 @mariopeter - I posted this on the lse board overnight re. Jurassic. Any ideas?
"I would welcome your thoughts on exactly what might have been drilled towards the bottom of MOU-4. The RNSs of 11th & 13th July do not appear to give us the whole story.
11/7: "The top Jurassic carbonate objective was reached at 1135 metres TVD MD, 253 metres deeper than the estimated depth pre-drill based on no well control. A thick section of 175 metres of claystones capped the Jurassic carbonate section " and
"The speculative pre-drill Jurassic carbonate horizon has now been validated in MOU-4. Seismic remapping and evaluation of the Jurassic using the new MOU-4 well control point and data yet to be analysed from the well will be required to further de-risk the Jurassic objective."
13/7: [NuTech analysis shows likely gas sands at] "1139 to 1143 metres TVD MD, including the top of the Jurassic carbonates. 2 metres of likely gas reservoir with average porosity 19.9% (maximum 20.6%) and average gas saturation 56% (maximum 73%)."
Then on 30th August we were told: "A field trip is being planned for the autumn to evaluate the reservoir potential of the entire interval of interest in Jurassic surface exposures to the south of the Guercif licence area. Geochemical source rock quality and maturation studies, including evidence for migrated gas, for the Jurassic section penetrated in the MOU-4 well are expected to be completed in September."
So we know that at least 175m of claystones, plus 4m of other strata which includes 2m identified by NuTech as gas charged, giving a minimum of 179m Jurassic, has been drilled. Importantly, what we don't know is the TD for MOU-4. If MOU-4 was drilled deeper than the originally stated target of the Jurassic carbonate reef, apparently found at 1143m, maybe it encountered further interesting Jurassic sections, and it is these that are being evaluated as oil/NGL source rocks.
I was a little puzzled by the 12th January RNS mention of "MOU-4: Thin Jurassic dolomitic reservoirs" as intervals for Phase 2 testing. Does this mean that the original Jurassic carbonate reef structure is dolomitised? Or is reference being made to a different structure - either within the 175m of claystones above the target, or strata drilled at an unknown depth beneath the reef?
It makes no sense to be evaluating a gas-bearing stratum for its potential to be an oil source rock, so I assume they must be talking about something deeper. It is also clear that the Jurassic TWT maps in the August 2023 CPR need to be completely redrawn, possibly after further seismic reprocessing. I am curious if this will be addressed in the forthcoming MOU-area ITR, or whether they need more time to integrate:
*updated Jurassic seismic
*incorporation of MOU-4 Jurassic petrology
*results of Jurassic field mapping.
Additionally, Cube has stated that HSSI indicates oil & NGLs at MOU-NE.
It is too early to be making speculative calculations as to what MOU-NE might hold. |
So purple are you in or out atm? |
The Opportunity
FD today provided an update to their research note on PRD and reiterated "35p target price"
lets look at the detail...
the basis of FD 35p target share price is based on Risked NAV 37.6p ....
MOU fan 294.8BCF /$146.3m
Middle sands 319.5BCF/$72.2m
Jurassic Nutech (2m) 36.3BCF/5.5m
Total 650.6BCF/$223.9m/37.6p "risked"
Now the interesting bit..... unrisked...
so testing, 2 phases...
Ph1 due to commence in approx weeks time, ph2 there after..
What is 650BCF worth once flow tested ????
a staggering $1242m/208.6p
you can buy today for 12p
on top of their unrisked upside on a succesful flow test FD commented on the potential upside to the Jurassic, which we have potential drilling to follow the 2phases of testing...
they estimate the following...
126skm structure
RF 80%
20m net sand
605BCF GIIP
484BCF recoverable
As they rightly state 20m could be low as we are
hunting for 200m, but even so they offer further upside of $590m or 99p, with 360BCF net to PRD
making a total price target unrisked of 307.6p
based on the info to date, one could argue there is more than 650BCF net to the company which offers further upside..
"The opportunity"
208.6p on successful flow test to prove up 650BCF net "fully funded" to commence in a week
307.6p on appraising the Jurassic and finding 20m net sand, 10% of the estimated gross reservoir.."fully funded" to commence after testing April/May
T&T
Ireland
in for free
Link to FD note via LinkedIn |
Agree Nic SCAP were with them up until half an hour ago, so hopefully some after hour trades to follow :-) |
PLHC have mopped up loads of selling today....
gla |
You said you were spurring debate. Do you mean puff from the magic dragon? |
run out of puff. i v much doubt itll run much higher before results |
Should break 12p soon! |
Yup good day ...
Looks ready to move up now from 10.75 - 11.30 |
Great start for PRD today. |
Hopefully we see 14p by end of January. Gla |
Another gap to close on chart to 13.75. |
pro wont be around
he blew his account. |
Looks good for 12p + today |
ok im in with 100k lets see if theres any fizz before results
only looking for a 20%gain gl |
Morning all
Wealready know the Nearby basin flowed @ 1mmcfd from just a thin 1m sand
We know PRD have thicker sands ,over pressurised and high porosity 25%
Potential sands found to date over 150m
We need 50mmcfgpd for CNG
We also have drilling planned in 4 wells
Remember Mou2 was the sweet spot with 120m sand expected and a 1 in 10 chance of 1000ft sands |
The results are most likely be better than expectations:
MOU-3 has demonstrated the possible continuity, subject to rigless testing results and a future infill well, of gas sands penetrated in MOU-1 with similar sands encountered in MOU-3. In particular the Ma Sand potential has been enhanced over a wider area with the possibility of a larger gas trap being effectively sealed covering up to 58km(2).
The shallow gas potential of MOU-3 has exceeded all pre-drill expectations.
>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>>> 40p |
2p on a bad result |
20p to 40p upon better than expected flow rates.
:) |
so the cap may reach 90-120m on a successful flow test....20p
not even a four bagger...a one bagger
not that exciting really and plenty of time to get in risk free and ride it up if it comes in. |
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