Poolbeg Pharma Share Discussion Threads

[ali47fish] 12/2/2024 07:34

great rns today wakie wakie

[1gw] 10/2/2024 11:00

And since it's the weekend, just to expand on the theme of "swings and roundabouts" in biotech, here's a chart with the same time interval and my own main biotech holding added, SLN (in green), alongside POLB in black and IBB in red. SLN has been quite the ride, while ending up in broadly the same place as POLB and IBB over this period. One reason I like biotech is the opportunity to profit from the volatility. But just to show the other side, I've added NVAX (sadly, another of my holdings) to illustrate that sometimes they don't come back (at least not over this time interval). Individual biotech stocks are definitely not for the risk averse (imo).


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[supernumerary] 09/2/2024 21:10

Thanks for that - it looks to me like polb has more or less tracked the indexes with a chunk of volatility thrown in. A pretty good performance for a small bio and ideal for the traders because the downside of a bad trade doesn't look too dangerous.

I'm not sure, it was a while ago I looked at this stuff (in a completely different context) but there's at least one UK pharma index - this is the updated version of the one I stuck in my bookmarks at the time:

I don't think these comparators between stocks make much sense without a baseline of some sort.

[1gw] 09/2/2024 16:51

POLB in black against 2 US biotech indexes (rebased), XBI in blue and IBB in green from 19th July 2021 when POLB started trading.

Seems like a good fit to XBI for the first year, but over the period has finished up closer to IBB, although obviously more volatile being a single stock. Not sure you can deduce much from this other than despite individual stories, there tends to be a lot of swings and roundabouts in biotech (as in some other sectors). In 2H2022 in particular POLB seems to have been all over the place relative to XBI and IBB.


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[klosters65] 09/2/2024 14:14

Are they having a good lunch in Dublin ? A few buys at 2.00pm.

[troutisout] 08/2/2024 21:18

Ergomed hasn't really moved more than 2 p either way, REDX shot up and then has beaten a downward path, SBTX looked to be following the same path but kept going down and SCLP followed them the furthest but decoupled the second half of last year.

[troutisout] 08/2/2024 20:45

I haven't got an index for what you are asking, so how about some companies? You must have some in mind that would be peers to HVO or POLB (as you point out they are very different beasts).
I have tried one down below but really not sure whether any of these are real peers or whether there are more suitable companies, but here we go...


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[troutisout] 08/2/2024 17:30

supernumeracy, you give me the index epic and I will attempt to overlay it.

[troutisout] 08/2/2024 11:38

They know POLB001 will be a game changer, I do think they will have to conduct a human study for it's effects on CRS in oncology patients before they will get best price for it though.

[inaminute] 08/2/2024 09:57

Very good confidence inspiring interview. Not sure what to make of progress on 001 from that though. Any thoughts?

[muchodinero] 08/2/2024 08:37

Great interview as well as Laura being interviewed yesterday. The share price at 9p seems ridiculously low considering how much work has been done since the IPO nearly 3 years ago. Will be an interesting 2024 I think. JMO Adyor

[burtond1] 08/2/2024 06:32

Is the Dream Team now in place for Poolbeg Pharma ask @TMSreach "...Amryt was a fantastic journey and story. We helped numerous patients worldwide, and the value creation followed and that's what we're going to do with Poolbeg..."https://total-market-solutions.com/2024/02/poolbeg-pharma-plc-copy/

[supernumerary] 07/2/2024 23:52

Add the index and it will be a lot clearer what's actually happening.

The only person I can remember commenting on a pattern of cross-trading is stt, who's about as clueless on that as he is on everything else.

[troutisout] 07/2/2024 23:27

50% of the share issue of POLB was owned by the shareholders of HVO, many sold their POLB shares many doubled down and bought more. I try and buy a bit of both every month to average in to a large holding, but some times when there is a disparity I favour the underdog and it seems to have worked up to now...
I am sure there may be a slight correlation to other pharma stocks, but not as closely aligned as these two are.
I have seen others mention profits from one flowing into the other on these BBs if others are thinking that then perhaps there is something to that?

Pink lines show when POLB got ahead of HVO and when it caught up, green lines when HVO went ahead of POLB. It's a pattern that has happened many times and so unlikely to be just pure coincidence.


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[supernumerary] 07/2/2024 22:40

Two fundamentally different businesses - absolutely no reason they should track each other. One is a 'picks and shovels' type of business that serves mostly big pharma, the other is an entirely speculative minnow that's dependent on making bleeding edge breakthroughs. Their history gave them a connection, but that must be severed by now.

It might be interesting to add a small pharma index, preferably UK-based if there is one, to show how each compares to an independent variable.

[troutisout] 07/2/2024 18:54

We have all seen the great rise in HVO over the last 7 months, starting with contract wins in late June and July, then the positive trading update at the end of July and of course, what was the start of Institutional buying.
Before that POLB mirrored HVO quite closely, deviating a little every now and then and then one or the other adjusting back.
POLB showed the way in late Summer/Autumn 2022 with HVO mirroring the moves several weeks later.
Then HVO leapt ahead of POLB in the late Summer/Autumn 2023, but the news of the Amryt team joining propelled POLB back up there again in November. As we went into the Christmas period and the New Year HVO has hit the rocket boosters with more contract wins and a really good TU. POLB has dithered and dropped slightly.
I don't think the relationship between the two has broken (although the II buying in HVO will have diluted the relationship where many of the holders of HVO also held POLB). So we wait to see if POLB catches up again, it certainly looks a few weeks behind but the correlation has been strong up to now....

POLB black, HVO Blue, HVO overlaid on POLB from the first day of POLB trading


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[inaminute] 07/2/2024 12:05

Yes just do not recall seeing anyone so obviously reading pre prepared answers off the screen.Anyway I wish her well in her new job and hope the team can replicate their previous success

[troutisout] 07/2/2024 09:21

Isn't that the same with every Proactive interview? When the Company are paying for it, it is always going to be pleasant ride for the interviewee.
TBH some will want the Company to be 'proactive' and introduce staff through these type of interviews, others really don't see the point. I tend to be in the latter bracket, I don't need to hear her CV when a bit of research will find all of that.
Hopefully she is busy finalising the POLB001 study for CRS in cancer patients, not an easy thing to do, because there aren't going to be that many people available and suitable to take part.

[inaminute] 07/2/2024 08:27

No suggestion she agreed those questions in advance ;D

[burtond1] 07/2/2024 08:22

Worth a watch...This morning's interview introducing Laura Maher, the #POLB VP of Clinical Operations:https://twitter.com/PoolbegPharma/status/1755133379857567838

[troutisout] 06/2/2024 16:50

Last count at 16.45pm is 1,388,538 Buys and 772,008 Sells today.

[troutisout] 06/2/2024 11:30

The 224k in the ? column was a buy, the 11k and 178k in the sell column were buys, the rest of the sell column were sells or you could sell at that price at the time.
I have added more today so have been watching the trading spread like a hawk this morning, all done now so going to get some other things done, but at the time of my post I believe the figures to be all correct.

[klosters65] 06/2/2024 11:22

trout if you look carefully at the timing of the transactions, I think you'll find your Sales are in fact Buys.

[troutisout] 06/2/2024 11:00

Roughly 1.1m buys against 630k sells, with the trades in the right place and the delayed trade to report in 20 minutes. Are we going back up to 10p levels (the double digit ceiling)?

[troutisout] 06/2/2024 10:41

Chart looks ripe for a breakout, is that an inverse head and shoulders formed?


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