Premaitha Share Discussion Threads

[hjb1] 25/4/2018 10:22

no news until next month according to Hardmans!

[humphries1] 25/4/2018 10:00

we want news and want it now PLEASE

[timojelly] 07/4/2018 06:51

Hopefully we exist the UK rapidly and turn a profit.

[ramas] 06/4/2018 17:19

What's the end game here , thermo fisher buy them for small premia ? Looks like more spring cleaning their JT shares , not one of my better investments for sure

[hjb1] 26/3/2018 13:43

Illumina don't have patents anywhere else Prem are doing business except Europe and Illumina have already lost a similar case in Germany 3 years ago, so maybe reluctant to try that again and if they try in France then I expect France will follow Germany's lead as they usually do.
Most other European nations ain't worth bothering with as the take up is soooo slow.

[rathean] 26/3/2018 13:03

I sold out of these on Friday just to pool money for elsewhere, not a strategy decision. I don't see the litigation stopping until they're driven out of the UK and then what is to prevent similar action elsewhere?I'll keep them on the watchlist but the risk here has gone up imo.

[the monkster] 26/3/2018 09:19

next stop the administrators not 2p. what a shambles

[michaelmouse] 26/3/2018 08:29

Next stop 2p. Fundraise. New low today.

[pj 1] 26/3/2018 08:07

''We are currently reviewing our options in the UK with new legal advisers and we will update investors on the next steps alongside our year end trading update which is expected in April''

These new legal advisors will want to maximise their income from this ''dispute'' then.

[small crow] 26/3/2018 07:53

kurt, what do you see as a sensible price?

[thinkbig?] 26/3/2018 07:30

Beam me up Scotty lol

[captain_kurt] 26/3/2018 07:20

This ends the uncertainty and the Rest of the world is 100 times bigger than the UK market.

A re-rating is on the cards imo

[captain_kurt] 26/3/2018 07:13

Good news imo.

They will be out of the UK in April and are making plans.

This will end the uncertainty and result in a re-rating

[ngen yap] 22/3/2018 13:18

Dear all, still (heavily) invested and watching on the sidelines. Share price very depressing and certainly not warranted, even if not surprising. I have not posted for a long time and probably not since the disappointing judgement.

Since then, my decision to stay/accummulate/sell was dependent on a few key business critical checklist:

New deals signed - this shows confidence of new customers despite the legal circumstance in the UK - we have had quite a few (4 x Europe, East Asia, ME, Egypt etc);

Thermofisher support - they have come good with deposit / payment into Escrow account of £2.1m without warrants, pending appeal;

UK specific nature of legal - company and outcome hearing in January confirmed this is UK only, and there has been no further writs from Illumina (yet and thankfully);

Extent of exposure - looks like 10% of UK revenue + legal costs. This is manageable given gross margin in 40-50% even if painful!

Break even / cash flow positive by year end - whilst not confirmed, I expect us to deliver this. We had £1.6m left as at end September. £0.6m R&D credit to come. Plus £1m from Thermo loan in February. That's £3.2m. If we are not nearly break even already, we will have raised more cash by now.

So, four big ticks and one I expect to hear soon.

Of course, we would all like settlement and to close this chapter. And we all know there has been a conscious effort from Premaitha to do so. Lots of talk about possible settlement now - this is a definite possibility but even in its absence, the process will help the EU Commission review and anti-trust defence, which then strengthens settlement route.

I expect FY revenue to be circa £6.5 - £7m, growing to £11-12m in 2018/19. This based on existing deals. Brazil and China to come I reckon. I also suspect there are new products being developed and more than likely a new lab set up to process tests outside UK, powered by Thermofisher, as a counter measure.

Stay positive and for the brave, buy!

All the best.

[thinkbig?] 20/3/2018 07:44

What a 3 year chart shortest dream

[the monkster] 18/3/2018 23:02

So 50p by the summer then. After a 1:100 consolidation I mean.

[dj trading] 18/3/2018 21:38

Cash critical?
1H P&L -£3.2m excluding litigation provisions and costs

I assume 2H P&L negative (-£2m?) doesn't really matter given level of current payables as at 30 Sept 2017 of £4.8m presumably mainly to legal firms

2H cashflow the knowns
Cash at 30/9/17 £1.6m
22 Jan TF loan +£2.1m (in escrow?)
24 Jan Costs to Illumina -£1.5m
12 Feb $1m TF loan associated with warrants +£0.7m?
Total known cash £3.1m (less £0.6m in escrow?)£2.5m?
Burn P&L £2m+?
Balance less than £1m? but they had £4.8m of current payables - I don't see how they can be paid this half even if they collect some of their outstanding Debts.

