Probability Share Discussion Threads

[rambutan2] 16/10/2011 11:35

the deadline is 5pm tomorrow...

William Hill's potential bid for Probability is one of the first transactions that has been announced under new rules by the Takeover Panel in force since 19 September 2011. The new rules compel companies to publicise any approach by a potential purchaser that has not been unequivocally rejected.

The announcement of the preliminary talks starts an offer period for William Hill, which means that the betting company will have to announce whether it will make an formal offer for Probability by 5pm on 17 October 2011. If William Hill decides not to make a formal bid for Probability, it will be barred from a new offer for Probability for six months from the date on which it announces its intention not to make a bid.

https://www.eversheds.com/uk/home/publications/index.page?

[beeezzz] 15/10/2011 11:34

Whatever, we should hear something on Monday.

[bbluesky] 14/10/2011 18:32

Wm Hill hit new high today (since 2008). We are in Mr Cohen's hands and he is definitely one smart cookie and I suspect is more interested in the chess than the money. Worth backing whatever the outcome imv. My long shot is for a reverse take-over, can't see him retiring.

[666james] 12/10/2011 17:45

re reading some of the "news" dated 19/9 about the discussions...it seems that the 17/10 can be extented subject to the "panels" (I assume the take over panel)approval.

[666james] 12/10/2011 16:32

beeezzz well if that is what they are discussing...price to the major shareholders...that has got to be good for us (I think).But we are counting now. Good luck to all shareholders.

[beeezzz] 12/10/2011 14:18

666.......I'm not sure, they were tightening up T/O's, after the fiasco with Cadburys, whether that has come into effect I'm not sure.

I think the problem will be with major shareholders, what price they are willing to except, which maybe very different from what W/H is willing to offer, obviously there would have been discussions which PI's are not privy too.

[666james] 12/10/2011 12:47

beeezzz 470...still very quiet. Hopefully something is brewing. Can the bidder ask for an extension to the 17th does anybody know?

[guidfarr] 10/10/2011 21:40

yes i think 17th October it is - short-term whatever comes out will impact the stock price

[beeezzz] 09/10/2011 11:47

guidfarr....I think you meant Monday 17th Oct, week tomorrow then, personally I think we should hear something before next Friday.

[rambutan2] 06/10/2011 12:51

All looking good, with far too much upside to let WMH get hold of it at this stage.

[guidfarr] 06/10/2011 11:18

Probability receives Q2 revenue boost

Mobile gambling operator Probability, currently in early stage takeover talks with William Hill, saw second quarter revenues rise 38% compared to last year, it announced to the London Stock Exchange this morning.

The company experienced strong growth in cash player numbers and overall player spend, delivering a 38% year-on-year increase in quarterly Net Gaming Revenues (NGR) from £1.23m in Q2 2010 to £1.7m this year. Growth in smartphone usage also continued during the period between 1 July and 30 September, it said, while it also launched its next generation mobile bingo product and ran a successful promotion involving a gold plated iPhone.

Total money deposited by players during the quarter was 61% higher than in the same quarter last year, with the number of active cash players in Q2 increasing by 44% compared to the same period last year.

Of new players who registered in the quarter, 50% of these were playing on an iPhone, iPod, iPad or Android device, the company found. Smartphone services for these devices were introduced in Q2 2010.

Without updating investors on how discussions with William Hill were progressing, Charles Cohen, CEO of Probability said it had been a "great quarter", delivering solid growth despite the summer holiday period which is usually weak. Hills has until Friday 17 October to state its intention on whether or not it will make a bid for the mobile operator.

In August this year, Probability released a new version of its mobile bingo product, that since it launched its original bingo platform in 2006, has "consistently been one the most popular games ever", it said in a statement. In the last financial year, bingo had more players than any other single game operated by the company, it added.

The new bingo service is now available to iPhone and Android customers who now make up half the company's active user base. In addition, a number of new features and a new interface have been introduced including the ability to pre-buy tickets for future games, rollover jackpots and promotional games with discounted or free entry.

"Highlights included not just the launch of our next generation bingo platform but also a very successful promotion in which one lucky customer picked up a genuine 24 carat gold plated iPhone 4 during September – helping to make this one of our best quarters ever," Cohen said.

"As well as bingo, we have been delighted by the response to a trial TV advertising campaign for our core LadyLuck's brand. This is now a highly scalable marketing opportunity and we are exploring how we can expand this over the coming months to continue to build on the strong momentum we already have," the chief executive added.

[aishah] 06/10/2011 09:28

Hope William Hill don't get this one on the cheap. They're now going great guns now!

