Phoenix Spree Deutschland Share Discussion Threads

[tigerbright] 11/5/2017 08:50

I'm still fully invested in both tpf and psdl. No signs of a slow down here in Germany as of yet and the capital is still cheap relative to its European peers.

[jonwig] 06/5/2017 07:58

From IC via FT:

Buy: Phoenix Spree Deutschland (PSDL)

Shares in Phoenix Spree Deutschland are up sharply since 2015 yet still trade at a slight discount to forecast net asset value, writes Jonas Crosland.

Property investor Phoenix Spree Deutschland joined the London Stock Exchange in June 2015, so the latest results are for the first full year of trading as a listed company. Progress has been little short of meteoric, with funds raised at flotation and a £38m placing in March 2016 used to build a portfolio of residential properties in Berlin.

Adjusted net asset value rose by nearly a fifth to €2.73, while on a like-for-like basis rent per square metre rose by 5.3 per cent. Even better, rents on new lettings were up by 7.8 per cent. This helped to lift gross rental income by nearly a third to €15.9m (£13.5m), and the €78.3m spent during the year on 10 Berlin property assets — typically apartment buildings — is expected to boost rental income by about 17.5 per cent. There is also a strong reversionary element, with new leases signed at a 27 per cent premium to in-place rents, while continued demand pushed the vacancy rate down to an all-time low of 2.6 per cent.

The group is also monetising the arbitrage that exists between the value of an apartment block and the value of the individual apartments within it. These are being sold off at an average premium of 62 per cent to the value as part of the apartment block. And more blocks are being acquired with a view to crystallising further gains.

Analysts at Liberum are forecasting adjusted net asset value per share at the December 2017 year-end of €2.98.

[cerrito] 01/5/2017 13:29

Just read the Prelims.
I did buy a very few more after reading them and now feel I have enough certainly until I understand better the political and market dynamics of the Berlin property market.
Interested and indeed surprised that unlike TPF they did not mention the restrictions on privatizations/condominium sales. I will await the publication of the Annual Report and the discussion on key risks and see what they say on this and indeed other planning permission issues in Berlin. It may well be that all their properties are in parts of Berlin which do not have these restrictions but I would have expected them to have mentioned it.
Read the section on condominium sales-and see that progress can be slow in that some have vacant possession; I could not work out how many sales had been completed rather than notarized-also could not find the accounting policy of when they recognize a sale-ie on notarization or on actual completion. I mention this as the figures in Note 10-Gains on disposal for Investment property-are much less than the figures they bandy around in the section on condominium sales.
Interested the read that Berlin has the English disease on many planning permissions not being activated and also the Chairman Prosser must be a busy boy as I just read he interims of ALAI where he is also Chairman

[jonwig] 27/4/2017 09:17

Thanks Dave. Progress is focussed more on where they can develop their own local knowledge and less on places where they have to delegate.

Tigerbright - I agree about Berlin, though it's a cultural desert in summer! I read that some London banks were moving part of operations to Berlin rather than Frankfurt.

[davebowler] 27/4/2017 09:03

Liberum;
Phoenix Spree Deutschland (Mkt Cap £218m)
22% NAV return in 2016

Event
Phoenix Spree has generated a 22.3% NAV total return in 2016 with the EPRA NAV at 31 December 2016 of €2.73 per share. NAV performance has been driven by a strong letting performance and yield shift across the portfolio.

As previously announced, the portfolio valuation at 31 December 2016 was €423.8m which reflects a like-for-like increase of 19% over the year. This compares to a figure of 8.1% (our calculation) in 2015. Berlin was the strongest performing region in the portfolio with an uplift of 24% followed by Nuremberg and Furth (+12%) and Central and North Germany (+10%).

The fully occupied gross yield on the portfolio has tightened by c.90bps in 2016 to 4.8% (2015: 5.7%) although this is not strictly like-for-like, as part of the yield movement is due to acquisitions. The portfolio value per sqm is now €1,965 (€2,320 in Berlin) which remains well below replacement cost.

Rent per sqm rose by 5.3% across the portfolio on a like-for-like basis (Berlin +6.1%, Nuremberg and Furth +7.5% and Central and North Germany +4.4%). New lettings were signed at an average premium of 30.6% to passing rents and 36.8% in Berlin. Portfolio vacancy is at an all-time low of 2.6% after adjusting for units undergoing refurbishment.

