Prelude Trust Share Discussion Threads

[hvs] 03/5/2007 20:21

Its going to turn without warning.

[hvs] 03/5/2007 20:19

lol !!!!

You a nomad ?

[jtjh] 03/5/2007 14:20

I simply became fed up with the juvenile approach by one contributor to any post that was less than fulsome towards PDT. Needless to say I've always found your comments to be well balanced.

[timtom2] 03/5/2007 13:53

The chart is lookng pretty sick.

[tiltonboy] 03/5/2007 13:43

jtjh,

Why don't you use the main PDT thread rather than post on here?

tiltonboy

[jtjh] 03/5/2007 13:38

TimTom2

The advertising market for this type of product will be enormous and very lucrative for the major players. I'm unsure how many software search products are out there, but if m-spatial can grab a decent slice of the market then this should ensure a decent return for PDT.

[timtom2] 03/5/2007 11:56

Let hope m-spatial get an uplift with the new "all the web you can eat" deals on mobiles. As good a time as any.

[jtjh] 03/5/2007 06:30

I see that Yahoo have just launched a mobile internet local search product. A pity that m-spatial was not involved, at least I don't think they are as there hasn't been any announcement from m-spatial as far as I know. However, this will be a big market and m-spatial has some good partners to date.

[rivaldo] 30/4/2007 22:01

Phyworks news - OK, good that they've achieved ISO standards, but this quote is more interesting:



"The timing of achieving the ISO reflects the next stage of the development of the business. We are now ramping in sales..."

[timtom2] 25/4/2007 12:58

Would this be fast enough for KVM usage?
Imagine a single PC in the house and the kids bedrooms with just KVM's. Might even be a power saver. Just dreaming of course.

[rivaldo] 25/4/2007 12:33

Looks like the 8k seller lost patience. A 1.5p markdown is a bit extreme though. Anyway, re Siconnect - I just got sent this and can't remember if it's been posted, so here it is:



"SiConnect demonstrates UDP multicast video streaming over powerline

In-home communications technology company SiConnect is to make its first public demonstration of UDP multicast video streaming at the IPTV World Forum.

Based on its recently announced PLT050 powerline communication (PLC) transceiver chip, the demonstration will show the ease with which IPTV data can be distributed throughout the home via the domestic electrical wiring circuit.

"Achieving one-to-many broadcasting of IPTV data over powerline represents a significant step forward in the development of the digitally connected home," said Robert Stead, VP Marketing SiConnect. "Quality of service (QoS), whole home coverage and immunity to noise are prerequisites for such an application and SiConnect's POEM technology clearly proves its advantages in this demonstration."

Unlike its rivals, POEM technology employs a Synchronous Multiple Access / Contention Resolution (SMA/CR) protocol and a 16 service level QoS management technique to guarantee fair and prioritised distribution of competing multimedia data streams on the powerline network.

It ensures whole home coverage by using a peer-to-peer meshed network topology which enables each node to act as an intelligent repeater capable of creating 'ad hoc' networks. Since networks self-configure, user installation is 'plug and play' while POEM's in-built security assures privacy.
Global EMC compliance was another key design criteria in the development of SiConnect's technology. The PLT050 enable designers to produce products that comply with FCC Part 15, CISPR 22 and its European derivative EN55022 – a mandatory requirement for the marketing of consumer electronic in Europe."

[spin doctor] 23/4/2007 22:36

I am sure OI's TB test is an advance, but it is not perfect, acceptance will take time, and there are and will be competitors.
For an up-to-date rigorous peer reviewed article (complex, but demonstrates that the discussion/argument around this is not simple), see: www.hta.nhsweb.nhs.uk/fullmono/mon1103.pdf
One of the authors of that review is a lead player in development of the T-SPOT test, so if anything the review should be considered to have been "kind" to the OI product.

The key point however is - as riv points out - that "PDT's valuation of OI remains very cheap imo given any degree of success"

[tiltonboy] 23/4/2007 22:25

riv,

I spoke to OI about two months ago, after contacting a quoted diagnostics company who gave me some information about the Cellestis test. Incidentally type "TB tests" into google and OI come out at the top.

There is no doubt that Cellestis also have a test that is better then the Mantoux test, but the market is so big, that there is room for all of them.

Cellestis have been around for a long time, but OI believe that there test is better than their's.

Even a modest share of the market could support the £100m valuation you suggest.

tiltonboy

[rivaldo] 23/4/2007 20:53

Also nicely put tiltonboy - the OI test has to be better in the long run. Anyway, I put Orange's points to OI today and they responded as follows:

- re the Mantoux test remaining first choice, "we expect that with all our published and new data these recommendations might change"

- re the comment that T-Spot TB is expensive, "we tend to discuss pricing on an individual customer base. However, we have a cost benefit analysis publication that can actually show how you can save money with T-SPOT.TB."

- re the throwing up of false negatives and not usurping the Mantoux test, "We cannot support this comment as all our published data points to a very sensitive test (around 96% sensitivity) in comparison with 70-90% of sensitivity in the skin test for immunocompetent groups (94% vs 30-50% in immunocopromised groups)".

The latter comment in particular seems pretty clear. All in all, I think we can expect OI's test to take precedence - it's a question of time and also whether there are any other tests under development, and I'm sure there are. The point is that PDT's valuation of OI remains very cheap imo given any degree of success.

Perhaps PDT's undervaluation relative to NAV and its portfolio has finally attracted some interest today.

[hvs] 23/4/2007 18:39

Nice to see a bit of BLUE today.

