RD -- You must be as old as me - lol - but our old wind up pal ngms is older !!
I gave him credit many many moons ago for being the best wind up merchant on ADVFN but
the very last guy to invite to a happy party.
westmoreland lad - 27 Sep 2021 - 14:24:39 - 182 of 231 Savannah Energy - SAVE
having another happy day jonny ( ngms ) ? |
Anybody know how long testing mou3 will take? I read anywhere between 2 days and 10 days..... |
It smells like the classic Jonny playbook. |
Hope so. But until they confirm testing then confirm commercial via RNS share price won't react positively, especially if the overhang still needs to clear. |
westmoreland lad,
When you've been here this long you sort of get a 6th sense.
Could be totally wrong of course :-) |
OAP
3.8 holes in the ground and a great many, some differing, sands. Risk reduction there. |
RD -- If you are asking if its JonnyT , I would suggest probably. |
Is that you Jonny ? |
Now I completely understand your avatar.. |
Until testing proves this commercial it remains a £61,875,229.68 hole in the ground. |
US inflation data not too bad today. No October meltdown. |
10.81 v 10.92
? |
PG has never been worried about flows and just not got round to them but instead prioritising volume and discovery. The CPR shows why he is not particularly worried. He knows he can drill more if he offtakes the cng gas and that is where he is now pointed. He loves the drill bit but flows now the priority as the recent visit to the City was cruel because flows were not done. imho.
That outcrop investigation must have been good if he is still keen to crack on with the drill bit. |
Paul Griffith sounds very confident! |
 KeithOz
You need quality as well as quantity.Today 01:50
Part 1.
GRH has previously pointed out the vast volume of rock (much of it of Jurassic age) that has been potentially exposed to gas & oil migration, and Wacky has given us a calculation suggesting that up to 90 TCF of gas may be present. In order that investors come to their own conclusions, perhaps it would help if we had a brief recap of the factors that need to be present in order to get an economic hydrocarbon (h/c) deposit.
When you see a geological chance of success (gcos) calculated in a CPR, this is determined by multiplying together the %age chance of the following being in place: h/c source; migration pathway; suitable reservoir rock; a structural trap; and a seal.
For the Guercif Jurassic, we know that rock rich in organic matter has sunk to a sufficient depth to be cooked into both oil & gas (remember the geothermal gradient map I linked on X). This was then uplifted again by tectonic action (twice), which also caused extensive faulting that allowed gas to migrate upwards when the Guercif region was squashed between moving tectonic plates (several times). We also know that at the top of the Jurassic sequence, there are thick layers of fine-grained marl and siltstones which act as a seal - confirmed by gas still being in place at MOU-4. This leaves us with the need for suitable reservoir rock and a structural trap, and this is where it gets tricky.
Reservoirs first. Much of the huge thickness of Jurassic rocks to the E & SE of Guercif town consists of massive limestone, which normally has low porosity & permeability. This will only become reservoir material if extensively fractured, so far I have not seen evidence that this is the case. This will reduce the available volumes considerably. The MOU-NE target is an ancient reef structure – you all know what coral reefs look like, they are full of holes of all shapes and sizes, so once buried make excellent h/c reservoirs. They get even better when exposed to weathering – the holes get bigger and better connected – the 'enhanced porosity development' referred to in past RNSs. The third kind of limestone is Dolomite, which has been chemically altered over time, often causing high porosity & permeability. It is estimated that 80% of all h/c deposits are in reefs, dolomites & fractured limestones, so this is what PRD are looking for in the current field trip. Once they have a good idea of where such potential reservoirs occur in the rock sequence, it will help clarify the seismic readings, and optimise drill positioning.
Part 2.
Traps are of three main kinds – anticlines (inverted pudding basin), tilted fault blocks, and diapirs (not to be confused with diapers). The first two are present across some of the Guercif licences, but most definitely not all, which will greatly reduce the volume potential. Diapirs – underlying the Jurassic is a thick layer of Triassic salt. This acts like a viscous liquid – it is less dense than the overlying rock and over millions of years will rise towards the surface forming underground salt domes and walls. H/cs become trapped against these impervious domes – this is the most common trap style in the Gulf of Mexico, where as you know, there is an awful lot of h/cs. Some of us have strong suspicions that there are many of these in the Guercif region. They can be identified by low gravity readings, as well as HSSI data.
I suspect that GRH has HSSI & other data indicating h/cs over much of the Guercif region including the area of buried & outcropping Jurassic – unfortunately this does not clearly indicate depth, so a strong reading will not differentiate between near-surface Neogene (MOU-Fan & Middle Sands), deeper Jurassic such as MOU-NE, or underlying Triassic, which is the main h/c source across North Africa. Graham – please correct me if I am wrong here.
One final point of possible confusion over the recent volumetric calculations: in the 11th July RNS, it said "The top Jurassic carbonate objective was reached at 1135 metres TVD MD". I am sure that the depth reference here was not to the top of the Jurassic, but to the top of the MOU-NE target, (the Jurassic carbonate objective) which is in fact towards the base of the Lower Jurassic.
