Polymetal Share Discussion Threads

[plat hunter] 21/7/2022 10:59

I wen't short here at 1050 Tiger into 200 and again at 250, do crack on you fruit loop.This is going the same way as pog... Bye bye's

[tigerbythetail] 21/7/2022 10:43

Spacedust - yes, Ukraine is slowly winning the war. Russian logistics are collapsing.
The strong ruble is a problem for POLY. Their revenues are in dollars (gold is ultimately sold for dollars), but many of their costs are in roubles. That means their costs are increasing.
My guess (knowing Russia well) is that POLY will be forced into a position where they have to sell their Russian assets for a knockdown price to a figure in favour with the regime. And the Kazakh assets alone can't bear the burden of so much debt.
In short, get what you can whilst you can. I wasn't sure for a while, but I'm now expecting POLY to follow in the footsteps of POG.

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/7/2022 10:41

How down are you here Prat Punter?

[spacedust] 21/7/2022 10:24

Do poly sell in rubles? The ruble has been the strongest in decades. Aprsbtly Ukraine is winning the war according to Western media

[plat hunter] 21/7/2022 10:09

I did post to get ready for the pump...Rather ironic to see some very desperate names get a little excited but hey ho.Careful who you listen too, around these parts.

[peeks007] 21/7/2022 09:40

Can't see much future for this company. Very high debt, Russian assets will go for peanuts and a new Kazakh company that makes probably $200mn a year in profit. Not worth it. I sold out and put the money into S4 capital. At least that has good future prospects and strong balance sheet. Polymetal is basically bust. Sanctions have killed it.

[imastu pidgitaswell] 21/7/2022 09:19

T - maybe, maybe not. Pretty sure debt has peaked, based on the Q1 analyst call, albeit at a higher level than I expected. All that has happened is that cash and debt have been moved to assets and suppliers. Which will now be drawn on. The 'new' steady state position will be maintained from ongoing cashflow.

As mentioned before, why would they sell the Russia assets for a knockdown price - better to just keep on doing what they do, as the funds flow out (to keep the operations going) has been done. From now on, no more prepayment or inventory build up is needed. Use the cashflow for them to pay down debt, worse case scenario.

Roger - no. Some of their debt is denominated in roubles - so is valued higher when quoted in Dollars.

[rogerbridge] 21/7/2022 08:59

Presumably rouble strength will reduce $ debt.

[tigerbythetail] 21/7/2022 08:55

There's big trouble lurking in this RNS. Way too much debt and in current circumstances nobody is going to buy the Russian assets for anything more than a knockdown price.
Barring a near miracle (i.e. Putin getting assassinated and replaced by a moderate leader who stops the invasion of Ukraine) I don't see that Poly has much of a future. It's a pity, because it was a well-run company. But that's Russia for you.

[borisjohnsonshair] 21/7/2022 08:03

Yes Boris - spot on. Unlike that Trader465 moron!!!!

[imastu pidgitaswell] 21/7/2022 07:54

I recall from Q1 that they said net debt would peak at the end of June - $2.8 billion is very high.

It is based on 7% lower volumes production volumes (flat, or marginally higher prices), a build up of inventory because of China covid issues (so gap between production and sales - to reverse in Q3), but mainly supplier management - having to build up supplies of spares and kit and also (although they don't say this specifically) probably pre-payment of suppliers.

But having done all that, the process will now reverse, as ongoing cash generation exceeds ongoing expenditure on maintaining the current steady-state position. Note $0.5 bn cash and $0.4bn undrawn facilities.

Mind you, not good thing to think about the position if they had not withheld the dividend - we might hear something on that on the call today - I'm on the golf course so will miss it. If anyone wants to ask about it...

Anyway, full year production targets on track still - nothing has happened to the business here, it's still possible that anything could happen.

[togglebrush] 21/7/2022 07:17

webcast follow the link:
'
at 11.00 am (London) Conference code: 1493984

[imastu pidgitaswell] 20/7/2022 17:45

Don't know Tim - much the same when I last commented back in February. Which in some ways is good (it's not a POG), but, well, you know...

