TW is a tosspot with zero credibility. He and his little friends who post on lse (and maybe here as well) have taken out leveraged short positions on PRD. They then get their subscribers to do the same, and post critical (and untrue) claims on the bbs under the cover of assumed names. Quite possibility Helpless is in on it as well. |
re. size calculations, I put this on lse:
"For those who are unsure of how these numbers have been derived, Scorpion calculate the potential volume, based on size / porosity /charge / pressure from being underground, etc. This gives a high / medium / low estimate - P50 means that they think this is the number which they think there is a 50% chance of being within the structure. This is the unrisked number. That is then risked. To do this, they look at 5 factors - source / migration / reservoir / trap / charge - and assign a score for each. Those scores are multiplied to come up with an overall gcos. If it was risk-free, it would be 100%, which is what it would become in the case of an actual discovery. Scorpion have assigned 12% gcos, and come up with 6 TCF. 100/12 = 8.3. 6 x 8.3 = near enough 50 TCF in a success case."
We then have to remember that this number represents just PRD's 75% share, so the total unrisked P50 is 67 TCF. |
Thanks for explaining MP
Now see where you're coming from, but not sure I agree with the assumption. Mainly because I want to temper my enthusiasm and not get too excited! Lol
Time will tell I guess. Exciting times while we wait.. |
mariopeter,
I think you're vastly overestimating the size of the structure.
"An updated Independent Technical Report by Scorpion Geoscience Limited for the Jurassic MOU-5 structure gives net P50 upside Prospective Resources for gas of 5.916 TCF to the Company, with a conservative risking of 12% versus the Company's internal upside Chance of Success of 50%."
The P50 upside is unrisked. That's how it's upside, otherwise it would be risked resources.
Upside is what you get if fate smiles on you i.e. you get 100% rather than 0%. So the 12% is their current estimate of the chances of getting 100% vs 0%. (Roughly speaking anyway.) |
See that 600 mmbo target JH. Pantheon have done really well in last couple of weeks. |
Mariopeter Megrez-1 well |
I'll just leave this here for anyone giving that analysis any credibility...https://www.guerillainvesting.co.uk/2020/09/22/shareprophets-the-stinky-pete-scandal/ |
Meantime back to MOU3 and the rest of the fan. My figures are:
35 mmcf/day generates profit of $60m or £47m per year
50 mmcfd generates profit $120m or £94m
Exxon's p/e ratio is 12 and we have 570m shares in issue. Oh yes and ignore tax cause it's diddly.
This is CNG only. |
Funny man Cranky !! Liked that. |
Yes I was been facetious , and I appreciate that it's not just down to share price. |
Some folk will continue to think that it is too good to be true whilst watching the share price rise towards £10. Then, when it is proven that it is true, they will need to pay in excess of £10 per share. And all of this will happen before Christmas. 2024. |
Or maybe you're right after all. The numbers are truly off the scale in that case. |
If 12% of something is 6, what is 100% of something? |
Yes Divmad. |
Just to say MOU 5 is an appraisal well not a wildcat as DISCOVERED at the bottom of the MOU 4 drill.
MOU 5 is the biggest drill I think anywhere in the world in 2024.
Chariot found 1TCF offshore which will cost hundreds of millions before first gas in several year's time
PRD Onshore drill costing cc £1m a pop and would need a short(but big capacity) pipeline to connect up to the grid. Could indeed be very fast.
Never did get a report back on the field trip to the Jurassic outcrop but MOU 4 testing will give a huge insight on flows. Permeability and porosity will hopefully be as good as the fan.
Interesting they hope to see the fan in MOU 5 as well. |
It is not the share price that absolutely matters in valuation terms. It is the market capitalisation of the company which partly determines the "value". You can have a £100 a share but it is capitalised less because of the fewer number of shares in issue. |
Er, you have just multiplied the COS inverted! |
No it's not, the share price of gex is approx 16p, the share price in PRD is .10.5p.. the bargains here. Don't miss the booooommm!! |
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