[guidfarr] 06/10/2011 09:21

Trading Update, Q2 FY2011/12

Probability plc, the specialist mobile gambling provider, is pleased to update
investors on its trading and operations in the period from 1 July 2011 to 30
September 2011.

The Company experienced strong growth in cash player numbers and overall player
spend, delivering a 38% YoY increase in quarterly revenues. Growth in
smartphone usage continued whilst the Company also launched its next generation
mobile Bingo product and ran a highly successful promotion involving a gold
plated iPhone.

Core Business Trading Highlights (unaudited)

* Net Gaming Revenue of GBP1,702,000 for the quarter, an increase of 38% on the
same period last year (Q2 2010/11: GBP1,232,000).

* Total money deposited by players into their gambling accounts with the
Company during the quarter was 61% higher than in the same quarter last
year.

* Number of active cash players in the quarter increased by 44% compared to
the same quarter last year.

* Of new players who registered in the quarter, 50% of these were playing on
an iPhone, iPod, iPad or Android device. Services for these devices were
introduced during Q2 2010.

* Combined with the previously announced unaudited trading results for the
first quarter, total Net Gaming Revenues for the first half of the current
year were approximately GBP3.27m, 42% higher than the first half of the
previous financial year (GBP2.31m).

New Bingo

In August 2011, Probability launched a new generation of its mobile Bingo
product.

The Company first launched a mobile Bingo platform in 2006 and the product has
consistently been one the most popular games ever since. During the last
financial year, Bingo still had more players than any other single game
operated by the Company.

The new Bingo service is, for the first time, available to iPhone and Android
customers who now make up half the Company's active user base. In addition, a
number of new features and a more modern interface have been introduced
including the ability to pre-buy tickets for future games, rollover jackpots
and promotional games with discounted or free entry. Chat moderation, including
quizzes for customers, will be managed by the Company's Gibraltar subsidiary.

Commenting on the trading results, Probability CEO Charles Cohen said: "This
was a great quarter for us, delivering solid growth despite the summer holiday
period which is usually weak.

"Highlights included not just the launch of our next generation Bingo platform
but also a very successful promotion in which one lucky customer picked up a
genuine 24 carat gold plated iPhone 4 during September - helping to make this
one of our best quarters ever.

"As well as Bingo, we have been delighted by the response to a trial TV
advertising campaign for our core LadyLuck's brand. This is now a highly
scalable marketing opportunity and we are exploring how we can expand this over
the coming months to continue to build on the strong momentum we already have."

[666james] 04/10/2011 13:36

some folk getting out whilst they can....I hope it will be worth the wait

[guidfarr] 02/10/2011 21:30

MOBILE GAMBLING MARKET STILL GROWING

[guidfarr] 29/9/2011 21:36

brownie yes but its also flexible - it could easily be plugged in into other sites as can be seen by the likes of paddypower, bluesq, ..etc I'm sure a software provider would also know how to use it - recall that probability had also a working relationship with mobenga which playtech has already acquired.

[brownie69] 29/9/2011 20:04

Guildafarr.

Probability is predominantly a B2C operator. Playtech is strictly B2B, thus I'm not surprised that the offer has come from an operator.

However its premature in my view. I'd want around 110p to consider it seriously and i wonder whether that is a step too far for a stock thayt was trading around 50p pre bid news. Happy to bat on otherwise.

[666james] 27/9/2011 12:00

The longer these things go on the better...they have to talk about something !!

[666james] 23/9/2011 13:01

I wonder what is happening...hopefully no news is good news. I thought the odd leak might come out in the press. Fingers and toes crossed for a decent takeover.

[the analyst] 20/9/2011 10:26

I guess that there is a big difference between the ladbrokes/888 situation and what we are seeing here. The main difference is the size and complexity of the businesses involved. With ladbrokes and 888 you have two massive companies, a huge power struggle and all sorts of other complications, it seems.

But with PBTY the situation is simple. It would be seen as a small add-on company that would add huge value to any of the big gaming companies.

A takeover price of £30/£40 million would be peanuts to most of the big gaming companies, so I could easily see someone else coming in to bid for them

£30m = 110p

£40m = 147p

Ambitious targets, but possible if we see bidding interest from other companies

[666james] 20/9/2011 10:13

guidfarr...I know you are right but there is no charge for dreaming ;+))

[guidfarr] 19/9/2011 19:01

i've stopped dreaming of bidding wars after what went on with ladbrokes/888 ;( but who knows ;)

[666james] 19/9/2011 17:45

454..I have been dreaming of that all weekend. Hope you are right

[the analyst] 19/9/2011 17:24

I wonder what the chance of a bidding war developing here is?

The technology, new products and new contract wins would have considerable appeal to plenty of companies other than William Hill