Plus Markets Group Share Discussion Threads

[harry f] 15/1/2013 16:25

...and



what scared them all off.... apart from icap?

[old thumper] 15/1/2013 16:11

On the subject of RIE's what's happened to the suggestion that back in Sep 12 there was another player trying to get a RIE from the FSA. Of the top of my head I can't remember who, but it was in play, it was a big name...it will come back to me.

[harry f] 15/1/2013 15:43

a very good point pjw, and one ive pondered myself recently. considering they didnt give them one back in 08/09 you'd probably be right.

add in a considerable pressure like "up to 1,000 jobs are on the line" and it's hard for the fsa to say no.

this raises another point and thats "the sale". i dont believe for one minute that a "sale" as described actually took place, so what did they say for the rest of the bidders to be put off?

was it? "we insist on keeping the tech support in house and anyone buying the exchange pays us £Xm per year in fees". it's easy to put buyers off if you want to. we all know what happened next.

that said, wyvern i assume have a contract with the company so i assume our new guys will be able to go back to them and ask what was offered and by whom on what terms.

for what it's worth.... as good as nothing in the grand scheme of things i do think our seller has left the room.

[pjw1956] 15/1/2013 14:41

Happy new year harry, and thanks

I think the big question for me harry is, was picking up a distressed exchange the only way that the FSA would grant ICAP a RIE licence?

[harry f] 15/1/2013 12:04

ot

it doesnt puzzle me at all. they like us have been robbed.

we're not walking away, why should they?

[old thumper] 15/1/2013 11:06

Harry,

Nice to hear from you.

What puzzles me is why Amara are still holding on as the African oil business doesn't seem to fit in with them? Bruce obviously this is right down he's alley. So the only thing I can think of is Amara's is waiting for some sort of compensation.

Time will tell, as per normal.

[harry f] 15/1/2013 09:57

happy new year pjw and all.

i've just been thinking again about the real value of the rie licence.

as we heard around the time of the sales the apparent cost of a licence was approx £4m, however this was assuming a company applying for one could acquire one. icap, in congruence with their long term strategy attempted this in the past and failed. therefore £4m is an irrelevant figure in the real world.

then ive mentioned before what valuation was put on this when amara invested. they came in around q4 2009 and placed at 7.5p and this at the time valued the group at around £29m of which £11m (2009 closing bs value) was tangible assets... in the backdrop of £8m annual losses. one could say all amari were doing was placing the majority of their valuation at the time on the intangible assets as they know the cash would dwindle.

if one steps back and derives the valuation amara (and i expect the company substantiated at the time), then i estimate that any realistic takeover bid in the period late 2009 to late 2011 would need to be in the region of 10p a share. this would be intangibles valued in the range say £18m-£28m + whatever tangibles were around at the time + takeover premium of 30%-50%.

i cant find any evidence that the value of the rie was diminished from the time amara invested until the time it was sold. if anything, articles such as the below make me belive that the rie licence is worth more now than 3 years ago.




digressing... in recent weeks it seems to me like the seller around is winterfloods, if it is they should be about done.

[yobynos] 30/12/2012 14:12

thanks daytraders

[daytraders] 30/12/2012 10:39

Hi, no, name change, i started a new thread, go here

[yobynos] 30/12/2012 09:59

i have,nt been on here before can anyone let me know what has happened to the shares for pmk have they been suspended wishing you all avery happy knew year and a prosperouone

[old thumper] 19/12/2012 11:34

Lions97,

You seem to be very on the Icap side, why?

As for "a shadowy group from Kuwait"
This claim needs some expanding for me to fully understand.

Oh, one other thing "the choice is between a FTSE 100 stalwart of the city" who would that be? as it isn't Icap they are a tiddler and getting smaller the way I hear down in the FTSE 350 world.

[lions97] 19/12/2012 10:30

How about the reason being that Plus is simply another in a long line of companies who's business model effectively disappeared in the last 4 years of financial crisis. Blame the board for dithering and not selling it off earlier, but that's incompetence or over optimism. Not some dastardly conspiracy.Do you really think the FSA didn't make it very clear who would be acceptable as the owner of one of only 5 RIEs (either directly or via a majority stake in plus). Lets see - the choice is between a FTSE 100 stalwart of the City, or a shadowy group from Kuwait who noone had ever heard of. Hmmm. Maybe, just maybe, nothing illegal happened at all.

[old thumper] 19/12/2012 05:08

I see Vince Cable shows interest in Comet, (no doubt because of the Tax payer's having to cough up for the redundancy's) yet when I wrote twice about Plus I got a blank, still the old MP mates have to stick together! they don't want any friction at the next G&T party at number 10 do they?

