Probability Share Discussion Threads

[guidfarr] 11/5/2011 21:03

we need news of new licensees Mr Cohen :) or new of that iPhone bingo platform rolled out - noting the bingo explosion that would really be a nice boost

[666james] 09/5/2011 09:18

Profit takers after the recent surge?

[rambutan2] 29/4/2011 15:54

Few bits (for my info) mainly taken from PTEC's y/e results.


Italy is where PBTY is hoping to make a move...

Italy permitted bingo to run alongside tournament poker in March. Shortly after the regulations were enacted, SISAL launched its bingo offering on Playtech's platform and was joined in the summer by SNAI, Cogetech, Eurobet and Codere. With Italian casino and cash poker games set for launch in the coming few months this market, together with the UK, remains perhaps the most attractive in Europe for operators.

For most operators, mobile gaming has principally remained a complementary channel to their online offering rather than a more substantial revenue generator in its own right. Mobile can however add considerable value in enhancing player values and longevity. Playtech's internal analysis indicates the potential for a threefold increase in both player value and longevity where mobile gaming is integrated into a cross-platform casino offering, along with a suite of mobile-specific marketing tools.

Playtech enjoyed an increase of over 20% in mobile revenues in 2010 and expects this to grow with the recent launch of the mobile poker product. This will connect players to the iPoker network through a browser-based HTML5 application that supports many of the latest handsets and tablets, including Apple and Android devices.


An integral part of the cross-platform offering, Playtech Mobile enables valuable operator cross-selling opportunities across casino games, poker and live sports betting.

In 2010, mobile support for Playtech's Sports Betting platform was introduced, enabling essential in-running betting across a full range of sports, leagues, events and bet types. January 2011 saw the soft launch of Mobile Poker, which will be rolled out to operators in Q2.

Playtech Mobile provides operators with access to a constantly expanding player base, accompanying the rapid growth of mobile applications, games and marketing channels. Available on both mass-market handsets and high-end smartphones, an increasing number of games are now playable on the move.

The mobile platform enables operators to utilise unique targeted promotional tools, like push advertising and SMS messaging. The "Invite a Friend" feature allows players to invite friends directly from their contact list, and is used as an effective viral marketing tool. Automatic bonuses, loyalty points and VIP levels are configured and managed in the IMS and play a key role in player retention efforts.


PTEC partnered with this lot last December...

Buongiorno (FTSE Italy STAR: BNG) is the multinational leader in mobile entertainment. The Company counts on an unparalleled international presence with 24 offices and business in 57 countries in 5 continents, 200 direct connections with +130 telcos and access to over 2 billion mobile customers. The Company operates with two business lines: mobile value-added services distributed directly - through its brand BlinkoGold for Mobile Content services and its social networks aggregator Hellotxt - as well as through partnerships with leading telcos and media groups - and digital marketing services referred to as sponsored content (Buongiorno!Digital).

For more information about Buongiorno, please visit the website and

[brownie69] 22/4/2011 12:57

Cracking results! Lower costs and strong growth plus further product development into new market segments.

[guidfarr] 20/4/2011 14:02

""Our plans for 2011/12 are as ambitious as ever. We will shortly be launching a
new Bingo product which will be the first ever to be available for all types of
mobile device, including iPhones, iPods and Android devices as well as more
traditional feature phones."

that's probably by request from foxybingo :) And it sounds cool i have to say! just wish they would be more aggressive going after licensees.

[the analyst] 20/4/2011 12:53

Nice write-up, cheers for posting

Broker forecasting profit of £1.6m makes the shares look like great value, imo

[czar] 20/4/2011 07:42

EXPONENTIAL GROWTH

"Deposits from players in March 2011 were 82% higher than in March 2010."
" Monthly fixed operating costs were 16% lower in March 2011 than in March
2010, despite having significantly greater revenues and software platform
capacity."

This company has left the launch pad and will show exponential growth IMHO.

[the analyst] 20/4/2011 07:18

Very upbeat trading statement - seems all is going to plan. Good to see operating profitability combined with cash-flow positive trading coming through in the final quarter

Add a couple more b2b clients to the list and suddenly PBTY will become a very profitable company, imo.

[guidfarr] 18/4/2011 09:13

i guess prty ticker BPTY could also help attract more attention to probability lol - its so easily confused :)

[brownie69] 15/4/2011 08:50

Everywhere I look people are positive about the increase in mobile transactions and its so well suited to casino that must augar well for Probability. Plus the double whammy of the lower costs by the move to Gib. I'm expected decent results to kick start a re rating as we go cash flow positive.

