Phoenix Spree Deutschland Share Discussion Threads

[davebowler] 20/7/2016 08:59

Liberum;
Taliesin Property Fund
9.5% valuation increase in H1 2016

Event
Taliesin Property Fund has reported a 9.5% increase in its portfolio value for H1 2016 after adjusting for disposals in the period. The portfolio value at 30 June 2016 was €289.2m and the average value per sqm was €2,440 (December 2015: €2,240 per sqm).

Liberum view
Taliesin's Berlin-focused portfolio is benefiting from a number of trends in the residential market which should continue to drive further gains over the medium-term. Residential values are still below replacement cost (which is rising on the back of increasing land costs) and the majority of portfolios offer reversionary potential following a significant increase in market rents as a result of constrained housing supply which is running well below demand levels.

We believe the Berlin residential market offers one of the most compelling long-term investment propositions and our favoured play in this sector is Phoenix Spree Deutschland. The average carrying value of Phoenix Spree's portfolio at December 2015 was €1,979 per sqm (12% below Taliesin's equivalent figure for the period) and we believe the company will comfortably exceed our 10% NAV total return forecast for the year. Furthermore, Phoenix Spree has a more shareholder-friendly fee structure with an 8% performance fee hurdle compared to a hurdle of Euribor plus 1% for Taliesin. Phoenix Spree trades on a 4.0% premium to NAV compared to a 11.8% premium for Taliesin and a 30% premium for the larger German-listed residential companies.

[davebowler] 11/7/2016 09:15

Liberum;
Phoenix Spree Deutschland (BUY)
Acquisition progress

Event
Phoenix Spree Deutschland has exchanged contracts or completed acquisitions on eight Berlin assets for an aggregate cost of €55m (excluding acquisition costs) since the start of 2016. The purchase price represents an average price per sqm of €1,705.

Five acquisitions completed in H1 2016 (four of which had been agreed in December 2015) with the remainder due to complete in Q3 2016. The portfolio's weighting to Berlin will be 72% following the acquisitions.

The properties comprise 32,300 sqm of lettable space with 486 residential and 23 commercial units and are expected to increase the fund's rental income by 16%. Four of the properties are classic "altbau" buildings constructed before 1914.

Two of the acquisitions have been structured as share deals and come with existing debt in place. The remaining assets will be funded from existing cash resources. Phoenix Spree expects to refinance the acquisitions and has already received indicative financing offers from German banks.

Liberum view
The assets fall within management's sweet spot of acquiring 10-40 unit Altbau buildings with scope for revaluation uplifts from asset management. The properties are under-rented as we calculate an average rent per sqm of €5.80 per month which compares to Phoenix Spree's new lettings in Berlin in 2015 which were achieved at €10.30 per sqm. The acquisition price per sqm represents a discount of 8.5% compared to the December 2015 value of Phoenix Spree's existing Berlin assets.

The run-rate for acquisitions is ahead of our expectations for the year. In total, we had forecast c.€70m of acquisitions in 2016 (including €20m that had been notarised at the prior period end).

Phoenix Spree currently trades in line with NAV which is significantly wider than its closest peer (Taliesin property Fund 11.8% premium to June NAV) and the average for the larger German listed residential companies (26.3% premium). We believe the current share rating represents a compelling opportunity to gain exposure to a portfolio experiencing strong growth dynamics with the outlook for future returns supported by the high level of reversion in the portfolio and favourable demographic drivers.

[davebowler] 08/7/2016 08:08

hTTps://www.asset.tv/video/schroder-real-estate-case-study-alexanderplatz-and-ostkreuz-berlin?

[davebowler] 25/6/2016 07:05

Taliesin Property still at a big premium to NAV of 19% -

[jonwig] 24/6/2016 06:09

A possible riser this morning: it was strong earlier when the 'leave' campaign was briefly ahead in the polls.

[jonwig] 17/5/2016 15:25

Woodford Management now has an interest in 21% of PSDL (20,006,946 shs). The beneficial owners are described as "clients of Woodford" but the holding is direct - in other words, one of his funds.

[thomasthetank1] 03/5/2016 11:15

Read Liberum's note on PHOENIX SPREE DEUTSCHLAND LT (PSDL), out this morning, by visiting hxxps://www.research-tree.com/company/JE00B248KJ21
"Phoenix Spree delivered a 12% NAV return in 2015 with rental growth and yield compression augmented by asset management initiatives. Excess demand coupled with inadequate supply points to continued strong rental growth. Privatisation also provides significant upside. We forecast 38% NAV return over the next three years. We see this as a compelling entry point ..."