[harry f] 11/12/2012 11:35

sad to hear that you wont be around pjw, you've contributed massively here. hope your back soon and merry xmas and happy new year.... and hope you'll be back once the fireworks start.

looks to me like your links relate to them moving into india? is there anything more subtle i've missed? (as usual!)

[pjw1956] 11/12/2012 11:19

harry, I'm taking a long break now,thanks for all the good post this week and over the year. I will wish you and all holders a Merry Christmas and a Happy new year. I will leave you with this

FORUM TRADING OPTIMUS LTD
SANJEEV SARDA
Director, 2012.12.03
16 ST MARTIN'S LE GRAND , LONDON
EC1A 4EN, LONDON
ENGLAND



Created Date:07-Mar-2012 during the sale process

Domain Domain Name: OPTIMUSALPHA.COM
Created Date:07-Mar-2012
Expires:07-Mar-2013
Name Servers:ns.123-reg.co.uk
Name Servers:ns2.123-reg.co.uk
Registrant Domain Name:Sanjeev Sarda
Registrant Company:Sanjeev Sarda

[harry f] 11/12/2012 10:15

....following on from my last line, i don't believe icap are distinct at all.

one company announcement is made one day to sell ts to a related party, the following working day sx is sold and it has a contract with ts. sx is clearly related to ts, and ts was related to what was plus.

dunno what the prescribed rules are but it looks like icap are related to me.

[harry f] 11/12/2012 08:55

squirrel - you dont need to apologise at all, there is no commitment level or prescribed rules here.

your quite right when you say too much has been lost, imo something around 5p a share, maybe more, and it would take a good argument to convince me otherwise.

tangible assets were in short supply but the sx sale at a deep discount meant that ts acquired tangibles (the contract) off the back of it. their clearly related and i'd argue that icap are too.

the past directors would always know that irrespective of the stated version of events at the time, if the company was not wound up the events that occurred would be seen for what they were and the facts would converge with and substantiate the real situation. that's all what's happening.

with your analogy, you appear to assume that icap are somewhat distinct to the rest of the companies; we'll find out in time if this is the case.

[harry f] 10/12/2012 15:41

thumper

i see what you mean, didnt think about that in great detail. its tricky because you cant place now on or around the share price because if action kicks off it's not indicative of what it could be. placing 25mill shares at say 1p or 2p would help a lot although the funders would want to see the plan in a lot of detail.

i want icap to stay away from us. there is no formal reason for them to come calling and i want it to remain that way.

[old thumper] 10/12/2012 15:24

"Get the fund (well) over £5m now we're talking."

I meant if we get the investment funds well over the £5m level now we're out of the large investor range and into a business type of money level.

Oh I agree Icap aren't daft and that could allow them to see reason if they see trouble on the horizon. Most small company investors would wither away but hopefully this one is different.

[nitaroo] 10/12/2012 15:20

In heaven?
Best regards
MPFC

[harry f] 10/12/2012 15:12

thumper

not sure what you mean by point 5 but agree with the rest. i suppose it all comes down to the best way to approach it, if indeed it is them. with the silence i'm starting to wonder.

one more thing to note is icap aren't daft too, you don't build up a £2bn business from being so. they will appreciate that if my 1) to 3) that i mentioned last week kicks off then the genie can't be put back in the bottle but at the same time any potential action is unlikely to be directly against them so their powerless to react.

our "christmas" will come one day, just when?

[old thumper] 10/12/2012 14:58

harry,

Your no doubt right with your suggestions, but I've just been pondering over the whole matter from a different point of view.

1: Bruce and AD aren't daft.
2: They know to start-up an investment trust needs more than £1.3m'ish to be worth taking their time, as that money would go on office furniture etc.
3: They say they aren't looking for funding.
4: So to my mind they know there's a "pot of honey" is sitting out there to be taken.
5: Get the fund (well) over £5m now we're talking.
6; So as far as I'm concerned things are going on in the background, the big question is will Christmas come early?

[harry f] 10/12/2012 14:39

thumper

its not been done in any great detail but i don't think im far off.

the (? - tangibles) is probably around 0.5p a share ballpark imo.

the intangibles is the hardest bit so i stuck with the 4.5p that amari approx came in with. in actual fact there's a lot to consider, namely:

1) the market has improved.
2) does not take into account any intangible asset development over the last 2 years that surely has taken place. i find it hard to believe that misra created nothing in his 2 year association with the company.
3) it still appears difficult to obtain a new licence from scratch, icap tried and failed for example. no others have been granted as far as i know.
4) effects of mifid?

i cant see how the bulk of the intangible value, i.e. the rie licence would have diminished at all.

so ballpark i don't think it would be unrealistic to say these intangibles combined were worth 4p-6p a share.

with the widespread irregularities of the past and those that shrouded the sales i can't see major shareholders especially amara accepting this. it's just not going to happen.