My T/P at present is 100p

[rambutan2] 15/4/2011 01:49

Should have update by end of month.

from Rank's update today...
Rank Interactive achieved a 23% increase in revenue due to strong growth from Bluesq.com and Meccabingo.com. We are particularly encouraged by the growth in the number of customers enjoying our brands via online and mobile channels.

[guidfarr] 13/4/2011 12:59

Netplay TV Plc [note that I don't particularly recommend NPT as I've always considered that company shady!] noted that its mobile application is gaining traction



"Netplay TV has seen its total number of active casino players grow by 21.9% quarter-on-quarter, the interactive gaming company revealed in its trading update for the first quarter of 2011 this morning. The company now has 21,332 active casino players, while the total of 17,978 new casino players is a 14.9% improvement on the fourth quarter of 2010. There has also been progress in mobile with Netplay's iPhone application accounting for 12% of active and 22% of new players on its Supercasino product. Today's update is the first from Netplay since former COO Guy Templer moved to Pokerstars to become its new business development director."

should augur well for pbty - wonder when the next market update is due

[brownie69] 09/3/2011 09:31

This from the Paddy Power results. Good read across for Probability IMHO.



"Mobile turnover up more than three-fold to €112m or 11% of sportsbook stakes. 31% of our online sportsbook customers now transacting with us via mobile, generating 19% of stakes.
Evidence of the significant online investment, and the related returns, are clearly visible. Last year, we were at one stage the only bookmaker globally to have an iPhone app in Apple's App Store. We were also at one point the only bookmaker with an iPhone and iPad app in the App Store and an app in the Android Marketplace. We also launched over 100 new online games including a selection for mobile.
Technology development has facilitated opportunities for product innovation and enhanced marketing. In 2010, smart phone technology has changed how the internet is consumed, while social media has opened up new ways to reach and interact with customers. Paddy Power has taken full advantage of these opportunities. For example, a mobile phone sports bet is struck on average every three seconds on paddypower.com, while our expertise in app development has enabled the rapid creation of an Election Betting app, supported by a dedicated @pppolitics Twitter feed. We also continue to invest significantly in technology to ensure that we retain the capability to exploit the opportunities afforded by new media and technologies.
ONLINE DIVISION(Excluding Australia)

€m 2010 2009 % Change % Change in CC
Amounts staked 1,126.0 856.4 +31% +29%
Sportsbook gross win 90.9 55.3 +64% +61%
Sportsbook gross win % 8.6% 6.9%
Gaming & other gross win 72.8 52.5 +39% +34%
Total gross win 163.7 107.8 +52% +48%
Gross profit 143.0 94.6 +51% +47%
Operating costs (85.5) (48.9) +75% +72%
Operating profit 57.5 45.7 +26% +20%
This expansion in the choice of markets, together with the option of mobile betting, contributed to growth in the average number of bets per customer, partially offsetting the reduction in average stake per bet.
There were, as always, numerous product innovations in the year, but the stand-out highlight was mobile. After a few false dawns and several dodgy ringtones, the year of the mobile came with turnover up over 300% to €112m, or 11% of total sportsbook stakes. In January to February of this year, 31% of our online sportsbook customers transacted with us via mobile, generating 19% of the total amounts staked. We were first-to-market with a series of award winning mobile applications. These releases were backed up with a major brand advertising campaign in the UK and Ireland showcasing our technology credentials (for those that might mistake us for just a 'cheeky chappy'). In addition, we made significant investment in the evolving mobile advertising channels. We expect more innovation and growth this year as we continue to adapt our smartphone platform to the demands of the mobile user.

[rambutan2] 01/3/2011 02:35

Noticed that (the rightly highly rated) Giles Hargreaves holds approx 1m shares in his microcap fund, which I assume he picked up in the 50p placing last nov...

[rambutan2] 13/1/2011 16:36

Yes, that does sound promising.

This might be of broader interest to folks...
( )

[the analyst] 13/1/2011 13:42

Great news to get a contract with Party gaming

Thanks for that, guidfarr

[guidfarr] 13/1/2011 13:30

Probability Boosted By UK Blizzards
12 Jan, 2011 / GamblingCompliance / William Chambers
Severe winter weather in the UK helped fuel a record third quarter for London-listed Probability, as the mobile gambling operator enters 2011 with an extra spring in its step.

