 jasper13, lse, Political Hot Spot, Today 09:58
I think we can all agree that Morocco oil and gas exploration has now become a very political hot spot, with various companies at the table seeking their pounds worth of the action. Much focus and debate on this board has featured Chariot and particularly Anchois, rightly so, as it has been a core focus for ONHYM over the past few years. Let me give you some statements shared with me which may or may not prove to bare any credence, but nonetheless may get you thinking when considering what is now at play and stake.
- delays have not been caused by operational (other than lead times) or GEOLOGICAL, they are POLITICAL. (Predator)
- ONHYM have invested a lot of PR in Anchois over the past 2 years. (Chariot)
- it should have been flow tested before being classed as commercial. ONHYM did not agree. (Chariot)
- Energean deal then announced and a new well drilled to flow test before FID. (Chariot)
- can't use the two wells as producers. (Chariot)
- separate gas reservoirs were confirmed and need to be tested individually. (Chariot)
- operational and geological risk for next wells. (Chariot)
- pushes out development to first gas by many years. (Chariot)
- ONHYM 'egg on face' (Chariot)
- only near term gas development play (Predator)
- all regulatory leeway being put in place to allow immediate application for Exploitation Concession after testing (Predator)
- Afriquia Gas MOU game changing as part of a group owned by the Prime Minster (Predator)
- all eyes on making sure this doesn't repeat the Anchois PR disaster. (Predator)
So perhaps when you read all the FUD and scaremongering being discussed, just perhaps bear in mind some of the above. For Morocco this isn't just about a few BCF of gas here and there, this is about them as a nation becoming a global provider on the world's hydrocarbon stage. We are talking billions of $'s at stake, there is no room now to mess this up. PG has to now play the cards of his lifetimes work. He will be spinning many plates for sure. Why? Because he knows as do the ONHYM that Predator are sat on so much gas/oil they almost don't know what to do with it. Sure there is risk, and yes it has to flow.
I believe there is much going on behind the scenes that cannot be disclosed. Whether thats testing results, MOU5 planning, M&A activity, finalisation of contracts with Afriquia. One thing for sure it'll all be unveiled, and hopefully soon.
--
i thought it worth sharing over here, as always dyor
btw, i'm not jasper13
[edit] - to add on some history to the situation...
--
KeithOz, lse, RE: Political Hot Spot, Today 10:24
@Jasper - may I add to this. There have been issues with all the other Moroccan hopefuls, not just Chariot. I can use my new favourite emoji again.
😕 SDX, the only actual gas producer in the country, is in a slow death spiral brought on by the small puddles of gas that need constant new drilling, and the creeping takeover of Aleph. Doesn't look good after previous ONHYM support.
😕 Sound, after embarrassing declarations of vast amounts of gas years ago, has yet to produce anything, and has now been rescued by Managem - a mining, not an O & G company, that is owned by the Al Mada group, which just happens to be owned by the Moroccan royal family. There was clearly an instruction from above to save face, I suspect previous supporters at ONHYM were 'spoken to'.
😕 Europa, again backed by ONHYM, originally claimed to have 2TCF of gas in the Inizgane prospect, that was then reduced to 1TCF, then abandoned entirely by Europa.
😕😕😕 Let's not forget the Talsint affair, where Lone Star claimed to have found enough hydrocarbons to make Morocco self-sufficient. King Mohammed VI, newly on the throne, went on national TV to declare this great discovery would change Morocco's place on the world stage. There weren't any commercial hydrocarbons at Talsint, Lone Star were sued for fraud.
Hardly surprising that Predator & ONHYM are proceeding in a cautious and diligent manner, with independent validation of all results. |
The force is strong here.
The myth of helium.
"Seven gas samples collected in isotubes in MOU-3 whilst drilling at measured depths of 446, 508, 555, 750, 817, 846 and 1395 metres were analysed by Applied Petroleum Technology (UK) Ltd. ("APT") in their Oslo laboratory. Gas composition is in the range 98.04 to 99.57% methane"
"The gas sample analysed at 1395 metres MD KB in the Moulouya Fan in MOU-3, unlike any other shallower gas sample collected whilst drilling, showed evidence for the presence of helium"
Seven gas samples and only one showed the presence of helium.
But helium is a "light" gas and hasn't managed to migrate upwards.
Some experts were opining that all the helium would be updip, it being lighter, but no evidence of helium being upwardly mobile in Mou-3.
So the maximum percentage of helium in Mou-3 is 1.96% (if all the non methane gas is helium) but only evidence of helium was announced, not a percentage.
Move on to Mou-5 and 104.31 BCF(P50) of helium is envisaged as 1.76% of 5.916 TCF (P50) of methane.
Based on global averages.
Not on Mou-3 sampling.
Bear in mind the "evidence of helium" sample could have been nearer the 0.43% mark.
And ignore that no evidence of helium was announced for the other six samples from the same well.
Any straw in a storm.
Despite the lack of flow rate news and no evidence of uplift in share price of share volume, I am rerating my target price to £58.90 allowing for the spiffing news about helium potential.
Be careful. |
Register for real-time alerts, custom portfolio, and market movers
Hot Features
Premium
