Probability Share Discussion Threads

[brownie69] 15/10/2010 20:13

From Gaming Intelligence newsletter. Good read across.

"In response to increasing consumer demand for mobile betting options, Irish betting and gaming operator Paddy Power has launched a new App for Android mobile customers, following a 287 per cent jump in mobile turnover during the first half of 2010. (read more)"

[guidfarr] 14/10/2010 18:04

I do agree about the taking off - iPhones and Android are the future and market sentiment is strongly on our side now. Now all PBTY needs to do is to start rolling their games to other bookies apart from Paddy - that is likely to spike up the price! I think Bluesq also uses their games although I'm not 100%? Maybe someone could confirm?

[rambutan2] 14/10/2010 15:26

guidfarr, who was the spec buy from? thanks.

It's looking more and more like PBTY has (finally) hit take off, and now is a good time to be filled up, strapped in and ready to enjoy the journey over the next few years.

[guidfarr] 14/10/2010 10:46

Probability sees spike in iPhone income 14/10/2010

James Bennett
Probability sees spike in iPhone income

AIM-listed mobile gambling specialist Probability has seen a sharp rise in income from its iPhone products and has announced it will move operations from Alderney to Gibraltar "as soon as is practicable" after being awarded the first remote gambling licence there for more than two years.
In a trading update released this morning it described its newly launched Touch Casino product for the iPhone as the "most significant single contributor of new revenues". In September iPhone customers represented 12.3% of all cash deposits, less than three months after the company launched the service in July this year.

Probability has also released a free to download Android App this month. It said it believed Android devices present a marketing opportunity which could be "greater than the iPhone" in the next few years. According to a recent report from mobile industry analyst iSuppli, Android will have a 19% market share of mobile devices by 2012 compared with a forecast of 16% for Apple. It called the uptake in the first few days of launch "very encouraging".

Charles Cohen, chief executive of Probability, said: "We are seeing the benefits now of our strategic initiative started some 18 months ago now to create a long term platform for Probability.

"There remains a huge amount of opportunity for us as consumers shift their behaviour towards mobile devices such as the iPhone, Android and tablets such as the iPad and Blackberry's recently announced PlayBook. You are going to see Probability making a strong play into all of these devices and markets."

Total cash deposited by players into gaming accounts in September was 27.1% higher than April 2010, the company said. Total wagers placed in September were 54.9% higher than in April 2010, while the total number of players in September was 11.2% higher than in April this year.

Following the conclusion of its technology investment programme earlier this year, the company said it was also now operating "from a lower fixed cost base" with further cost efficiencies expected now that Probability has been awarded a remote gambling licence by the government of Gibraltar, the first new licence since 2008.

Cohen called the Gibraltar licence "the icing on the cake" not just because it places the company among a "prestigious group of egaming businesses, but because it provides us with access to a skilled workforce and more efficient, competitive tax and cost regime".

There are currently 19 other companies with a remote gambling licence in Gibraltar including Ladbrokes, 888.com, PartyGaming and William Hill. The company said the move would bring both commercial benefits and "significant on-going cost savings and improved operational margins" as the business expands.

Glenn Elliott, the company's chief operating officer has relocated to Gibraltar and taken up the role of managing director of Probability (Gibraltar) Limited. Elliott has resigned his position on the board of Probability with immediate effect in order to take up this appointment.

John Anderson has also been appointed as non-executive chairman of Probability (Gibraltar) Limited. Anderson has been non-executive director of 888 Holdings since January 2007and was its chief executive for seven years. He is also chairman of the Interactive Gaming Council and a board member of the international player protection and standards organisation eCOGRA and a director of online bookmaker 10Bet as well as being chairman of Burford holdings, a privately held property investment company.

[guidfarr] 14/10/2010 10:38

Probability (PBTY, 52.0p, £11.27m), the leading mobile phone gambling specialist, reports a positive trading update to September 2010. The launch of new products, increased investment in marketing and customer retention combined with higher income from business-to-business partnerships has driven rapid revenue growth. Total cash deposited by players into their gaming accounts in September 2010 was 27.1% higher than April 2010. Total wagers placed in September 2010 were 54.9% higher than in April 2010. The total number of players in September 2010 was 11.2% higher than April 2010. The launch of the iPhone game has been successful, representing 12% of all cash deposits in less than three months. The group has already reduced the cost base. Following the award for remote gambling licence by the government of Gibraltar will achieve further efficiencies. Probability will transfer day to day operations from Alderney, where it is currently licenced, to Gibraltar as soon as is practicable. We are impressed by the group's performance. We believe the appointment of John Anderson, as the Non-Executive Chairman of Probability (Gibraltar) Limited, strengths the Board. Anderson is a Non-Executive Director of 888 Hldgs (LON:888) Holdings and was CEO of 888 for seven years. We believe the group is well positioned to offer further growth in the B2B business. The latter coupled with the explosive growth in smartphones internationally, offers Probability with huge opportunities. In our view, Probability's strategy to expand into different brands and adding new geographies will help transform the company from a UK only business. The market expects the group to deliver pre-tax profit of £0.1m with EPS of 0.6p in the current financial year. We believe new contract wins will assist share price growth. We reiterate our SPECULATIVE BUY recommendation.

