 Took a lot from that video (thanks for the link) including the fact that volumetrics are unchanged in biogenic gas and now seems we have a unique structure in Morocco.....that's a relief cause everything else seems to be failing there. 470 bcf targeted in MOU 3 alone. Swabbing great and PG seems to think still biogenetic gas will at least fulfil CNG demand leaving MOU 5 for Moroccan gas to power and for Europe. Piped gas is better than LNG any day of the week for emissions. He did say the Maghreb pipeline could take 1 bcf per day...my head is dizzy with that great volume. Top and bottom of MOU 3 flowing but surprisingly not the fan. The bottom (TGB 6 sand) was the big part and the top was the bit given a 68% chance of flowing in the IPR.
Production starting in T and T this year . Big range in cash payback ($1.5 to $7m p.a.)
Hoping successor licenses are granted in Ireland while business is being closed ahead of the election. The Irish farm out depends on successor licenses being granted and are in line with the current regime.
Can you believe PG is going full pelt at MOU 5 without even a whiff of a farmout of that enormous structure. The Hassi R'Mel Gas Field is the largest gas field in Algeria and one of the largest gas fields in the world and provides 2% of the world helium market to boot. (Nice comparison for MOU 5).
Onshore world class structure a few kms from that pipeline. Hard to get better than that in upstream oil and gas and we have PG to thank for the opportunity. The cost of the drill is £2m less the released deposit of up to $1.18m
There is the threat of a small dilution if no farmout achieved anywhere. Who cares .. that is better than farming out on this extremely unique opportunity unless an oiler wants to pay proper money for a share. IMHO since MOU 4 hit the Jurassic, I personally view MOU 5 as an appraisal rather than an out and out wildcat.
Good luck to us all on this vast drill and enjoy the ride. |
What, you mean he can't blame the geology of what he's dealing with, the choices made by the drill team or the government's on 3 continents. It's all on him? |
PG only has himself to blame for this share price drift. |
mou3 takeaway for me was, the swabbing unit is needed to help maximise the mou3 flow to the cng project [before consideration of mou1, 2 and 4] |
I've been inputting the last 6 months rns's into chat gpt and based on the interview this morning, I asked the following: Would You Swab if There Were No Chance of Flow?Swabbing is only performed if there's an expectation that the well has the potential to flow, particularly after some form of intervention (e.g., perforation, stimulation, or damage repair). If the well was believed to have no potential to flow, swabbing wouldn't be a logical step because it would simply remove fluids without any prospect of inducing reservoir flow.Here's why: Reservoir Potential: If a reservoir has no hydrocarbons or if the formation damage is too severe, swabbing won't help establish flow. Operators usually perform swabbing when they believe there is enough reservoir pressure or recoverable hydrocarbons that could flow once the wellbore fluids are removed. Cost and Effort: Swabbing is an operational expense, and companies wouldn't spend resources on it if they believed there was no chance of flow. The fact that Predator is moving forward with swabbing indicates that they expect the well to produce, based on the results from the Sandjet perforation and pressure buildup. Post-Perforation Process: After successful perforation, it's common to swab a well to clean out fluids and help the formation "kick" (i.e., start flowing), especially if pressure buildup has been observed.Conclusion:Swabbing is a positive sign that Predator expects gas flow from MOU-3. It suggests that the Sandjet work was effective in connecting the well to the gas-bearing formation. If there were no chance of flow, they wouldn't proceed with swabbing. Therefore, this step indicates confidence in the well's potential to flow gas once the remaining fluids are cleared out. |
mou3, top and bottom of target intervals flowed [achieved 2 months of pressure monitoring], situation made difficult by inapprop drilling mud, the swabbing unit at mou3 potentially jan, same time as mou5 ops
additional equipt/services maybe required when swabbing unit has done its thing |
Delays are frustrating but why would you swab the well if there was no chance of gas flow.... Looks like q1 for updates |
thanks to firemansam, lse
interview -
waiting for swabbing unit for mou3 to clear out debris, the one unit in the country is seeing heavy usage by onhym, as best as i could make out mou5 is funded
end of nov to end of dec, t&t oil deliveries |
The force is strong here.
The death cross is in play:
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com
I can't believe this share.
So much is known by so many for so long and yet the share price falls.
I stick with my £58.90 target.
The rewards are ginormous.
Be careful. |
Treading water with zero direction. sellers between 8.5-9p buyers 8.5-9p |
Buys are picking up. |
This will help with research and was written 2 years ago but it does remind us of porosity and permeability in the biogenetic discoveries. |
Correct, sunny Jim
All you can do is research like hell to fully appreciate your risk and potential reward. Then assess your risk appetite and place your position size accordingly.
It isnt for widows and orphans. But the reward is potentially unique. |
Seems all of the companies operating in Morocco thought they hit the jackpot through drilling. Then to only disappoint. I hope PRD don't turn out to be the same. It all well stating Morocco are controlling the narrative, but theres no certainty that PRD have anything. High risk, high reward I guess. |
jasper13, lse, Political Hot Spot, Today 09:58
I think we can all agree that Morocco oil and gas exploration has now become a very political hot spot, with various companies at the table seeking their pounds worth of the action. Much focus and debate on this board has featured Chariot and particularly Anchois, rightly so, as it has been a core focus for ONHYM over the past few years. Let me give you some statements shared with me which may or may not prove to bare any credence, but nonetheless may get you thinking when considering what is now at play and stake.
