Prelude Trust Share Discussion Threads

[spin doctor] 15/4/2007 13:05

Problem for you then Skyship is that each exit announcement worth (say) 5-10p on the NAV is likely to result in an instant share price markup of approximately that, whether there be new buyers or no.
Maybe yours is the correct approach though - the opportunity cost of my "buy and wait" approach has been rather large....

[skyship] 15/4/2007 10:49

Rivaldo - Great header - thanks for all the work (past & future) that goes into maintaining that quality.

General question - which of the investments has a 100%-200% potential upside sometime soon which would encourage an upward re-rating?

As to PDT's current valuation, for a portfolio of unquoted stocks surely a 20% discount is fair enough - perhaps even on the generous side. Had a good run out of this back in 2003, though sold far too soon. For the timebeing I shall continue to watch this on my Monitor for a good entry point - would prefer an RSI > 50 and an share price above the 50day MA.

[rivaldo] 15/4/2007 10:17

Hi Kneath, welcome. Hvs simply has a more interesting posting style than most of us I think :o))

There's been a lot of movement in the shareholder base over time. If any of them did wish to divest, as with any listed share it's not in their interest to dump shares, they would simply try to find a willing buyer or feed into the market at a time of greater demand.

But as you can see from the header post, institutional interest has been increasing recently to the point where 93% of the shares are in known hands! That must point to a certain degree of confidence. Also, the tender offer at 135p a few months ago would have taken out a load of weak holders.

Hvs' post 16 sums things up succinctly regarding the valuations and the investment style needed here. An investee exit via IPO or sale might be announced tomorrow or in a year, and the valuations are what they are - though it's likely that a buyer will be willing to pay more at some point, as they did with CPS, Fillfactory etc.

I do believe the chaff has now gone and it's the wheat that remains (Sciona was my main doubt, but that seems to have found massive support, and at PDT's valuation, via a huge investment from the giant DSM). Since many investees are now approaching or at maturity patient investors may start to reap the rewards. The question is when, and whether you are an investor who's willing to wait. Given the apparent lack of downside and high upside that's why I've got my PDT shares in my ISAs and PEPs.

[hvs] 14/4/2007 12:20

Kneath,

"Superior" Moi !!!

Are you having a larf ?

[kneath] 14/4/2007 11:17

hvs - Thanks for the reply.

"It does not matter, its a market and why would a significant holder want to divest ?" ...... There are many reasons why institutions divest themselves of stock, not merely because it is floundering. Redirection of resources, change of portfolio profiling, visible opportunity etc.

Glad to know that I was not alone in having difficulty trying to assess the value of the unquoted companies - as it appeared (as is the case I believe) that the tabulated valuations only recorded an accurate value on those that had 'expired' or gone awry.

I'm still trying to get my head around the 'infants' and 'heat' comments to determine whether they were merely dismissive, sufficiently patronising to merit a response, or whether in fact you are actually superior.

Again, thank you for taking the time to respond to my first posting on this BB

[rivaldo] 14/4/2007 08:02

Tiltonboy, interesting - I've added you to the substantial holders list in the header, which now comprises 93% of the total shares in issue! Absolutely amazing.

Excellent news from De Novo, who already have partnerships with Genzyme, Roche, Eli Lilly and Genentech:



"De Novo Pharmaceuticals Ltd. Announces New Partnering Opportunity in Diabetes
9th April 2007
CAMBRIDGE, England and SANTA ROSA, California - De Novo Pharmaceuticals Ltd, a world leader in computational drug design, has announced that it has completed work on the in silico design of novel inhibitors for 11 beta-hydroxysteroid dehydrogenase. This work is available for partnering opportunities.

De Novo is applying SkelGen®, the Company's proprietary in silico drug design platform, to the design of new compounds for significant targets within the diabetes field. SkelGen is a structure-based drug design technology platform that has been shown to improve the speed and effectiveness of the drug discovery process.

Philip Dean, Chief Scientific Officer at De Novo, commented: "Metabolic disease is an important therapeutic area with many targets that present a major opportunity for De Novo`s technologies. The design of many novel scaffolds for this key diabetes target extends the Company`s capabilities and is our first program in this new therapeutic area.""

[hvs] 13/4/2007 17:11

Well done.

Am sure it will work out.

[tiltonboy] 13/4/2007 16:58

hvs,

They did get advice...from me!!!!

tiltonboy

[hvs] 13/4/2007 16:55

tiltonboy,

I look at it as positive if UK PI's have over a million. They must have confidence in the company and must have bought on getting advice.

Just have to patient here.