Probability's shares on London's Alternative Investment Market (AIM) jumped over 20 percent yesterday afternoon as the company reported a strong third quarter update that cheered investors.

Probability said its net revenues for the three months ended December 31 were up 30 percent year-on-year to £1.48m, as severe blizzards in late December – which stranded many travellers as trains and airports ground to a halt across the UK – brought an early Christmas present to the Alderney-based mobile company.

The weeklong snowfall in the run-up to Christmas was reported to be Probability's busiest period in the quarter, with wagering up an average 15 percent compared to snow-free days.

"The benefit of the weather was surprising as we didn't expect it to be as obvious an effect as it was. But to be honest trade was pretty good throughout the quarter," CEO Charles Cohen said yesterday.

Revenues at the mobile gaming company were also up on a sequential basis, rising by 20 percent from the second quarter of the year.

The 48,102 new players Probability registered in the third quarter also outdid the second quarter, up 22 percent on the just over 39,000 added in the previous three month period.

Referring to the UK's still-stuttering economy, Cohen said the country's gambling industry remains in the middle of a "hard slog".

Still, he added: "We are lucky enough that we are riding a wave of technological change and social change as well as delivering on a service that we know people want.

"I think that is happening independently of what the economy is up to or even what the weather is up to."

The increasing popularity in smartphone technologies, meanwhile, means mobile gambling on more advanced handsets now accounts for nearly one third of Probability's business.

Over a quarter of mobile gambling deposits in the third quarter were made on iPhone or Android devices, Probability said.

Earlier this year Probability predicted smartphones would play an increasing role in operations, and results from other companies appear to confirm that punters are increasingly attracted to the user friendly models.

Probability has also now landed a number of contracts to power mainstream company's mobile offerings, including betting products for Irish giant Paddy PowerPortfolio info about PADDY POWER, and just this month, a mobile bingo product for the PartyGamingPortfolio info about PartyGaming-owned Cashcade's Foxy Bingo.


see the last note

"Probability has also now landed a number of contracts to power mainstream company's mobile offerings, including betting products for Irish giant Paddy PowerPortfolio info about PADDY POWER, and just this month, a mobile bingo product for the PartyGamingPortfolio info about PartyGaming-owned Cashcade's Foxy Bingo."

[brownie69] 12/1/2011 18:37

Great Qtr 3 update. I got involved here because of iphones and the new generation phones being transactional devices and not just phones. Seeing a lot of phones being used for sports betting too, might be a good area for PBTY to get involved in?
Hopefully the numbers are going to grow and grow now as these devices increase market traction and user uptake of the transactional functionality increases.

[guidfarr] 12/1/2011 15:28

TrentEndBoy Mr netbetblog how is that your short of yours on 888 faring - you gotta admit you were wrong and i was right on that one ;P

[beeezzz] 11/1/2011 12:34

Julian Tolley has a buy note on stock, at last some real interest in this company, not much stock around either.

[the analyst] 11/1/2011 11:51

Very nice, been building a stake in pbty for a while, now, so this news is good to see.

The trend towards smart phones will only continue and for the first time, the games are actually playable and enjoyable. This is the most important aspect to the business going forward, I think

There are still dangers with competition etc. - I'd like to see another couple of contract wins to take things the company to a new level. Another contract or tow and I could see the market cap moving up to the £50m level. They have all the infrastructure in place to become a very big (and highly profitable) company

[rambutan2] 11/1/2011 10:07

Yes, i'm hoping for a breakthrough 2011...

Charles Cohen, Probability plc CEO, commented:

"This was a record quarter for Probability. It seems that the snow helped, and
our hunch is that customers were turning to their mobiles for entertainment
when they found themselves stuck at home or elsewhere.

Either way, what matters to us are the underlying trends which show that this
business is on the right side of powerful technological and behavioral changes
as people increasingly direct their attention to smartphones and tablets.

The best demonstration of this is the rapid takeup of our services on the
iPhone. These users are now approaching 30% of our business, from a standing
start in August. We have had great success in managing the upgrade path for
players who buy an iPhone or Android device and want to take their gambling
account with them.

We are uniquely positioned to take advantage of this trend, particularly as we
will be operating from a lower cost base than before once we transfer our
operations to Gibraltar from Alderney, and are able to explore opportunities in
Italy and elsewhere from there.

As the trading update confirms, this is going to be a very exciting period for
us."