So, 90 TCF in the Jurassic? – I think unlikely, since much of this rock volume does not have suitable reservoir characteristics nor trapping geometry. 90 TCF including the deeper strata? Just possible, but a lot more work needs to be done, and this will be by a company with a lot more than three staff, and a much bigger bank balance than £10M. |
Predator in Talks for Gas Offtake on Moroccan Asset
by Rocky Teodoro|Rigzone Staff|Tuesday, October 10, 2023
Predator in Talks for Gas Offtake on Moroccan Asset
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc has entered exploratory discussions to potentially sell its share of gas produced at the Guercif Compressed Natural Gas project.
Predator Oil & Gas Holdings Plc has entered exploratory discussions with an undisclosed group focused on the downstream energy business to potentially sell its share of gas produced at the Guercif Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) project wellhead, subject to an approved CNG development plan.
Jersey-based Predator is the operator of the Guercif Petroleum Agreement onshore Morocco, which is prospective for Tertiary gas less than 6.2 miles (10 kilometers) from the Maghreb gas pipeline.
Predator said in a news release that it plans to amend its rigless testing program, in a bid to accelerate the timing of negotiations for the sale of its share of gas, subject to an approved Declaration of Commerciality. The company will test the MOU-3 well first to establish the potential to maximize gas flow rates, targeting to set commercial parameters.
Due to a delay in the provision of a third-party service for its Sandjet testing program, Predator said it will instead test the MOU-3 and MOU-1 wells using conventional perforating guns. The rig-less testing for MOU-3 is expected to begin on or before October 16, the company said, adding that a follow-up Sandjet testing program will take place later “to test other reservoir intervals that are likely to respond better to the Sandjet perforating technique compared to conventional perforating guns”.
Predator said it is confident that the testing program will deliver the results necessary to progress commercial negotiations for the offtake of its share of future potential CNG gas from the wellhead.
Further, Predator said it is also in discussion with “several parties” regarding the financing of the CNG development. The company’s funds will be repurposed for follow-up appraisal drilling upon “achieving acceptable financial terms”, Predator added.
"Following the completion of drilling and prior to the execution of the rig-less testing program, the company has had a period of time to integrate the results from its MOU-1, MOU-2, MOU-3, and MOU-4 wells and mature its understanding of the structures holding possible gas accumulations”, Predator Executive Chairman Paul Griffiths said. “On this basis, the MOU-3 well and structure is now defined as the focal point for a potential CNG development hub. As a result, this well has been promoted to the first well in the rig-less testing program”.
“Good progress has been made on opening discussions for the offtake of gas on a larger scale than was previously envisaged by the ‘Proof of CNG Pilot Concept’ strategy’”, Griffiths added. “Financing options are being crystallized which will allow funds to be re-purposed for further appraisal drilling activity and value accretion through drilling success."
In September, Predator reported $2.9 million (GBP 2.36 million) in operating loss for the first half of 2023, compared to a loss of $738,000 (GBP 600,000) for the six months ended June 2022. The increase in operating loss is mostly attributable to increased drilling activity in Morocco, which is deemed vital to adding potential gas resources and ultimately creating shareholder value, it said in an earlier earnings statement.
Predator in the statement noted that CNG offers a simpler solution to deliver gas to dispersed industrial users compared to investing in pipeline infrastructure, which “requires more fixed capital investment, takes longer to construct due to requirements for environmental approvals and land permitting, and necessitates initially deploying more risk capital for drilling”. In contrast, CNG is a flexible and scalable development where additional capital expenditure can be funded organically and proportionally “given Morocco's very favorable fiscal regime”, Predator said. |
Biggest tool in the box=choke ?
Testing underway. |
Kq1,
Thank you. |
Increased my holding yesterday |
@Nametrade. Here is a downloadable paper by Bernini et al, 1994.
hxxps://www.researchgate.net/publication/46603074_The_Neogene_Taza-Guercif_Basin
Figs 4, 5 & 7 show the position of TAF-1X and the sequences penetrated. My view is that it was drilled in the wrong position. The structural trap is poor, and the Jurassic did not have any carbonate reef. Since MOU-NE is both updip and higher in altitude than TAF-1X, which had minor gas shows, I would expect that PRD will find substantially more gas there. The lowest point of MOU-NE had gas shows in excellent reservoir, so that confirms that a seal is in place. |
The force is strong here.
I saw a documentary on the Messiah once.
Instead of an old screwdriver there was a sandal.
Or was it a shoe?
Or a slipper?
It was none of these.
It was a sign.
Brian knows. Ask him.
Be careful. |
Wrtmf… sorry doing the school run.
I think it’s trying to say that the structure that the TAF-1x well is drilled in is a bigger structure than the current Jurassic structure that MOU4 has intersected…
Also that it might have better porosity/characteristics in other areas of the structure so it might perform better than expected..
just my initial take.. |
keith:
"Translation: TAF-1X was the deepest & second oldest well drilled at Guercif, by Phillips in 1979. The only one to go through the Jurassic & into the Triassic. Some gas shows indicate regional potential, but placement was poor - small structure, not carbonate reef, porosity only 9%. PRD will do a lot better with the next one."
--
that's ok nametrade |
So what is your interpretation nametrade? |
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