[rambutan2] 14/10/2010 08:15

promising update...

The Company is pleased to announce that it is once again experiencing rapid
growth in revenues as it benefits from new products, increased investment in
marketing and customer retention, as well as higher income from
business-to-business partnerships.

* Total cash deposited by players into their gaming accounts in September
2010 was 27.1% higher than April 2010.

* Total wagers placed in September 2010 was 54.9% higher than in April 2010.

* The total number of players in September 2010 was 11.2% higher than April
2010.

The most significant single contributor of new revenues has been the "Touch
Casino" for the iPhone which launched in the middle of July 2010.

In September 2010 iPhone customers represented 12.3% of all cash deposits -
less than three months after the launch of this service in July 2010.

Following the conclusion of its technology investment programme earlier this
year, the Company is also now operating from a lower fixed cost base, with
further cost efficiencies expected to be achievable now that the Company has
been awarded a remote gambling licence by the government of Gibraltar.

The Company is also able to announce the release this month of a dedicated
Android "App" which has been accepted into the official "Android Marketplace"
(equivalent to Apple's iTunes AppStore)...

[guidfarr] 11/10/2010 18:40

TrentEndBoy - you operated netbetblog? what happened to it?

[bantam175] 10/10/2010 13:50

Could be a bid on the cards? PRTY?

Just guessing.

[guidfarr] 10/10/2010 10:38

"If you note - I called 888 a dog all the way down from over a £1. It is a still a dog."

when? I used to follow your netbetblog postings... (if you were the author)

as if.... 888 might be a dog but it is SERIOUSLY undervalued at current levels. I have more than enough holdings in pbty at the moment and this stock is very much illiquid.

search for anything on google - casino, online casino, online poker...etc what comes up first? partypoker? sportingbet? ladyluck (!!?) or 888? their bingo network keeps expanding so fast that I'm losing track of the number of licensee sites - was just launched this September.

[trentendboy] 09/10/2010 22:30

If you note - I called 888 a dog all the way down from over a £1. It is a still a dog.

PBTY on the other hand could double from here with little difficulty - 80p is very likely.

Moving funds from 888 to this would be my advice

[guidfarr] 09/10/2010 19:30

well if you believe the news the future is clearly mobile

Mobile Gaming Sector on Target to exceed $48 Billion by 2015

[the analyst] 09/10/2010 09:58

Also, I have noticed we are starting to see some major interest in companies that benefit from the transition from regular mobiles phone to smartphone technology.

Examples include BGO and MOS, which have multi-bagged over the past few weeks.

I'm thinking that once we get news of increased take-up on the iphone, android phones etc, PBTY will be another one of those shares that suddenly leaps up to new highs...

[the analyst] 09/10/2010 09:57

The thing I like here, is that we are perfectly placed for the transition to smartphone technology, which is only just the beginning

The exciting thing about the smartphone market, is that the industry is starting to see real revenue come through from them - from advertising to games, to apps and widgets. This revenue stream was simply not there a year ago

Although no numbers have yet been reported for mobile gambling, it goes without saying that the playing experience you get on a smartphone casino is completely different from an old style phone. So, we 'should' really be looking for a step change in revenues for PBTY over the next two years, imo. In fact, we may be seeing the first signs right now, so the next trading update will be really interesting

Of course, in a couple of years time, we may start to see WiMax being introduced (or similar fast mobile technology). It will be necessary with the demand for video technology, so when it arrives, it will arrive quickly and it presents a huge opportunity for companies like PBTY. Fast mobile broadband will allow for P2P games (like poker, for which there is a huge mobile demand) and far more complex casino games too, which again, should result in growth. It may even result in mobile overtaking traditional as the casino destination of choice

The main thing for PBTY is to keep ahead of competition. Reworking the software from the ground up seems to have been aimed at doing exactly that. Hopefully we see the gains from that starting to come through soon

[the analyst] 08/10/2010 23:08

I've been building a stake here over the last couple of months, but it has not been easy (to put it mildly!). It seems there are quite a few others out there trying to mop up shares.

To be honest, the limits and liquidity have been close to as bad as anything I've seen over the last 10 years on the AIM market. I was having to phone just to get 1000 shares on the offer, despite the 2000 nms. Luckily I found someone to sell me the larger size I was looking for over the last few weeks, so I am now a happy bunny

A friend of mine says he managed to get 40k at 52p today (when the offer was at 48p!), but that it has not shown up on the trades. Not doubt they will put it through as a late trade to give the impression that it was a sell.

The market makers really are that short on stock, which I am thinking must be a very good sign...

[guidfarr] 08/10/2010 17:51

-> very tempted, very tempted indeed - very tempted for what? to buy or to sell it? I'm also a heavy holder here (started buying at 30's levels). TrentEndBoy, I think you are the same one who was shorting 888? So you also operated netbetblog? I used to follow that blog with interest although I didn't agree to whatever was being said there...

for pbty - today - just 41,500 traded so the price movements don't mean much...!?

[rambutan2] 08/10/2010 15:13

Trent, I don't think it is. The backers want a serious return and are prepared to wait, or even stick in more capital.

What happened to your netbetblog?

[trentendboy] 08/10/2010 15:05

In play imo

Could be a very simple 100%

very tempted, very tempted indeed

[rambutan2] 08/10/2010 13:58

Don't think interims due until next month. Has been a bit more volume than the usual zilch this week though. I know that some sort of rns was expected to be made this autumn, although these things always slip...

[bantam175] 08/10/2010 11:00

Are figures due out?

Interest seems to be picking up. Here's hoping.

[rambutan2] 10/9/2010 00:30

Apple has relented on two of the most contentious aspects of its control of its App Store: its restriction on software converted from releases for other smartphones, and its refusal to publish the hitherto inscrutable rules governing whether a new program will make it into the store. The App Store, remember, is the only easy way to add non-Apple software to the iPhone, iPod touch and iPad...

[rambutan2] 08/9/2010 00:53

AGM is today, ( ) and we must be due a trading update.

Montreal, QC. August 18, 2010-LadyLucks, Britain's favourite mobile casino, is launching its affiliate programme using a white label version of the Income Access affiliate marketing software solution. Affiliates can earn uncapped commissions, while offering players a full suite of mobile games, including slots, blackjack, roulette, bingo and huge jackpots.

[guidfarr] 29/7/2010 14:00

"More than 80% of our growth is online, however mobile is now our second biggest channel overtaking interactive TV and our call centre. The iPhone has been massive. The ability to bet straight from our app on an iPhone has been very popular and allows players to get much closer to our content."

this is exactly what I expect with probability new iPhone product.

[guidfarr] 27/7/2010 10:43

perhaps not the glittery trading update we were expecting as they seem to have burned quite some cash - but if anything the iPhone offering is finally online and Paddy are serious about it, now they just need to get more operators on board...




Paddy Power Launches Mobile Games suite

Paddy Power has launched a whole new suite of mobile games for those looking for mobile game entertainment on the run. The Irish Bookmakers has followed the success of its new iPhone web application by releasing 10 new casino style mobile games which can be downloaded directly to customer's mobile phones.

The paddypowermobile.com site has recently been upgraded to support both betting and gaming functions for mobile users. The new games available for download include Blackjack, Roulette, Video Poker and a range of exciting multi-line slots games. They can be downloaded for free to any java enabled mobile phone.

Among the games are popular mobile games such as crazy camels, Hi-Lo, Poseidon's Kingdom, Treasure Island and Nudge 7. "We will be expanding the range of games available to our customers over the coming weeks and months and will also be integrating the games service with our extremely popular mobile sports products. Our goal is to provide a comprehensive gaming and betting user experience on our mobile platform", said James Grimes, Product Manager at Paddy Power.
"The mobile games service, which we developed with the mobile gaming and lottery provider Probability, has been created with the mobile customer in mind. We have been working on the games products for the past number of months and now we want to share it with all of our customers. Now that the World Cup is over, more and more people are looking for entertainment on their mobile phone. We always place our clients at the heart of the design process ensuring that the games appeal to their tastes," said Grimes.
"We plan to have support for our many iPhone customers in a matter of weeks. We and are also developing services for Android and other emerging mobile handset devices so that all of our www.paddypower.com mobile customers can experience our site, and can navigate easily from their handsets. The Mobile Games category promises to be a real growth area for innovation in the betting industry. Paddy Power is keen to be at the forefront of further mobile developments," said Grimes.
Ends
About Paddy Power Mobile