The company has increased the focus on the high-growth Berlin market through acquisitions and a recent €35m disposal of the Nuremberg and Furth assets at an 11% premium to NAV. Berlin now accounts for 82% of the portfolio. €78m of new assets were agreed at an average value of €1,888 per sqm. The assets acquired during 2016 have been revalued upwards by 15% at December, more than offsetting the transaction costs. The average price achieved on condominium sales was €3,874 per sqm (67% ahead of current Berlin portfolio value).

Net LTV at 31 December 2016 was 39.4% (2015: 42.8%) and this should increase slightly as new acquisitions are likely to be funded with debt.

The company has also announced a final dividend of €0.043 per share (3.7p). Total declared dividends for the year are €0.063 (5.3p) which is 9% ahead of last year.

Liberum view
This is another excellent set of results from Phoenix Spree with the company's NAV coming in 9% ahead of our forecasts at the time of the interim results in September. The company's strategy of avoiding portfolio transactions and acquiring assets on a piecemeal basis is paying off given the attractive purchase price that has been achieved. The success of condominium sales at Boxhagenerstrasse is evidence of this with initial sales achieving €4,110 per sqm (59% ahead of July 2015 acquisition price).

The average price of the portfolio remains well below estimates of replacement cost. The company's Berlin assets are valued at €2,320 per sqm which is c.27% below replacement cost of €3,200 per sqm (including land). Replacement cost is being driven up by rising construction costs and scarcity of land. The market for single apartments (condominiums) remains very strong which is helping to drive demand for multi-family apartment blocks.


Phoenix Spree trades on a 2% premium to NAV compared to 16% for Taliesin and 8% for the listed German property companies. We believe that the opportunity remains compelling with the outlook for future returns supported by a highly reversionary portfolio and favourable demographic drivers.

Renewable Infrastructure

[tigerbright] 25/4/2017 05:59

Hi Dave. Yes, Munich and Hamburg are the two most expensive cities in Germany.The average price in Munich is now around 6000 Euros per square metre which is nowhere near the prices in Berlin. Therefore, as a capital city of the strongest economy in Europe, I'm betting Berlin prices will continue to rise. Far more people are arriving in Berlin every day than leaving. Usual caveats apply though - Berlin has a much higher ethnic population than Munich for example, who tend to be less well educated and hence earn less money. Also, Germany is a lot less centralised than other European countries where wealth tends to congregate around the capitals ie London, Paris etc. Thirdly, Germans are still on the whole very loathe to take on a lot of debt. The concept of a property ladder doesn't really exist here but that is slowly changing. All in all, the demographics (Germany is currently experiencing a baby boom) , strength of the German economy, low valuations compared to other major cities, and the low interest rates, makes me quite bullish about Berlin property.

[jonwig] 18/4/2017 18:59

Clausentum - if the assets can be sold above book value, the company's value will increase. (And this seems to be generally what's happening.) Cash flow (from rents) could actually fall if they're buying properties on lower yields, but this is less important than selling properties for capital gain.

[cerrito] 14/4/2017 14:33

Thanks Jonwig for reminding me that this threat is a reality-indeed in the urban conservation areas and we need a commentary on this in the PSDL AR-if not finals.

[jonwig] 14/4/2017 14:14

Cerrito - is the link in post #90 relevant?

[cerrito] 14/4/2017 12:27

As a TPFZ(but not TPF) and a PSDL holder, I read TPF accounts with interest and see that as in London planning is a scapegoat for Berlin not building enough homes.
I was interested to read the following as while I was fully aware of the threats of controls on privatization I was unaware that this had been enacted-I see that PSDL in their Jan 17 RNS were gungho on condominium sales-which as per my understanding(which please correct) is the same as privatizations.
Now that Berlin represents 82% of the portfolio I look forward to commentary on this in the Finals.
Quote
Within assets currently classified as investment properties a significant number now have full permissions in place to privatise apartments in the future. In particular, those properties in Berlin in areas which are either restricted in privatising or face the threat, we believe that around 85% of our apartments are, or shortly will be, free to privatise
unquote

[davebowler] 12/4/2017 10:18

Its a pleasure,Tigerbright.The difference in house prices in Munich compared to Berlin is dramatic I believe.

