Harbour Energy Share Discussion Threads

[emilio] 06/2/2019 17:14

hxxps://oilprice.com/Energy/Crude-Oil/Hedge-Funds-Drop-Shorts-On-Crude-Oil.html

[asa8] 06/2/2019 16:54

Why doesn’t someone talk to Ir about it

[whiskeyinthejar] 06/2/2019 16:30

Brent now up a dollar now since inventory data released at 3.30pm

Normally it takes a good few months for opec cuts to bite. IIRC it's 3 months for a tanker to travel from Saudi to USA? Venezulua sanctions could take a while to bite hard too. I read somewhere that service companies have until July before they have to stop working in Venezulua.

[whiskeyinthejar] 06/2/2019 15:56

IMO it's the dividend that supports oil majors share price during poo downturns.

[whiskeyinthejar] 06/2/2019 15:53

Inventory builds are expected during Feb (refinery maintenance season).

But builds not as big as feared, oil is now rallying.

[steve73] 06/2/2019 15:50

Stock-on-loan from Euroclear shows Jan average was 11.23% down from 13.37% in Dec.

This will absolutely fly when (if) these loan stock gets replace and returns to the more usual recent 5-7% (which are mostly covered by the outstanding warrants)

[rogsim] 06/2/2019 15:18

KaiSharp,

Many thanks for your response.

[kaisharp] 06/2/2019 15:14

rogsim - on the face of it, they hold a straightforward long CFD on PMO, where they profit if the share price rises.

But where GS is involved, a healthy dose of skepticism is suggested.

You can read through the board and find plenty of theories, from it being a hedge against a short, to position building, to price suppression for a takeover bid.

Truth is, unless GS come out and tell us exactly why they're opening and closing CFDs, we simply don't know what their motive is; whether they are genuinely long on PMO or if it's a tactical position for a bigger game that is afoot.

[zoro9791] 06/2/2019 15:09

A lot of catching up to do lolPretty upsetting.

[steve73] 06/2/2019 14:19

I've just been comparing my oil holdings to their 2 year highs.
The majors, BP, Shell(B), & Chevron are currently at 92%, 87%, & 89% (in $)
PMO is 50%
HUR is 70%
ENQ is just 35%
RKH is 54%.

I'm really surprised at how strong the majors are at this time, with still quite a weak oil price. PMO has a bit of catching up to do.

[duckdown] 06/2/2019 13:54

Thanks guys

[rogsim] 06/2/2019 12:00

Is there anyone who reads this BB who can explain what Goldman Sachs' interest in PMO might be? I am not as knowledgeable as I should be and I can't make head nor tail of their succession of holdings RNSs.

[onedb1] 06/2/2019 11:47

Hi Duck Demand year on year is up . Don't trust me follow the official EIA or IEA reports . As said below it's all about crude quality heavy vs light . Shale is light most of OPEC is heavy to medium so US inventories are holding the wrong type of oil . Many US refineries need heavy and needed the Venezuela oil . At the moment shale growth has been very strong but it will slow down . But remember Shell's recent update showed how production was almost twice reserve replenishment. In other words they need new fields to keep up etc . That ratio is low but for shale producers it's even lower and once the easy oil is pumped out deeper drills will need more Free Cash Flow then things get interesting . At any rate Premier has free cash flow over $45 . Ample margin and h1 hedge of $69 and H2 of $71 .http://www.eia.gov/todayinenergy/detail.php?id=38032

[gordo58] 06/2/2019 11:40

and looks like FT has an article showing the consequence of US producing too much of the one type of crude - they just don't explain the background to the story ;)

[gordo58] 06/2/2019 11:33

but DYOR :)

[gordo58] 06/2/2019 11:33

for the Catcher field produces the more sought after medium crude - Reserves are estimated at 96 MMboe of medium quality (25-31°API) oil. - I think this is good news and should allow PMO to ask for bigger premiums over brent in the coming months ;) ….maybe

[gordo58] 06/2/2019 11:28

duck - its all to do with crude quality and what you can do with the crude you buy, shale is light oil, good for making petrol (gasoline) not so good for diesel (the fuel of the moment) and the only place refineries are making a profit at the moment -so US inventories of crude and petrol will continue to climb unless they can get export markets up and running, Saudi cutbacks mostly effect medium heavy crude supplies to the US ……. I think ;)

[duckdown] 06/2/2019 11:17

Agree onedb1.

I don't quite understand these inventory builds though. Saudi has cut deeply, as have Canada, there have been big outages in Libya & turmoil in Venezuela. Bob Dudley saying the physical market is tightening and OPEC saying they will bring inventories under the 5 year average. US rig count is down in January and yet we are still getting quite significant inventory builds. I know it's now refinery maintenance season and we usually see builds this time of year but I'm surprised all of the above hasn't seemed to have an impact in US inventories yet. I'm sure demand hasn't dropped that much, so what's going on?!

[lodgeview] 06/2/2019 10:09

We will be in reverse. Oil plunging.

[fireplace22] 06/2/2019 09:48

handbrake? we're in reverse!

[asa8] 06/2/2019 09:43

Can someone take the handbrake off please

[onedb1] 06/2/2019 09:29

Brent is trading nicely above it's year to date average . Not sure why a daily 1% swing is to be even noted give that on a 1 day production basis it counts for nearly zip. Jan averaged just over $60 for the unhedged 2 thirds . Say production was 80k . So Daily gross revenue of 2 thirds at $60 = 53,333 sold at $60 ( am excluding premium / discounts etc) so roughly $3.2m gross a day then and the third at $69. Now here comes 1 day where price dips 0.5 or 1% . (Probably to recover the next day ). Do the maths of the impact . Btw over $1 above the year to date average is where we are . So $62 or $61.5 makes a rather small difference to the bottom line . Almost irrelevant . The year to date moving average is what matters and the achieved price .

[lageraemia] 06/2/2019 07:17

Lodge mate. The Y axis on your 1 minute share charts doesn’t go down to zero.

When you're on the train, are cows you see 1 inch tall, or are they just half a mile away?

It’s called ‘perspective’.

[mercer95] 05/2/2019 20:34

Lodgeview(SCREWLOOSE) you need to look up the meaning of collapsing/crashing,it’s not possible for things to crash every single day, it’s possible in WHACKY RACES or ROAD RUNNER but they are CARTOONS,this is REAL LIFE,do you understand the difference,there are of course exceptions to this crashing every day rule,PRINCE PHILIP,RICHARD HAMMOND,MARVINS IQ to name but a few,no offence intended (I REALLY DON’T CARE) & good luck with your trades(HOMEWORK).