Sources of funds
Will TF put in more? having already loaned in excess of £10m vs a market cap now under £14m I doubt it. They have security over all the assets anyway

Fundraising? - usually needs Director support of 5-10% given risk level
So just for fun here's my guess £3-5m at 3p in the next few weeks (with an adjustment to TF Warrant pricing? to compensate for dilution)

Edit - I understand from reading LSE Board that there is a court judgement expected this week. Presumably the outcome will determine their course of action.

Summary of important numbers - note Creditors at 30/9/17 of £4.8m! dyor
...........1H 2H16 1H 2H17 1H18
Revenue.. 0.6 1.8 1.5 1.6 2.7*
Cashburn. 4.4 3.8 3.7 4.2 4.4
Creditors 1.2 2.1 2.6 3.5 4.8
Borrowings. 0 1.4 2.6 4.3 8.1
* inc Yourgene

[the monkster] 13/3/2018 23:24

What a shambles.

[slartybartfaster] 13/3/2018 22:00

The mouse is nailed again by his nemesis, elrico. Caught out in his double standards.

elrico
13 Mar '18 - 19:25 - 2106 of 2108
0.000050 3 0
Michaelmouse answered while he still avoids the elephant in the room.

MM: Firstly, why does it take them 5 months to prepare relatively simple accounts for the year ending in November 2017? To fill the void, surely they could issue a brief trading statement with guidance on revenues and cash remaining? Most reputable companies don't have a problem with this.

Me: 3 months, 5 months, it matters not as long as they fall within the 6 month reporting limit. And you shouldn't use the word "reputable" when invested in frauds (AVN, INTQ) and a company that has restated accounts (TRAKM8). OPTI usually report interims within 4 months and FY 5 months. This info is on the company website, as has been pointed out before.

MM:Secondly, by now after announcing a number of agreements they must have some idea about revenues for 2018?

Me: Another double standard...lets keep it simple shall we, 7DIG, AVN, TRAKM8, IND, STL; have any of these given revenue guidance for the year ahead? If they have, I missed them. In any event, OPTI is barely 6 months (accounting calendar) into transition from R&D to commercial yet, and many of the partnerships are wrapped up in NDA's, which has attributed to the stagemation thus far. Surely you should be applauding the BOD for not ramping up their book, as so many AIM companies do. In any event, how do you quantify sales in new markets, with new products, using new science? Please explain!

MM: Thirdly, the figures are really all that matter presently. At a market cap. of £50m, the potential has already been "baked in" to the share price and has been for two years. The figures they publish still need to justify the current market cap. never mind justify substantial gains in the share price

Me: To a degree, I guess I can allow a little leeway with this opinion. However, I would point to the industry valuation for SweetBiotix of £20+m, just 1 of several possible spinouts, and it has no commercial footprint yet, no commercial partner that we know of yet. I would also point out OptiBiotic platform has recently enhanced the LGG strain, the world's most popular probiotic...I'll spare your blushes by not mentioning the value of this strain. OPTI have several strains, which has real potential to be significantly more valuable.....in time. In short, the IP has real value, especially those commercialised via SlimBiome and LP-LDL.

MM: Anyway, it's aimho. On a more positive note, if you truly believe in the company and its potential then just hang on in there over the long term, but carefully monitor the figures because ultimately they will drive the share price. The rest is all speculation on what could or might be.

Me: Ah, we are aligned. You have long advocated trusting your research and hold long term. And yes of course, one should always monitor what the company says, read between the lines and pay particular attention to companies accounts, especially those that are forced to restate profits as losses....cough, cough!

MM: That's all from me for a while.

Me: It's probably best, you made a hash of that and I suspect you are perhaps a little concerned the level of partnerships may well prove worthy of rewarding those of use that stand by our research, speak to the company and look at the humanbiome sector and see perhaps what others do not.

Don't feel pressured to respond...It's best you don't - keep your head down. ;)

[slartybartfaster] 13/3/2018 14:57

Elrico, you need to come back and update this, especially after mickymouses twitter rant.

[slartybartfaster] 13/3/2018 11:57

The great and wonderful TW troll michaelmouse, the one he doesn't want you to know of.
Soon to be update with his other outstanding investment calls. 7DIG, IND,STL all suck pi's in with the lure of a divi which is outstripped with a negative share price trend. And his favourite, TRAK has bombed and worse still, fraud AVN lost 97%. Yes, this guy is spookilly accurate. lol