- delays have not been caused by operational (other than lead times) or GEOLOGICAL, they are POLITICAL. (Predator)
- ONHYM have invested a lot of PR in Anchois over the past 2 years. (Chariot)
- it should have been flow tested before being classed as commercial. ONHYM did not agree. (Chariot)
- Energean deal then announced and a new well drilled to flow test before FID. (Chariot)
- can't use the two wells as producers. (Chariot)
- separate gas reservoirs were confirmed and need to be tested individually. (Chariot)
- operational and geological risk for next wells. (Chariot)
- pushes out development to first gas by many years. (Chariot)
- ONHYM 'egg on face' (Chariot)
- only near term gas development play (Predator)
- all regulatory leeway being put in place to allow immediate application for Exploitation Concession after testing (Predator)
- Afriquia Gas MOU game changing as part of a group owned by the Prime Minster (Predator)
- all eyes on making sure this doesn't repeat the Anchois PR disaster. (Predator)
So perhaps when you read all the FUD and scaremongering being discussed, just perhaps bear in mind some of the above. For Morocco this isn't just about a few BCF of gas here and there, this is about them as a nation becoming a global provider on the world's hydrocarbon stage. We are talking billions of $'s at stake, there is no room now to mess this up. PG has to now play the cards of his lifetimes work. He will be spinning many plates for sure. Why? Because he knows as do the ONHYM that Predator are sat on so much gas/oil they almost don't know what to do with it. Sure there is risk, and yes it has to flow.
I believe there is much going on behind the scenes that cannot be disclosed. Whether thats testing results, MOU5 planning, M&A activity, finalisation of contracts with Afriquia. One thing for sure it'll all be unveiled, and hopefully soon.
--
i thought it worth sharing over here, as always dyor
btw, i'm not jasper13
[edit] - to add on some history to the situation...
--
KeithOz, lse, RE: Political Hot Spot, Today 10:24
@Jasper - may I add to this. There have been issues with all the other Moroccan hopefuls, not just Chariot. I can use my new favourite emoji again.
😕 SDX, the only actual gas producer in the country, is in a slow death spiral brought on by the small puddles of gas that need constant new drilling, and the creeping takeover of Aleph. Doesn't look good after previous ONHYM support.
😕 Sound, after embarrassing declarations of vast amounts of gas years ago, has yet to produce anything, and has now been rescued by Managem - a mining, not an O & G company, that is owned by the Al Mada group, which just happens to be owned by the Moroccan royal family. There was clearly an instruction from above to save face, I suspect previous supporters at ONHYM were 'spoken to'.
😕 Europa, again backed by ONHYM, originally claimed to have 2TCF of gas in the Inizgane prospect, that was then reduced to 1TCF, then abandoned entirely by Europa.
😕😕😕 Let's not forget the Talsint affair, where Lone Star claimed to have found enough hydrocarbons to make Morocco self-sufficient. King Mohammed VI, newly on the throne, went on national TV to declare this great discovery would change Morocco's place on the world stage. There weren't any commercial hydrocarbons at Talsint, Lone Star were sued for fraud.
Hardly surprising that Predator & ONHYM are proceeding in a cautious and diligent manner, with independent validation of all results. |
detail?id=33 |
MOU-5 well potential https://smallcappix.com/blogdetail?id=33 |
Not really Hopeful,
I am convinced that there will be a serious uplift in the share price when farm outs (or sales) happen. As ever it's a question of when not if.
I am unable to comment on MOU1,3 and 4 except to say the recent departure of Lonny means something very wrong has happened which reduces my confidence there (incidentally the top of MOU3 should flow (IPR)) whatever else is happening. I sense that more investment might be needed to unlock the biogenetic gas which is why a farmout (with deferred consideration) may well happen.... to a local company.
The Green party is unlikely to feature in the new Irish Government as they had 7% or 8% of the electorate last time. That is just not going to recur in the oncoming Irish election.(see online poll of polls). Farmout of South Corrib is likely (imho). The Irish are not committed to long term LNG and imported Norwegian gas so indigenous gas with low scope 1 emissions is still plausible (sadly unlike the UK). Also no question Ireland needs gas storage so Shannon or Mag Mell or both. Why not reverse the interconnector from the UK as storage is still a problem for the UK. I like the way Kistos are making money from storage with 3 income streams one of which is buying at today's rates and selling at future rates.
Who knows what will happen in T and T but there is low hanging fruit there.
Then there is MOU5 the huge thermogenetic Jurassic (plus Helium)
Just to say PG can't go on forever with such a small team. Farm-outs/sales will help a lot and must happen sooner rather than later. PG must start cashing in on the PRD assets and think about a retirement (and a book). |
The force is strong here.
The same old trap.
Raise for flow testing of Mou-1, Mou-3 and Mou-4.
But no flow rates produced (yet).
Already posters are conditioned to move on to the ever larger Mou-5 with all that light, fluffy helium (I think it is lighter than methane and will sit on top).
Big numbers but no flow rate, I suspect.
Extrapolate to your heart's content.
£58.90.
Be careful. |
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