Plutus Powergen Share Discussion Threads

[codydotcom] 02/3/2018 09:58

Also, I looked again into auction prices here:

There are two day ahead auctions. An hourly one (in the morning i believe) and a half-hourly one (which i guess is in the afternoon). If PPG held back their volume for the HH auction, then their returns would have been MUCH better.

31 periods with price > £100/MWh
£170.85 avg price of those 31 periods
£100 marginal cost
£70.85 average profit per MWh

70.85 * 20MW * 31periods * 0.5hrs = £22k per site, per day.

[codydotcom] 02/3/2018 09:48

Agree with that Savvy. Capturing what is available from Triad is key. I have a triad predictor which estimates the dates as 11th Dec, 8th Jan, and 26th Feb. Ipswich was RNSd as 'energised' on 16th Jan, so they will probably have missed the December peak, also maybe the January one. But the other sites should have captured them all.

This cold spell may last well into next week, and National Grid are warning about gas shortages. That may lead to fewer CCGTs running, and longer periods of higher prices. All good for PPG

[1savvyinvestor] 02/3/2018 08:47

Yes. Plymouth revenue was 1.2 million. a large part of that was TRIAD which all sites will get this winter. However this is our last winter with full TRIAD so replacing that income is the key here. £100 mwh full costs sounds about right . They will have made some tidy sums from the cold snap.
Gas news is the thing that will really move us. lower running costs and better margins running for longer periods.

[2pablo] 02/3/2018 08:21

Savvy will be the first to know, he's invested in Rockpool too I think

[bishopawn] 02/3/2018 07:58

I still maintain that Plymouth made over £1 million last year.

[bishopawn] 02/3/2018 07:57

Thanks cody for your knowledgeable analysis.

[codydotcom] 01/3/2018 19:22

The beauty of gas is that the marginal cost is so much lower under normal circumstances. So where the cost for diesel may be £100, the cost for gas may be only £50 or £60. This means there are more hours in which you can run, and the margin for every MWh is so much more.

[codydotcom] 01/3/2018 19:18

I think it is unlikely that they will have an active STOR contract for this current season. There are a number of reasons, which I can go into, but best not to cloud this post with it.

So they will be looking to sell their output via a PPA. This usually involves declaring their available capacity and marginal cost to a supplier, at day-ahead stage. I believe marginal costs for diesel sites are approx £100/MWh. So this volume/price combo may be entered into day-ahead (DA) auctions for each hour of the following day (or the PPA may be indexed to the DA auction price). If the auction outturns above their marginal cost, then their output is sold, and the profit would equal [volume * (auction price - marginal cost)].

I can't seem to find the results of yesterday's DA auction, so I have used the results of this morning's auction (for tomorrow) as a guide.

In the auction, 9 hours cleared at a price > £100/MWh. Of those 9 hours, the average clearing price was £123.79/MWh.

£123.79 average sell price - £100 marginal cost = £23.79 avg margin

£23.79 * 20MW * 9 hours = £4282 profit per site = £26,000 profit for 6 sites, for 1 day.

imo, e&oe etc

[codydotcom] 01/3/2018 19:13

I don't think these sites will be making £20k per hour. There are a number of reasons:

1) Those very high prices are set by balancing mechanism units (BMU), who are able to vary their prices anywhere up to 1 hour prior to delivery.

2) None of the PPG assets are BMUs.

3) Even in those very high periods, a lot of volume was accepted at much lower prices (circa £200-400/MWh)

4) They will sell their output ahead of time, either via PPA or day-ahead auction or (if they have their own trading function, which I don't believe they have) in the spot market. The market prices have been clearing at about £200-300/MWh for most of the periods where PPG will have been running.

5) We have to account for the costs of production. For a diesel genset, that is approaching £100/MWh

[bishopawn] 01/3/2018 16:47

From RNS 31/1/2018

Highlights

-- 120MW now in operation with a further 60MW targeted for 2018 excluding gas sites

-- Heads of Terms with JCB Power Products agreed to co-operate on site development and maintenance

-- Planning achieved for all 180MW partnered with Rockpool
-- Expansion into energy storage projects with London and Devonshire Trust
-- Strengthened gas site pipeline with development partners

----------------------

So, if we are right at thinking potentially £20,000 per hour switched per 20MW site, recent days could have seen at optimal figure of £120,000 per hour over the 6 X 20MW green diesel generators.

Good to see that we already have planning permission for a further 3 X 20MW generators using green diesel, excluding any future gas sites.

[2pablo] 01/3/2018 15:45

6 Mr BishopPawn - 2 singles and 2 doubles

[2pablo] 01/3/2018 15:45

6 Mr BishopPawn - 2 singles and 2 doubles

[bishopawn] 01/3/2018 14:58

Can someone reminds us how many 20 MW sites we have currently "active"?

[bishopawn] 01/3/2018 14:54

Or £20,000 per hour for one of our 20MW sites, like Plymouth.

[nw99] 01/3/2018 14:45

Backup power now attracting rates of up to £995 per MW hour

[bishopawn] 01/3/2018 13:55

People don't realise YET that Plutus will be a veritable money-machine, and here's hoping that next week will be significant for some long awaited news, or to put it somewhat differently, from next week onwards we will be in an imminent period with a high likelihood for news on the multiple gas sites.

[1renard] 01/3/2018 13:51

Cody ; Any idea how many hours are likely to be run at this price? Run for 5 hours and each site could make a large percentage of its yearly revenue in one outing!!

[bishopawn] 01/3/2018 13:50

Storm "Emma" is giving the wellie to Plymouth and the rest of the southwest, and I imagine that our Plymouth Site, which was the first to be commissioned, has been going like the clappers most days and most nights and producing very decent income for us all, well in excess of what we made last winter, well into 7 figures. And that is just one of our many sites. Happy days for some!!!

[1renard] 01/3/2018 12:59

So a 20 mw site could in theory be earning £20k per hour !

[codydotcom] 01/3/2018 12:55

A number of units are now providing power through the balancing mechanism at £995/MWh. This is the tightest the system has been for some time. To be expected, with the cold weather.

Interesting to note though, that a capacity market notice has not been issued. That suggests that National Grid still see enough surplus capacity to keep the lights on.

If a CM notice was issued, then all units in receipt of CM contract for this winter would be expected to be delivering energy onto the system, or face penalties. (I need to check the applicable dates. We may now be outside the window for CM notices)

[codydotcom] 01/3/2018 11:33

There have been a LOT of non-BM STOR units operating over the past 36h or so. I'm confident PPG will be making decent money over these cold days, but the data does not reveal which units are which.

A lot of the units are being paid £40-70/MWh, but some are getting up to £150-160

I'll dig a bit deeper this afternoon if i get chance. Out to lunch now.

[1renard] 01/3/2018 10:51

Again - tiny volume. Very hard to explain any fall. Everyone sitting on their hands until news drops.

[folderboy] 01/3/2018 10:33

Yet the share price falls?

[maybesum] 01/3/2018 10:25

UK gas supply struggling with demand currently because of the cold snap.......those bio diesel plants of Plutus must be humming like crazy.......!

[marvin9] 01/3/2018 09:28

Some nice informative posts for a change on the other thread and will add; PPG sites must be glowing with the amount of power being pumped into the grid during this cold snap; all money, money, money.