[davebowler] 03/5/2016 09:46

Liberum report highlight;
38% NAV TR forecast by 2018
We have upgraded our NAV forecasts by 1% for 2016 and 2% for 2017
respectively. We now forecast an average NAV total return of 11.5%p.a. over the
three year forecast horizon.

[davebowler] 29/4/2016 14:09

Liberum highlights;
Privatisation gains

The privatisation process has started well with sales achieving an average of €3,912 per sqm (98% above existing €1863 Berlin portfolio value). Further schemes will be brought forward in 2016.

[davebowler] 29/4/2016 08:45

Liberum;
Phoenix Spree Deutschland (BUY)
Impressive 2015 results

Event
Phoenix Spree generated a NAV total return of 12% in 2015. This growth was underpinned by an 8% (our calculation) like-for-like revaluation uplift in the portfolio with the key drivers of value creation (rental growth, yield shift and asset management initiatives) all contributing to the increase.

The portfolio valuation of €282.8m at 31 December 2015 reflects an increase of 15.3% over the year. After adjusting for acquisitions and disposals, the increase over the year was 10.6%. We estimate a like-for-like revaluation movement of 8.1% for the year after making further adjustments for capex and a total like-for-like revaluation increase of 45% since 2010.


The fully occupied gross yield on the portfolio has tightened by 40bps in 2015 to 5.7% (2014: 6.1%) although this is not strictly like-for-like and part of the yield movement is due to acquisitions. The portfolio value per sqm is now €1,635 (€1,979 in Berlin) which is well below replacement cost.

Like-for-like rental growth of 4.8% was driven by an excellent year for new lettings. New leases were signed at an average 21.2% premium to in-place rents. New lettings achieved an average of €8.9 per sqm (9.8% above 2014’s lettings). Nuremberg and Furth experienced the strongest growth in rent per sqm (+8.9%) followed by Berlin (+6.5%).

In Berlin, the typical value per sqm of apartment blocks lags the price of apartments that have been split up and sold as single apartments. Phoenix Spree launched its first condominium sales project in 2015 to capitalise on this arbitrage opportunity. The first phase completed with 20 units sold generating an aggregate sales value of €4.9m which represented an average value per sqm of €3,912 (compared to the carrying value of the Berlin portfolio of €1,979 per sqm at 31 December 2015).

The balance sheet is in a strong position (net LTV of 42.8% at 31 December 2015) and is well-placed to fund future acquisitions following the £38m placing in early 2016.

Liberum view
Phoenix Spree is currently trading on a 1.3% premium to the December 2015 NAV which is still significantly lower than its closest peer (Taliesin Property Fund 16.4% premium to December NAV) and the average for the larger German listed residential companies (18% premium). Furthermore, the average carrying value of Phoenix Spree's Berlin portfolio of €1,979 per sqm is 12% below Taliesin's carrying value.

We believe the current share rating represents a compelling opportunity to gain exposure to a portfolio experiencing strong growth dynamics with the outlook for future returns supported by the high level of reversion in the portfolio and favourable demographic drivers. This is further underpinned by carrying values which are c.25% below replacement cost. We reiterate our BUY recommendation.

[jonwig] 28/4/2016 13:39

Final results, at a funny time of day -



I don't see anything to get concerned about: the currency risk just has to be swallowed if you're a holder. And PSDL ought to be a decent hedge against Brexit?

[davebowler] 26/4/2016 09:21

.................
Phoenix Spree Deutschland is a niche product with the potential to deliver decent returns and a growing level of income. If you are willing to accept the high level of risk it could make a good diversifying holding. The full year results should be released later this week.

[davebowler] 18/4/2016 10:46

Liberum
PSDL is currently trading on a 4.7% discount to our December 2015 EPRA NAV estimate which is significantly wider than its closest peer (Taliesin property Fund 27% premium to June NAV) and the average for the larger German listed residential companies (21% premium).

We believe the current share rating represents a compelling opportunity to gain exposure to a portfolio experiencing strong growth dynamics with the outlook for future returns supported by the high level of reversion in the portfolio and favourable demographic drivers. This is further underpinned by the company's strong balance sheet and the manager's excellent track record and strong alignment of interests with shareholders (c.13% owned by the property advisor). We reiterate our BUY recommendation.

[davebowler] 18/4/2016 09:24

Liberum view
Taliesin's impressive results were achieved on the back of a huge portfolio uplift in 2015 and we believe there is further growth to come in the Berlin residential market. Residential values are still below replacement cost (which is rising on the back of increasing land costs) and the majority of portfolios offer reversionary potential following a significant increase in market rents as a result of constrained housing supply which is running well below demand levels.

