 Share prices go up and down, often unpredictably. Undeveloped resources may or may not be commercialized, or not in the expected quantities or at the hoped for profitability. These are all well-known risks.
Market makers do not 'play games' or 'manipulate prices', as is frequently claimed here. MMs use algorithms to maintain a balanced book and maximise trading volume - that is how they make a profit. There are no malevolent dwarves trying to steal shares away from naïve private investors. Yesterday's sub-penny drop in low volume is irrelevant in the scheme of things, especially after a substantial rise over a short period of above-average volumes. Of course the usual suspects emerge from the woodwork proclaiming doom. I do not know if they are short term traders hoping to buy cheap, or even paid by someone else so that their masters can buy more cheaply. Whatever, it is also irrelevant - just remember that they are promoting their own interests, that may well be the opposite of yours.
Something that is worth concentrating upon is the effects on the value of PRD's assets due to the staged removal of risk. Lionel Therond is one of the most respected analysts working in the oil & gas sector. He was the author of the Fox Davies Capital note issued on 13th July 2023. here it is:
[...]
He calculates that the unrisked NPV10 of the MOU-Fan & Middle Sands is $1176.4M. That is their value today, assuming that 1/. They are producing commercially as planned, and 2/. The cash flows are reduced at a compound annual rate of 10%, to account for the time value of money. How do we get to 'unrisked'?
* Produce combined flow rates at or in excess of 50mmcfgd from around 150m of reservoir intervals. As you know that de-risking events will be in two phases - the first finished this month, the second next month.
* Agree a commercial contract with a suitable gas distributor. Again, as you know, the main terms have already been negotiated with Afriquia Gaz, the largest distributor in the country, that happens to be owned by Morocco's PM.
* Set up the CNG operation - once again, you already know that the money is there to do this.
* Secure an Exploitation Concession - PRD have said they should be ready to apply for this early next month, and given the influence of their partner and the urgent desire to produce indigenous gas, this should be granted rapidly.
Removal of these risks gives an NPV10 of £922M at fx rate of 1 : 1.275. With 565.2M shares in issue, that is £1.63p per share. Just for MOU-Fan & Middle sands. No Jurassic, no 'running room', no Ireland, no T & T.
By end of next month. |
Great. Let's do that. |
that question needs some more research from me.lets throw some ideas around and come up with a target figure so we all know what to look out for. |
ill certainly be piling in on the bell on a good result.it would run up for days.gl |
They seem extremely confident on success so we should expect multiples of the current price |
Great prediction purple. Nobody else predicted that the share price would run up when testing began. Congratulations on a great call. |
Yes. Let us hope all that lovely oil flows, eh purple? Just out of interest, what oil flow rate would bring you back into Predator Oil? |
all now on testing results
im never in for results in oil so ill leave you to it now.
plenty of time to get in on a good result and run with it up gl |
zico
so the stock did rally into testing 8.8 TO 14p
good call atb |
zico
so the stock did rally 8.7 to 14p
good call atb |
The force is strong here.
I would have preferred a 13p close today.
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com
There is a support/resistance line at 13p, as there was at 12p.
There is a support/resistance line at 14p, but nothing until 16p.
The slow rise will give the moving averages time to catch the share price up and provide a good base further down the line.
After the 21p target the resistance starts to disappear.
All good news for the £42 club.
Be careful. |
In all seriousness, just where is pro? Getting a little bit concerned, even though i don't know him from Adam, or Abdul. Seems to have stopped posting and tweeting around the time HE1 took a dive. |
Very happy with this little pull back. This follows a pattern when the prd price is in on the way up. Fortunately, this time, we are not going to have a placing to put the brakes on.
Would be surprised if we do not break 15p tomorrow.
Exciting times! |
The force is strong here.
FWIW.
hxxps://www.agenceecofin.com/exploration/3001-115717-maroc-predator-oil-and-gas-annonce-de-nouvelles-avancees-dans-ses-operations-de-prospections-petrogazieres
"The study, conducted by Scorpion Geoscience Ltd., estimates net contingent and prospective gas resources ranging from 109 to 234 billion cubic feet (BCF) for the former, and from 139 to 312 BCF for the latter. Based on these estimates, Scorpion Geoscience delivers a compressed natural gas (CNG) development scenario for the Moroccan industrial market.
This, with a production profile of 20 million cubic feet per day for a 6-year term for a net present value (NPV) of US$128.08 million and an internal rate of return (IRR) of 138%.
In addition, Predator has announced that it has a plan for a non-device testing program. The operation is expected to last two weeks and is expected to start from Monday, January 29".
Be careful. |
The force is strong here.
FWIW
hxxps://lanouvelletribune.info/2024/01/hydrocarbures-au-maghreb-des-projets-en-vue-dans-ce-pays/
"On Friday 26 January, Predator Oil and Gas confirmed the presence of good potential at Guercif. Prospecting suggests 139 to 312 billion cubic feet. According to our colleagues at the Ecofin agency, this vein is capable of producing 20 million cubic feet per day for a period of 6 years for a value of $128.08 million. For some time now, Morocco has launched an ambitious project to diversify its economy".
"These different deadlines will allow the Maghreb country to benefit from many economic benefits. The first authorities are pulling out all the stops to properly coordinate the flows of capital that will soon converge in the state coffers. As a result, many investors are converging on the Cherifian kingdom.The Maghreb has enormous potential that is just waiting to be exploited. The different nations in this part of Africa are each developing their own strategy to reap economic dividends. The aim is to build up a range of opportunities to propel the economy into a new sphere".
Be careful |
Nothing much to say for now. Am sure it will get very busy within the next couple of weeks though...... |
Very quiet here but nice to see a bit of blue after the red start. |
I looked up the latest expert firm. A small and new company with the website in development. The last report is easily amended after flows and quick enough for the data room when we exit Morocco. PG probably got a nice but fair deal on the report . That aside, the IPR brought volume expectations back to planet earth (but I don't believe them as it's a corporate takeover defence mechanism!!) |
Morning all
Looks like an upward channel forming on the chart
I'm still trying to understand the reason s why the ITR was issued, surely would have been prudent to conserve cash and commission a report once flow tested
BWDIK |
The force is strong here.
OK. Couldn't resist a chart.
Those Doubting Thomases look away now:
free stock charts from uk.advfn.com
The resistance at 12p has finally been overcome.
The next support/resistance is 16p and that is the immediate target.
There are trendlines for the 15 day, 45 day and 100 day moving averages forming.
Further out 24p is still the target.
Be careful. |
Trending strong, traders selling not learning that the MMs will not let them in cheaper |
Just to say they need to test one sand at two locations to see if there is a connection. Extract at A and a fall in pressure at B means they are connected. Only need 3mmmcf/day for success case. |
Rocketing, will be a very interesting week! Hold on! |
Dave, I think your logic is correct, but I also think that they won't announce any results until they are all in.
We may know if someone gets a whiff of gas, though. |
This moves relatively quickly. |
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