up starting imo.

CR

[rolo7] 10/2/2008 16:56

nice article

[cockneyrebel] 29/1/2008 13:12

Punters gone to sleep here - they'll all be chasing it when it moves up again imo.

Hard to buy then.

CR