[tiltonboy] 23/4/2007 14:53

Orange,

It depends on what you call expensive. The actual test may be more expensive, but the "real cost" is likely to be less, is more accurate, and hence takes less resource.

tiltonboy

[orange1] 23/4/2007 14:39

Riv

Not a medic. My info is based on an article in a Dutch newspaper I recently came across. The info in the article was based on research done by some professors in Utrecht and published in the States. There was also reference to research in South Korea. Interestingly, no reference to any of this research on the Oxford Immu. website!

The gist was that the Mantoux test is over a hundred years old. All its good points and bad points are well known. The same cannot be said of the OI test. That needs to be researched further. It is also expensive. For the foreseable future it will remain as a second line test. That is the position in the UK and is likely to be the position in other countries as well.

[tiltonboy] 23/4/2007 14:23

Could that 759K be a further sale by Newton. They held 1.48m after the sale announced last week.

[rivaldo] 23/4/2007 14:13

Orange1, nicely put, but how can you say with such certainty "for the coming few years"? OI's tests are already being sold worldwide, and if the existing main test is so poor then OI will presumably be aiming to increase distribution/sales etc pronto. Are you a medic/expert in the field or have you spoken to others who are? Such certainty is interesting to say the least.

Lovely big 759k X-trade - seems to have impressed the market (clearance of an overhang?).

[orange1] 23/4/2007 13:16

Rivaldo

There are some further studies that have already been done on T-Spot TB and there are still some to be done.
The position at present (and for the coming few years at least) seems to be that the tried and tested Mantoux test will remain the test of choice in the first instance. If that test throws up a positive then there are two competing tests (one of which is T-Spot TB) which are then carried out. If the second test is positive the patient is treated for TB. If it is negative then the patient is not treated (for TB).
The trouble with T-Spot TB is that it is expensive, the new inexperienced kid on the block and tends to throw up some false negatives. Until further tests are carried out to determine more precisely its reliability it will not usurp the Mantoux test as the (first) test of choice.

[timtom2] 23/4/2007 13:05

So - if all the planets line up well - what coul be the NAV?

[rivaldo] 23/4/2007 13:00

You may be right ralva. But it seems from past RNS's that Spread's holdings are separate from those of Bob Hook's own holdings (for example) as the respective numbers for the holdings don't seem to tie up - if you look at the last few "Director Shareholding" RNS's it's impossible to follow through the Spread movements with Bob Hook's own moveemnts as far as I can see.

More excellent news from Oxford Immunotec. If their TB test takes precedence they'll quickly be worth £100m as opposed to the current £18m in the books imo:



"Study results confirm utility of T-SPOT®.TB as a rapid rule out test for
tuberculosis disease

Oxford, UK; 19th April 2007 – Oxford Immunotec Ltd, the T cell measurement company, today announced the publication of a recent study demonstrating the use of T-SPOT.TB with non-blood samples and its use as a rule out test for active TB disease.

In the study, reported in the American Journal of Critical Care Medicine, Jafari et al investigated the potential use of T-SPOT.TB to diagnose pulmonary TB using bronchoalveolar lavage ('BAL') fluid. The study showed that using T-SPOT.TB in this way could identify cases that are missed by conventional
methods such as sputum smear and PCR.

Diagnosis of TB is extremely difficult. Pathogen detection methods such as microscopy (called 'smear') and PCR, although quick, lack sensitivity. The most sensitive (although not foolproof) method, bacterial culture, takes two to six weeks to give a result which produces an unacceptable delay in
diagnosis. This study demonstrated that T-SPOT.TB was able to identify active pulmonary TB within 24 hours using BAL, even in cases missed by conventional methods.

In the study, 37 patients with suspected pulmonary TB were enrolled. Of these, diagnosis of active TB was confirmed via culture for 8 patients and a further 4 were finally diagnosed as having active TB notwithstanding a negative culture result. The remaining 25 patients were diagnosed as having
alternate non-TB diagnoses. All 37 patients were then tested using T-SPOT.TB on both blood and BAL samples. T-SPOT.TB was 100% specific and sensitive in identifying the 12 active pulmonary TB cases and excluding those patients who did not have TB. The sensitivity of T-SPOT.TB was found to be higher than that for PCR. As a result the authors concluded that T-SPOT.TB could be used to test
BAL as an effective 'rule in' test for active pulmonary TB. The role of T-SPOT.TB in diagnosing active TB has also recently been highlighted in another recent publication by Gooding et al. In this study TSPOT.TB was able to accelerate the diagnose of TB infection over alternative approaches leading to
the early initiation of effective treatments.

Commenting on the results, Dr Peter Wrighton-Smith, Chief Executive Officer of Oxford Immunotec said, "This study has demonstrated the clinical utility of our platform with non-blood samples in addressing a significant problem for clinicians. Through our ability to identify cases of active pulmonary disease in smear negative patients, clinicians can adopt the correct treatment regime
quickly avoiding the onward transmission of disease. This 'rule in' test using samples taken directly from the site of infection represents an important addition to the clinician's armoury ""

[ralva] 23/4/2007 09:49

There may be some small amount of "double counting" in your numbers--most of the time when Bob Hook deals it seems to be through Spread Trustees. I suspect that the shares in the name of Spread Trustees are in fact the shares held by the Prelude executive directors.

[rivaldo] 23/4/2007 08:39

Good to see a 1p rise on just 5k shares bought.

I've edited the header re Newton's holding - we still have 86% of the shares held by over 3%'ers and directors.

[hvs] 21/4/2007 20:02

lol !!!

not looking for protection ?