[tigerbright] 12/4/2017 10:08

Thanks from me for the update too, Dave. If it's any help, I've been based in Germany for the last five years and the rental market is as hot as its ever been. I'm based in Munich, rather than Berlin, but I think property markets will continue to go up across all the major cities in Germany. I have a few rentals myself and am invested in pdsl and talin property trust. Many reasons to be bullish imo.

[davebowler] 11/4/2017 08:57

Liberum re Taliesin -see last sentence;
Taliesin Property Fund (Mkt Cap £189m)
25% NAV return underlines strength of Berlin residential market

Event
Taliesin Property Fund's generated a NAV return of 25% in 2016. The key driver of returns was a 16.6% like-for-like portfolio valuation increase in the year.

The average value per sqm of the portfolio is now €2,700 per sqm (20.5% above December 2015). The valuation uplift reflects a combination of tightening yields, rental growth (+4.4% in 2016) and the privatisation potential of the portfolio. The company's first privatisation project completed in the year achieving average prices of €3,750 per sqm. Recent sale prices on the company's second privatisation project were in excess of €4,000 per sqm.

€34m of debt was refinanced during 2016 at significantly lower interest rates and the company expects to refinance a similar level of debt in 2017. The proceeds from the asset sales and debt refinancing enabled a capital return to shareholders of €2 per share.

Taliesin's LTV at 31 December 2016 was 42.2% (2015: 45.9%).

Liberum view
Taliesin's positive results were achieved on the back of a strong portfolio uplift and we believe there is further growth to come in the Berlin residential market. This is supported by market dynamics with new construction unable to keep pace with population growth. Berlin's population has risen by 8% over the past 10 years and is conservatively forecast to rise by another 7.5% by 2030. Completions are approximately 50% of the required 20,000 units pa. Residential values are still below replacement cost (which is rising on the back of increasing land costs).

Taliesin trades on an 11.9% premium to NAV compared to 2.3% for Phoenix Spree Deutschland. Phoenix Spree is our favoured play in this space given the current share rating and the valuation of their respective portfolios. We estimate Phoenix Spree's Berlin assets are valued at c.€2,400 per sqm compared to €2,700 per sqm for Taliesin.

[cerrito] 07/4/2017 21:30

Thanks from me as well Dave Bowler...happy with what I have and do not see myself buying or selling at this time

[pdriccio] 07/4/2017 19:35

Thanks for the post Dave. I'm keeping the faith!

[davebowler] 07/4/2017 08:17

Liberum;
Phoenix Spree Deutschland (BUY, Mkt Cap £215m)
Asset sale at 11% premium to book value

Event
Phoenix Spree has exchanged contracts to sell a portfolio of 17 properties in Nuremberg and Furth for €35.25m The properties were originally acquired for €13.9m in 2007/2008 and the sale price represents an 11% premium to the December 2016 valuation.

Following the disposal, Berlin will represent approximately 82% of the portfolio value. The divested assets represent all of the company's assets in Nuremberg and Furth. Proceeds will be used to reduce debt and fund further acquisitions in Berlin.

Liberum view
Nuremberg and Furth represented c.8% of the portfolio value and the portfolio will now be increasingly focused on the high-growth Berlin market. The sale is expected to be accretive to NAV after transactions costs and taxes. Assuming total costs of 5%, the NAV uplift would be c.0.7%.

We believe PDSL's portfolio offers the potential for sustainable long-term double-digit NAV returns. Phoenix Spree generated a strong valuation update for 2016 which has driven an estimated 19% NAV return for the year. We expect the company will continue to generate strong returns going forward. The shares currently trade on a c.2% premium to our estimated December 2016 NAV.

[davebowler] 23/3/2017 10:16

Liberum;
Phoenix Spree Deutschland (Buy, Mkt Cap £220m)
German residential property companies highlight sustainability of returns

Event
Recent results from large Germany property companies focused on the Berlin residential property market have demonstrated strong returns in 2016 and highlighted a positive outlook.

Deutsche Wohnen has a €16bn portfolio of which 76% of its assets in Berlin (111,000 units) and ADO Properties has a €2.3bn portfolio located entirely in Berlin. Takeaways from the respective results included:

Like-for like rental growth of 6% for ADO Properties was ahead of the company's expectations of 5% for the year. Deutsche Wohnen's portfolio experienced like-for-like growth of 3.5% compared to 2.9% for the overall portfolio. Significant upside potential remains with market rents 22% above in-place rents. Both companies are confident on the outlook for 2017 and have guided towards rental growth of 5% (ADO) and 3.5% (Deutsche Wohnen).
Research from Jones Lang LaSalle has indicated that asking rents in Berlin exceeded €10 per sqm per month for the first time in H2 2016. Despite the estimated 12% increase in 2016, average rents remain below the level of other large German cities and monthly housing costs in Berlin are also lower than most European cities.

Yield shift has driven a 28% increase in the average value per sqm of Deutsche Wohnen's Berlin assets over the year to €1,738 per sqm. The yield on in-place rents tightened for both ADO Properties and Deutsche Wohnen by c.100bps in 2016 (e.g. Deutsche Wohnen's portfolio yield on in-place rents tightened from 5.2% to 4.2%).
Construction costs continue to rise in the sector. Deutsche Wohnen estimate the average replacement cost is €3,200 per sqm including land which is significantly above the current value of Phoenix Spree's portfolio. As a result, most new development is focused mainly on the luxury segment or condominiums. New development of rental product is also constrained by a regulatory hurdle which requires greenfield projects to provide for 30% of the residential area at a subsidised rent level of €6.50 per sqm per month.
Liberum view
The results from the large German property companies confirm a number of trends in the German residential market that should continue to benefit Phoenix Spree's portfolio. Phoenix Spree has already delivered a strong valuation update for 2016 which has driven an estimated 19% NAV return for the year. We expect the company will continue to generate double-digit NAV returns going forward.

This is supported by market dynamics with new construction unable to keep pace with population growth. Berlin's population has risen by 8% over the past 10 years and is conservatively forecast to rise by another 7.5% by 2030. Completions are approximately 50% of the required 20,000 units pa. We believe PDSL's portfolio offers the potential for sustainable long-term double-digit NAV returns. The shares currently trade on a c.2% premium to our estimated December 2016 NAV.

[davebowler] 09/2/2017 12:36

PSDL values -at 1965 Euro per sq m -are at quite a discount to Taliesin's 2700 Euro per sq m, so there must be plenty to go for. Plus, TPF is trading at a 10% premium to its NAV of 37 Euros per share.

13/01/2017
The Board of Taliesin Property Fund Limited announces that it has been advised by the Company's property valuers, Jones Lang LaSalle, that the Company's property portfolio has continued to rise in value over the six months to 31 December 2016.

The preliminary valuation by Jones Lang LaSalle reported that the portfolio increased in value from EUR289.2 million as at 30 June 2016 to EUR318.0 million as at 31 December 2016. On a like-for-like basis, taking into account property sales in the second half of 2016 of EUR2.9 million and capital investments in the portfolio, this represents an increase of approximately 10 per cent. for the six month period.

This increase in value is a result of general market trends including a continued rise in rents and better reflects the privatisation potential of the portfolio given the price per square metre achieved so far for privatised units. The new valuation represents a per square metre value of EUR2,700 for the Taliesin portfolio.

Based on the Company's unaudited management accounts as at 31 December 2016 and the year end property portfolio valuation referred to above, the Adjusted NAV per share of the Company is estimated to be in excess of EUR37 per share as at 31 December 2016. This compares with an Adjusted NAV per share of EUR33.15 (reflecting the EUR2 per share return of capital during the second half of 2016) as at 30 June 2016.

Taliesin expects to announce its annual results for the year ended 31 December 2016 towards the end of April.

For further information, please contact:

Taliesin Property Fund Limited

[pdriccio] 18/1/2017 22:34

Nice post Dave. Cheers.

[davebowler] 18/1/2017 10:48

BUY
Target price 254p | Published price 243p | *Corporate Client of Liberum

Phoenix Spree Deutschland's (Phoenix Spree) portfolio valuation rose by 49.9% to €423.8m at 31 December 2016. We calculate a like-for-like revaluation uplift for FY2016 of c.17%, after adjusting for capex and net acquisitions. We now estimate an EPRA NAV of €2.66 per share (230p based on the current FX rate) at 31 December 2016. We believe that the company continues to offer compelling value at the now c.5.7% premium, given the performance to date and potential for further NAV growth from a highly reversionary portfolio. BUY

Berlin assets continue to drive growth

Phoenix Spree has announced a portfolio valuation of €423.8m as at 31 December 2016 (FY2015: €282.8m). This reflects a headline increase of 49.9% over the year. After making adjustments for acquisitions and disposals, the like-for-like increase was 19.4% (FY2015: 10.7%) and after adjusting for capex we estimate a like-for-like revaluation gain of 17.3% (FY2015: 8.3%). The valuation uplift has been driven by yield movements, rental increases, the impact of property upgrades and the €87m net impact of acquisitions, disposals and condominium sales.


The portfolio value per sqm is now €1,965 compared to €1,755 in June 2016 and €1,635 at 31 December 2015. The gross initial rental yield is now 4.8% compared to 5.7% at the end of December last year.

All geographical regions experienced significant valuation gains over the year, particularly Berlin which gained 24.3% on a like-for-like basis. The Berlin property market has continued to perform strongly, with a transaction volume of €13.7bn for the year, of which €6.3bn arose in Q4 2016. Nuremberg and Fürth and Central and North Germany increased by 12% and 10.4% respectively.

18.5% FY2016 NAV TR estimate

We now estimate an EPRA NAV of €2.66 per share (230p based on the current FX rate), representing a 6% upgrade to our forecast of €2.51 made following the publication of the June 2016 interim results. This equates to an estimated NAV total return for 2016 of 18.5%, well in excess of the company's 8-10% per annum target over the next three years.


Transactional activity to drive further growth

During the year Phoenix Spree completed c.€74m worth of acquisitions- four properties in Berlin, announced in October and a package of eight properties in Berlin, comprising 486 residential and 23 commercial units. In Q4 2016 the company notarised the acquisition of a further three property packages in Berlin, consisting of 102 residential and 9 commercial units, for an aggregate purchase price of €19.9m or €2,089 per sqm. The acquisitions are expected to complete in early 2017 and add c.4.2% to rental income. Additionally, the sale of a non-core mixed use property was also notarised before the end of the year; the sale proceeds of €3.8m reflect a 18.8% premium to the 30 June book value. 22 condominium sales were completed or notarised during the year for an aggregate value of €5.7m at an average price per sqm of €3,762.

The company estimates a portfolio value of €437.4m as of 18 January 2017, which includes the aforementioned notarised but not completed transactions.

In order to fund these acquisitions and manage its balance sheet, the company has committed or drawn a total of €103.5m of new debt in during H2 2016. This consists of €59.1m that has been successfully refinanced, new loans totalling €19.9m and €20.2m of equity released from the portfolio of the agreed €22.3m. In the past 24 month 98% of the Phoenix Spree's existing debt; since June 2016 the average loan maturity has been extended from 5.5 years to 7 years.

Valuation

Phoenix Spree now trades on a 5.7% premium to our estimated December EPRA NAV, with the share price up over 20% over the course of H2 2016. Phoenix Spree's closest listed peer, Taliesin Property Fund, trades at a premium of 18.7% to its last published EPRA NAV, while the average premium for the larger listed German residential companies is now 13%.

The premium rating reflects the attractiveness of the investment opportunity given the beneficial structural forces in the Berlin residential property market and the management's success in realising portfolio upside. However, we believe that the opportunity remains compelling with the outlook for future returns supported by a highly reversionary portfolio and favourable demographic drivers. Rising rents are a result of constrained supply and residential values are still below replacement cost (which is rising on the back of increasing land costs). This is in addition to the management's excellent track record and strong alignment of interests with shareholders.

At these levels we believe that Phoenix Spree offers considerable value given the potential for NAV growth. Our forecasts assume only 25bps yield compression over the period to December 2018 and transactional evidence would suggest these numbers are conservative. Every additional 25bps of yield compression would add c.6% to our NAV forecasts.

[jonwig] 18/1/2017 09:32

Cerrito - yes, it was meant to be pretty rough and ready.

[cerrito] 18/1/2017 09:13

Jonwig, I think you need to add in the deferred tax, other liabilities, payables etcet; too bad they could not/did not give us an estimated NAV like TPF

[jonwig] 18/1/2017 07:37

Property valuation (19.4% uplift, L4L):



Have I got my numbers right?
Portfolio €424m, debt €203m, no. shs 70m, NAV €3.16 or 272p.