Anything could still happen, from 100% loss, to extending the limbo we're currently in, to recovery to 400-500 on the back of political developments, to sale of the Russia assets and retain the Kaz stuff only (anyone's guess as per yesterday's post), to (a long way in the future) to full recovery with things being valued purely on the basis of the financials - as they used to be. Such a value would be lower (can't see 2000 anytime soon...) but could easily exceed 1000.

Just the obvious - nothing has actually happened to the operations and future development, they continue as before, albeit less efficiently in terms of costs - but not much less, judging by the AISC estimate changed with the April update. We will see more tomorrow. Making over 200 cents a year per share, as they were doing, even at a lower ongoing level is worth more than a 200p share price.

It's all just speculation, and far away from the quantitative stuff I know. Sorry I can't be more insightful.

[togglebrush] 20/7/2022 17:44

Analysis of trades 20 July 2022
Negotiated trades are usually Institutional Trades


20-Jul-22
ALGO
_ALGO__
Off Book
___Off Book__
Negot
Negot
_¦_
All Deals


Time Band
__Num
Avg Value
__Num
__Avg Value__
__Num
Avg Value
_¦_
Avg Price


Hr 8-9
50
£5,954
265
£6,670
75
£5,340
_¦_
248.92


Hr 9-10
5
£1,646
150
£3,900
n/a
n/a
_¦_
223.07


Hr 10-11
11
£2,588
107
£3,200
n/a
n/a
_¦_
221.97


Hr 11-12
2
£155
28
£3,564
n/a
n/a
_¦_
227.38


Hr 12-13
0
n/a
42
£2,287
n/a
n/a
_¦_
225.29


Hr 13-14
1
£847
42
£2,830
n/a
n/a
_¦_
217.75


Hr 14-15
0
n/a
23
£5,874
n/a
n/a
_¦_
217.83


Hr 15-16
2
£7,361
45
£3,915
n/a
n/a
_¦_
222.14


Hr 16-17
1
£1,682
33
£6,328
n/a
n/a
_¦_
220.64


20/07/2022
__Num
_ALGO__
Off Book
___ Off Book
Negot
Negot
_¦_
All Deals


TOTAL
72
£1,685
735
£4,803
75
£5,340
_¦_
234.09


E&OE

[timydogy] 20/7/2022 16:50

Good to see you posting again Imastu, some good discussion over on LSE. What are your thoughts in here now, been five months on Sunday since we woke up to 800p from 1100p. I'm probably down similar to you, even being at my most optimistic, can't see me ever getting my money back in here. Thought ~400p was the floor, when it went sub 100p; well truly enlightening as to what the market can do in the face of fear and the unknown.

[1knocker] 20/7/2022 16:45

I am sure Putin must be really feel the pain when the western sanctions result in assets being given away by westerners to Russians. That must really hit him where it hurts. Meanwhile, Russian O and G revenue is the highest it has ever been, and Russian fertiliser commands premium prices too, likewise Russian wheat. What are Biden and Co going to do next, insist that he accepts free ammunition?

[xxxxxy] 20/7/2022 13:44

Russia.... Down. Down. Down.Russia has left Civilisation.Russia is Uninvestable.A will have to pay masses and masses and masses of compensation.Russia = FAILLearn the lessons.Never ever invest in Russia again.

[plat hunter] 20/7/2022 11:26

It's not to be good that's for sure. The shareholders will get the debt and the Russians will get the gold, literally.

[crt131] 20/7/2022 08:57

I just hope its not a fire sale or give away as if the debt is left to remaining assets in KAZ it will not bode well for shareholders. Just remember the assets in Russia are world class and should not be given cheaply at any cost. Good luck anyway.

[borisjohnsonshair] 20/7/2022 08:53

More like 200p in reverse

[peeks007] 20/7/2022 08:10

Hopefully it gets past 300p today with some luck

[ny boy] 20/7/2022 07:40

Yes way too risky, why take the risk, just wait to see what transpires and if good buy, doesn’t matter if you miss the first spike as then you buy to hold long term, if it becomes a safe play. Getting way better returns off SHIB, +60% so far, still another 440%+ to come this year if the crypto winter is over dyor

[blackhorse23] 20/7/2022 01:07

Could be delisted from LSE ? More likely