[tiltonboy] 13/4/2007 16:50

hvs,

The shares are all under the control of the Brum office; not quite as exciting.

tiltonboy

[hvs] 13/4/2007 16:44

Thank you for that tiltonboy,

EFGHA are part of a huge outfit with head offices in Switzerland. If their clients
have over 1mill that says a lot.

[tiltonboy] 13/4/2007 16:14

Clients of EFGHA have got over 1m shares as well.

tiltonboy

[hvs] 13/4/2007 16:07

Hi Kneath,

It does not matter ,its a market and why would a significant holder want to divest ? If its because of bad performance , then everyone who invested in
PDT deserve to take a hit. If not any free shares will be moped up.

Its is almost impossible to value unquoted investments. So a waste of time even trying. The value will be crystalised and known in the event of an IPO.

The point here is, PDT is not for day traders or for infants. The fact that
it has had a poor performance in the past is TOTALLY IRRELEVANT.

PDT is an incubator about to hatch. Its a free world and everyone is
entitled to their opinion. If you cannot stand the heat get out of the kitchen.

To me PDT is cheap and CHIPS a £ a bag.

[kneath] 13/4/2007 15:59

hvs - it matters if a significant holder decides to unload as the market dilution on the insignificant remainder would indeed be significant - IMHO of course.

Just spent an eternity on the Prelude website (doing research I should have done prior to investing) and I find the site a bit of a mixed bag. Whilst impressive in it's format and navigation-ability, I have to admit to being confused by the numbers generally. Reading the 2000-2005 figures (i.e the latest available) it doesn't appear to make hugely impressive reading with several investment faux-pax along the way. I refer in particular to the table that lists the investments at cost and current valuation. Given the contention above that we should focus on the future and not the past due to the apparent developments within the company, is it therefore the case that the 'failed' investments are pretty much behind us and they are 'running' the successful ones as supported by additional funding for same? (in addition of course to new investments)....or am I completely missing the point as I have frequently been known to do. Hope this makes sense. TIA

[hvs] 13/4/2007 15:28

Does that matter if the 90% know what is going on ?

[ralva] 13/4/2007 15:19

With around 90% of the shares owned by Institutions I'm sure that the management do agood job of keepng them closely in touch----however I'm not sure that they give a t*ss about the odd 10% in private hands.

[hvs] 13/4/2007 12:02

Thank you riv,

I hope a few more requests to them and they will have no choice but to do something to promote the Company and shreholders interests.

[rivaldo] 13/4/2007 11:35

Ta hvs, now that's good work. I'll contact them as well to get them to produce an updated report and also do a roadshow - there should be plenty to talk about and promote.

[hvs] 13/4/2007 09:08

Hi riv,

I contacted Prelude regarding the statement on their website that City Insights
will do 2 write ups a year on the company and the fact being the last one was in April 2006.

I quote the reply received :

We have in the past enlisted City Insights to provide these reports to coincide with our roadshows, last year we could not easily schedule the usual roadshow events into our timetable. We have not finalised our timetable for this year but will do so shortly. I will let you know if there is likely to be an updated report.

Unquote:

I can post the relevant e-mail address at Prelude if anyone wants it. I think the
more shreholders request a roadshow and an update from City Insights the greater
the chance we will have one.

[timtom2] 13/4/2007 08:31

SiConnect in paricular could be another CSR but for wire line - I don't mean in terms of what the end product is but its potential and the lead SiConnect have.

Margins must be good, barriers to entry high, potential market massive in the developed world - can you imagine 2-3 connection points per household in the first world?

PS - great header riv.

[rivaldo] 13/4/2007 08:18

Orange1, you stirrer! It's a personal thing, but I really don't have much to contribute in prolonged discussions about such subjective matters. For example, I didn't think CPS' valuation was sustainable and said so at the time - but CPS was sold at a nice profit, so I was proven pleasantly wrong. ZBD and Polatis are similarly highly valued on the usual value metrics - but ZBD's valuation has obviously been supported by the recent fundraising, and I assume Polatis have probably been measured in the same way.

Certainly it seems to me that on an exit basis via acquisition ZBD and Polatis (for example) as market leaders will be worth in excess of their current valuation, and maybe a lot more.

That's about all. In particular I'd like a fresh start with this thread. Let's look at the current portfolio and its prospects rather than the past. Besides, Oxford Immunotec, DisplayLink, M-Spatial, Siconnect - these are looking like bargains imo.

[hvs] 13/4/2007 07:41

That would be almost impossible.

[t0pgrader] 12/4/2007 23:32

RIV

Most helpful information - thanks.

As far as you are aware has anyone attempted a fair market valuation of the portfolio?

[greenleaf] 12/4/2007 22:50

Thanks rivaldo - the new thread is here: