Phoenix Spree Deutschland Share Discussion Threads

[jaws6] 05/10/2015 07:36

hxxp://www.thelocal.de/20151005/report-up-to-15-million-refugee-arrival-in-2015

[jonwig] 28/9/2015 13:40

Thanks for recent encouraging posts.

I follow this also through contact with a relative ("in-law") with connections.

He says: the German government is buying up empty properties in large cities in order to house migrants. (Flats, entire blocks?) He suspects there could be an element of compulsory purchase. He does no know what the prices paid are, but shortages are inevitable.
Also, the supply of flats is dire in the Köln-Bonn area - his son is searching.

My only market-sensitive worry here is whether the German government is paying market or discounted rents. And I'm not convinced that the government in Berlin will allow market prices to determine the outcomes, which would be cause for worry.

This is a bit off topic, but anyone interested in the German immigrant question might find it interesting:

[davebowler] 28/9/2015 10:30

Relevant extract from TPF announcement above -very encouraging for us holders-

Taliesin Property
BACKGROUND TO AND REASONS FOR THE PROPOSAL

The latest Jones Lang LaSalle valuation report increased the value attributable to the Company's portfolio by EUR16.1 million to EUR228.2 million. The Company believes that two factors are driving this - the increasing availability of bank financing and the growing demand in Berlin from private individuals to purchase their apartments.

In recent months, the Company has successfully refinanced a maturing debt facility, managing to both reduce the interest rate charged on the loan and significantly increase the size of the facility. The Company has also been able to secure new development financing on its Warschauer Strasse project. This progress demonstrates the increasing availability of bank financing. The second factor driving an increase in the value of the Company's portfolio is the increasing demand to purchase apartments. The availability of cheap financing and the dearth of yielding alternatives has led to a strong demand to buy apartments in Berlin. Moreover, supply to this market is being held back by the continuing lack of approvals for new projects and by delays. At the Company's Warschauer Strasse project 20 of the 25 residential units have been reserved for sale.

This strong demand is one reason why the market is now beginning to better value properties that lend themselves to privatisation. Valuers have been further encouraged by a change in accounting standards, and are now beginning to assign more appropriate values to buildings with demonstrable improvement options. Properties are now being valued not for their rental income alone but increasingly for their privatisation and/or development promise. The Company expects this trend to accelerate as apartments in Berlin continue to achieve premium prices.

Given the increasing valuation of the Company's portfolio, the equity released in the recent refinancing and the fact that the proceeds from the first privatisation sales are starting to be received, the Board believes that it is now the appropriate time to put in place a mechanism to enable the Company to make capital returns to Ordinary Shareholders in a cost effective manner.

[jonwig] 23/9/2015 05:49

Citywire:

The recent market volatility has prompted Eclectica Asset Management's Hugh Hendry to review the ‘idiosyncratic’ opportunity in German residential property.

Hendry sees the strong macro backdrop for the sector as being ‘nuanced by a fundamental local property story and a compelling yield play’, in his monthly investment update.

He added: ‘European monetary policy is now set at a level which is at long last appropriate for the less productive nations, such as Spain and Italy, but certainly too loose for more productive countries like Germany.

‘This means that German asset prices should appreciate relative to other European assets.’

Hendry feels that with the uncertainty surrounding Chinese growth, domestic assets such as German property are probably a better play than the huge car and chemicals exporters that dominate the Dax.

He also highlighted how demographic change is supporting the German property market.

‘The German property market is changing as the population moves away from rural and eastern areas, in favour of large cities and industrialised parts of North Rhine-Westphalia,217; Hendry said

‘Vacancy rates are low and falling in these areas, and so pressure on housing stock means that prices are final rising from a low base.’

Hendry also highlighted how the ‘imbecilicR17; decision by authorities to introduce rent caps for existing tenants has resulted in rents crawling up by 2-3% per annum.

He outlined how this has discouraged developers to build new homes in Germany despite the desperate supply shortage. With new supply costing around €2,000/sqm to bring on, he believes rents needs to go up between 60-80% to incentivise new supply.

‘So what happens if rents re-price to the level required to bring on new supply?', Hendry questioned. ‘Under this scenario you could get 150% upside to the existing companies in their current corporate structure without doing anything too daring to the balance sheet.’

[davebowler] 16/9/2015 08:42

Liberum;
Phoenix Spree Deutschland Ltd (BUY, TP 173p)
Manager strengthens German operational team

Event
PMM Partners (property advisor to PSDL) has appointed Jorg Schwagenscheidt as CEO of PMM Partners Germany GmbH. He has more than 30 years of relevant industry experience and was previously co-CEO of GSW Immobilien AG (Berlin's largest residential property company) for 8 years until it was acquired by Deutsche Wohnen for €1.8bn in 2014.

Jorg Schwagenscheidt will head up PMM's German operation including the asset management of the portfolio and the identification of potential property acquisitions.

Liberum view
We regard this as an excellent appointment for the property advisor and PSDL which should reassure shareholders of the advisor's intention to maintain strong operational performance and to grow the business over time. PSDL trades on a 6.6% discount to NAV which compares to a premium of 11% for the large German residential property companies and a premium of 20.9% for Taliesin Property Fund (PSDL's closest peer). We maintain our BUY rating on PSDL following strong performance in H1 2015 (NAV +6.3%) and the potential for further value creation from the reversionary portfolio.

[jaws6] 04/9/2015 14:00

good point .

[4spiel] 04/9/2015 12:00

Pressure of population good for German property as indeed it's good for UK property. the big difference is Germany is in a cheaper euro. Price of this stock not much different from London Metric.

[jonwig] 03/9/2015 11:20

I assumed some people were unloading, as a large 'sell' often filled a lot of smaller 'buys' recently, but shorters? The potential rewards from that must have been tiny.

I doubled up my holding on Tuesday morning.

EDIT: sterling declines vs euro are helpful.

[4spiel] 03/9/2015 11:00

The shorters get screwed here ! they are just wiped out !

[4spiel] 01/9/2015 07:38

As for future earnings growth I think it would be satisfactory if they simply keep the properties fully let any further increases are a bonus.

[jonwig] 29/8/2015 06:41

Thanks for reminder. Strangely, I missed the announcement yesterday - two other portfolio companies reporting. I'd have added to my holding.

So NAV at 30/06 was 155p using forex of £:€ = 1.41. Nearer 160p today. Discount should narrow as company gets more recognition.

Can NAV grow at an annualised 17% for the forseeable?

Dividend of 1.3p ... small, as you say, but expect around 4p for full year.

[4spiel] 28/8/2015 18:50

Noticed very satisfactory half year results of August 28th showing strong demand and 24 per cent increase in rents on new lettings. may in part be due to pressure of population/ immigration. Small dividend half year dividend October 9 paid in sterling however current weakening of sterling against euro means strength for now in the assets. So passes as a growth stock hopefully the yield will grow too !

[jonwig] 29/7/2015 07:10

Acquisition of apartment complex in Berlin, plans to renovate and sell individual homes:



It's about 20 years old, so OK, the area itself is in the old East: typical 'village' atmosphere that you used to get in much of London.

[4spiel] 17/7/2015 16:45

With no disrespect - 'checked' Jonwig I was referring only to the fact there have been more buys than have been shown. Good if become a ' safe haven ' ! and SRE too ? Conceptually both good or I would not buy - yes currency issues but primarily the motivation of those running the businesses. You hope that's good too for investors- like you and me !

[jonwig] 17/7/2015 16:09

4spiel - if you check my post #7, I remarked on the same thing: the quote is something like 143 - 147, but the true spread is within 143 - 144.

On your post #9, this could get safe haven status (like Bunds), except, of course for the EUR:GBP rate which could be a problem.

[4spiel] 17/7/2015 15:34

Many transactions showing in different places today. My very small buy at 1.4379 shows as a sell. discreet enquiries elicited that is not the only one !

[4spiel] 17/7/2015 11:36

I don't like to miss out on this. But I have only nibbled. German property not as cheap as it was. But £. maybe overvalued against € long term if short term it goes higher overshooting as UK sucks in more imports and has less incentive to produce ? assets proxy DMark whatever. I remember a similar company not so long ago being taken over by bigger German company at 38 cents.

[jonwig] 13/7/2015 07:38

Bought this morning: Greece "agreement" should help take some pressure off the Euro?
For now!

[jonwig] 11/7/2015 13:51

The trades/price action was very strange yesterday: I tested at 08:00 and was quoted 147.5 to buy on 142 - 147.5, so I left it alone. The crude quote hasn't shifted today and heavy trading was mostly at 143 - 144.
You'd think after an IC tip and heavy trading, there would be small buys, but why so close to bid, and why no movement?
(They were O trades so through market-makers, not SETS.)

[jonwig] 10/7/2015 07:09

"BUY" tip in IC this morning. Result: the normally tight spread has widened and I was quoted the full offer (147.5). Bid 142.75. Left it alone.

[jonwig] 26/6/2015 08:12

Some key points:

• NAV at 31 Dec 2014 168p, EPRA NAV 160p. Full valuations Dec, updates June.
Using current exchange rates, EPRA NAV translates to 145p. (Forex 1.41 vs 1.28.)

• Initial dividend 2.5% of NAV, annually. Progressive thereafter. Declared in euros, paid in sterling.

• Property advisor fees basically 1.5% of NAV and performance fee 20% of uplift if NAV growth exceeds 8%pa.

• Simplistically, gross assets €160m, liabilities €60m, equity €100m.

• Approx. 70m shares admitted.

• Predominantly residential in major German cities. mostly Berlin.

Worthwhile investment proposition? Chief risk is currency.

[jaws6] 15/6/2015 08:12

please See DT Annington news today .just google
They non stop talking on CNBC