Our favoured play in this space is Phoenix Spree Deutschland which has also generated a material NAV uplift in 2015. Phoenix Spree has also begun privatising assets for sale and has achieved prices of €3,840 per sqm on the first phase of sales. Furthermore, Phoenix Spree's average carrying value of €1,900 per sqm for its Berlin portfolio is 15% below Taliesin and it has a more shareholder-friendly fee structure. Phoenix Spree trades on a 1.7% discount to NAV compared to a 14.2% premium for Taliesin.

[davebowler] 15/4/2016 11:01

Westhouse Taliesin update looks good for us-


For the year-ending December 2015, the adjusted NAV of the Taliesin Property Fund (TPF) rose to €31.44 per share. As at 31 December 2015, the value of the portfolio increased to €267.7 million, an increase of 27.9% after adjusting for property disposals and capital expenditure. The per square metre rate (psqm) stands at €2,240. It also announced that its first privatisation project, on Warschauer Strasse, had been almost completely sold at average prices of €3,750 psqm. It successfully refinanced its maturing loans in 2015 at lower interest rates and higher principal amounts and the loan to value at the year-end stood at 45.9%. We continue to recommend that investors buy TPF.

 

[grabster] 30/3/2016 10:45

PSDL ticker wrongly shown as PDSL in last paragraph

[davebowler] 30/3/2016 08:54

Liberum 21 March full extract-
Phoenix Spree Deutschland (BUY)
Positive read-across from Deutsche Wohnen's 2015 results

Event
Deutsche Wohnen's 2015 annual report (December period end) was released on Friday and the strong set of results has a positive read-across for Phoenix Spree. As a reminder, Deutsche Wohnen is an €8.8bn market cap German residential property company with 70% of its assets in Berlin.

Highlights of the results included a 29% increase in EPRA NAV and a 24% EPS rise. Other key takeaways include:

The main contribution to the growth in the year came from the company's Berlin assets. The Berlin portfolio is now valued at a 19.2x multiple of in-place rents (5.2% yield). Interestingly, Deutsche Wohnen also commented that this valuation is supported by portfolio transactions which traded at rent multiples in excess of 20x (sub 5% yield). The company also disposed of a Berlin city-border portfolio of c.900 units for an implied multiple of 23x (c.4.3% yield) in Q4 2015.
The improvement in prices for privatised residential units continued with an 18% uplift achieved on disposals in 2015.
Like-for like rental growth of 4.1% for the Berlin assets during 2015 which is the best-performing region in the portfolio. Significant upside potential remains with market rents 19% above in-place rents. Management have noted limited impact on re-letting rents from the rental cap regulations which have been in place since June 2015.
The current value per sqm of the portfolio represents only c.50% of replacement costs which are steadily rising.
Favourable demographics with a 5% population increase expected in Berlin by 2020 where the occupational market is already tight (1.9% vacancy) and new supply is well below demand.
Guidance for a c.11% NAV uplift and 30% dividend increase in 2016.

Liberum view
Deutsche Wohnen's results demonstrate a number of trends in the German residential market that should continue to benefit Phoenix Spree's portfolio. Phoenix Spree has already delivered a strong valuation update for 2015 (Download our previous comment here) and we expect the company will continue to generate double-digit NAV returns going forward. This is supported by the high level of reversion in the portfolio, market dynamics, favourable demographic drivers and strong balance sheet. We believe PDSL is one of the most attractive investment opportunities across the alternative funds space at the current share rating (5% discount to NAV vs. 24% premium for larger German peers and 15% premium for the company's closes peer Taliesin).

[davebowler] 21/3/2016 11:01

Liberum.....we expect the company will continue to generate double-digit  NAV returns going forward. This is supported by the high level of reversion in the portfolio, market dynamics, favourable demographic drivers and strong balance sheet. We believe PDSL is one of the most attractive investment opportunities across the alternative funds space at the current share rating (5% discount to NAV vs. 24% premium for larger German peers and 15% premium for the company's closes peer Taliesin). 

[jonwig] 18/3/2016 06:42

fastFT just now:

Deutsche Wohnen, the German residential landlord, has reported its best annual result on record and confirmed its outlook for 2016.

The property group, which oversees 148,218 units – most of which are residential – lifted net profit by a third to €1.2bn in the year to December 31, against a backdrop of high demand for property.

Michael Zahn, chief executive, said:

"With the above-average rent and value potential of our high-quality portfolio, our successful Disposals segment and value-enhancing acquisitions, we are better placed today than ever before."

The company said it was targeting funds from operations of at least €360m in 2016, from €303m in 2015, which was up 39 per cent on the previous year.

The board proposed lifting the 2015 dividend payout by 23 per cent to €0.54 per share.