Plutus Powergen Share Discussion Threads

[bishopawn] 12/2/2018 14:25

Good day for the Market Makers getting all that cheap stock from those nervous maters and paters nosters.

[bishopawn] 12/2/2018 14:00

Good for the 401K if you are across the Pond, your SIPP or ISA if in this regulatory authority.

[clocktower] 12/2/2018 13:10

Interesting long-term play if it sinks a little further imo. You have done well with this bishopawn. On my watch list now.

[bishopawn] 12/2/2018 12:02

Current Market cap: £11.94 million.
That needs to be higher.

[bishopawn] 12/2/2018 11:57

Thanks for that Savvy; it can be a bit confusing for us oldies too, as well as the newbies.
A pivotal year indeed, if we get the gas sites coming on stream with merchant sales, which is a different and enhanced ball game. I would want to be IN rather than OUT of the shares, ahead of that bit of news, when it comes. IMHO>DYOR.
With the stated confidence of the directors in the recent Interims, that important turning point, implied in their word "pivotal" to describe 2018, should be not far off now.

[1savvyinvestor] 12/2/2018 11:29

Selby has been off the shelf for a while. I have however misremembered one element - here is the relevant page from the results ; "Capacity Market: PPG has been awarded a total of five Capacity market contracts for 15 years and one annual contract to date. "

The sites up and running are ;
*Attune (Plymouth)- 20mw
*Flexgen (Crumlin)- 20mw
*Valence and Precise ( Stow)- double site - 40mw
*Equivalence & Balance (Ipswich) - double site - 40 mw

Just to explain briefly to newbies. The names of each SPV are due to the structure of each company. Each one has 20MW.

The 2019 15 year awards are to Attune , Valence and Precise. the 2020 15 year awards are to Flexgen and Balance . Equivalence took this years 15 year price of £8.40. The next three declined to accept the low price on offer for 15 year contracts and will bid again next year.

[codydotcom] 12/2/2018 10:00

1savvyinvestor8 Feb '18 - 13:53 - 5105 of 5123
0 1 0
Suprised at today's auction . Good news is we already have six sites at a much higher rate : three at £18 and three at £22.....

-----------------------

Savvy, you're right that 3 contracts were picked up in the 2015 T-4 @ £18. But as I highlighted previously, they terminated the agreement for Selby on 20th Sept 2017. I don't recall seeing an official announcement of that, but the register doesn't lie.

Latest version of the 2015 T-4 register can be found here:

[marvelman] 12/2/2018 09:58

Cody

Your posts are certainly well informed and therefore informative. You do not dress anything up and ever since you started posting here the threads have been brought down to earth. I do not know whether you are invested here and I am not but your view on the investment case for PPG would be appreciated. I have noted that you have tended not to give a view on that up to now and should you choose to keep to that I would respect that. Regards.

[bishopawn] 12/2/2018 08:53

2018 is expected to be a pivotal year in the development of Plutus with our move into gas powered, energy storage and hybrid generation sites. The Directors view the year ahead with confidence, as we start the development of our new strategy and complete the execution of the Rockpool Investee Companies' site build outs.

[bishopawn] 12/2/2018 08:45

Cheap as chips at the minute. Overdone,I think,at this level of valuation. That's what drives the graphs at both extremes. This could have a sharp retracing back to the highs with the right kind of news about gas sites, merchant sales of energy which is always more lucrative, and partners.

[codydotcom] 09/2/2018 21:06

I wonder how the marketing of the £50m bond is going? I highlighted back in December that they seemed to be including triad revenue in their forecasts. (By the way, I’ve not found anyone who seriously thinks the decision will be overturned). And I highlighted concern about the assumed cm revenues here:

codydotcom - 13 Dec 2017 - 11:14:19 - 4843 of 5121 THE RISING POWER OF PLUTUS POWERGEN - PPG
Also the CM revenue assumes an auction clearing price of £26-28. Last year cleared at £22.50, and predictions for this year are generally lower. Rose-tinted assumption being made there.




Those things considered, I wouldn’t fancy the job of trying to find buyers for the bond. I’d like to hear how this is progressing

[marvin9] 09/2/2018 20:57

Tell you what Codi, you informative level headed posts have shut me up; your method of stating the obvious is put much better than the way I do it.

Really good to read your comments and get the full picture rather than read repetitive ramp.

[codydotcom] 09/2/2018 20:46

You’re welcome. Have a good weekend

[1savvyinvestor] 09/2/2018 20:43

Fair enough Cody. Have good weekend one and all. Greetings from Monaco!!

[codydotcom] 09/2/2018 20:38

I think you’re right there savvy. CM is still only just getting going, and it has many flaws. In truth, nobody knows where the long term mean will be. £18odd seemed disappointing in year 1 but would have been celebrated yesterday. This is a shock to the whole industry, I think. Word was that it would turn out low, but in a sweepstake at one major, the lowest guess was £13.

For PPG it must have been difficult in those final bidding rounds. They will be desperate to progress their projects but not at any price. Now they need to decide whether to press on regardless and hope for better in T-1s. If they build the plant without a cm agreement, they will only be able to get 1 year contracts and so will lose forward visibility of earnings. If they choose to wait a year, the Rockpool rollout is delayed and they run the risk of the same happening next year.

I’d like to see the board issue a strategy update in light of this

[1savvyinvestor] 09/2/2018 19:30

Cody; You may be right re CM. With TRIAD I know you have to be 100% available for the TRIAD periods to qualify .
Regarding this current CM round. The price was horrible for the whole industry but I see it as a measure of strength that Plutus were not desperate to achieve contracts at any price. Capacity mechanism for 3 sites is locked in at £18.60 for 15 years and another three at £22.60. Why agree to saddle another 3 with £8.60 for 15 years? Next winter may be completely different and prices may return to the medium or maybe a new market will kick in. As I said in a previous post we should all know that regulatory issues are probably the biggest threat to Plutus. So far the board has shown itself very quick to adapt to the challenges they face. I remain a strong holder but understand reticence of newbies and those sitting on a loss.

[rhug1966] 09/2/2018 14:54

CM is the gravy to top up existing revenue streams and not getting the price they wanted this year means they can reapply next year, hopefully with a better outcome. If it does go down to 1.25, I'll be buying more. I would buy now but funds are not available yet. Not worried at all.

[montynj] 09/2/2018 14:31

Bohemian, read post 5112

[bohemian13] 09/2/2018 14:15

The capacity auction result is a shock and bad news for plutus, how bad will be made clearer by the company in time.

I wouldn't be surprised to see a fall back to old support levels around 1.25p unless the company can provide reassurance that the auction result will not significantly effect the company's future development.

[asturius101] 09/2/2018 13:52

not back to decimal figures again surely?

[montynj] 09/2/2018 12:55

Thanks Cody..

[codydotcom] 09/2/2018 12:50

But CM is complementary to all the other revenue opportunities. Having a CM contract does not impact on their ability to make money from STOR, FFR or any other mechanism.

[montynj] 09/2/2018 12:42

Very well said 1savvy. Better not being in CM at such low prices when other opportunities

[1savvyinvestor] 09/2/2018 12:28

Very odd day on CM markets yesterday. All indications were that the price would be around £20 in the months leading up to the auction. It is likely that Plutus did not want to win contracts at such a low price as it would hamper them going after other revenues. Principle among these is STOR which has had strong price appreciation over the past 12 months and will represent the majority of Plutus' income in the coming years. They now have enough capacity to be involved in the BM market (Balancing mechanism). This is a big and important market where companies are ready on a minute by minute basis to switch on and off. FFR is always an ongoing source for them. So ; a little disappointing yesterday but not a huge problem.